Responsible Investor Portfolio Weekly Update, February 20th, 2021 | $TCEHY $NEM $BK $SYF $CLIX $GRUB $PCG $LVMUY $LRLCY $STLA $IMPJY $TERRF $DSV.CO $DANSKE.CO $BRK $UMC $JD $ADSK $GMAB $NIO $CMG $OCDGF $AVGO $ABNB $VIAV $MSFT $TRYG.CO $ADBE

The Big Picture

The markets were down this week as the rising 10-year treasuries spooked investors who are concerned that if the uptrend continues it might induce a pull back on the stock market. The counter-argument is that raising interest rates are caused by inflation which would be indicative of a solid economy. The covid-19 stimulus package is expected in March. Q4 earnings have mostly beat expectations and a few additional ones are due to be published over the next couple of weeks.

Vaccine news were mixed: on the negative news front, a US study showed that the $PFE vaccine is less effective on the south-African variant; on the flipside, data from Israel suggests that the effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine is not impaired by lengthening the time between two doses which would increase the number of people who could get the first jab.

Market Performance

Most indices finished lower this week: in the US the Nasdaq led with a 1.6% loss, followed by the S&P500 (-0.9%) while the Dow was marginally higher (+0.1%). The Stoxx gained a meager 0.2% while the Italian index retraced -1.2%. The Danish OMX20 fell 1.1%. The US Dollar was unchanged relative to the Euro. Crude $oil retraced 0.5% and $Gold finished 2.2% lower. $BTC-USD gained 12% as the cryptocurrency flies past the 50k$ mark.

Earnings

$NEM reported a Q4 earnings beat this week as gold price rose and despite a reduction in gold production in its mines. The EPS more than doubled from the same quarter in the prior year with in-line income; the company guided higher on the basis of projected output and hiked the dividend from 0.4$/share to 0.55$/share which corresponds to a 3.81% forward yield.

$BRK-B latest 13F filing revealed the most recent changes in stake in the company positions including important divestments (eg $PFE and $JPM) and new holdings (eg $VZ and $CVX).

Notable earnings this week included $DE who crushed expectations and gained 9.9% on the news and $WMT who underwhelmed despite a good quarter and a stable outlook and slid 6.6%.

Returning to our portfolio, next week $PCG, $ADSK, $GMAB.CO and $BRK-B will report their Q4 earnings.

Dividends

$SYF paid its quarterly dividend on February 16th. Most Danish companies go ex-dividend in March, while Italian stocks traditionally pay an annual dividend in late May and US stocks distribute quarterly dividends.

Portfolio Performance

Our portfolio retraced 0.6% this week whereas the weighted average of the relevant market indices finished 0.7% lower which means that we beat the market by 0.1%.

Among this week’s winner we had $JD (+6.8%) and $DANSKE.CO (+3.1%). Two of our Italian stocks, $RWAY.MI and $INW.MI finished 6% lower, whereas $WBD.MI gained 3.4%.

Our Responsible Investor portfolio is now up 23.5% (24.4% including dividends) in 38 weeks. We are about 60% in stocks & ETFs and 40% in cash. On my watchlist this week I have $NIO, $CMG, $WMT, $MSFT, $AMBU-B.CO and $OCDO.L.

The table below summarises the portfolio performance since inception.

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Responsible Investor Portfolio Weekly Update, February 13th, 2021 | $TCEHY $NEM $BK $SYF $CLIX $GRUB $PCG $LVMUY $LRLCY $STLA $IMPJY $TERRF $DSV.CO $DANSKE.CO $BRK $UMC $JD $ADSK $GMAB $NIO $CMG $OCDGF $AVGO $ABNB $VIAV $MSFT $TRYG.CO $ADBE

The Big Picture

It was a rather uneventful week with most indices finishing with moderate gains. After months of headlines dominated by the US presidential election, Brexit and rising Covid-19 numbers, the narrative seems to lack negative arguments and the bulls thrive. Record high debt and prolonged borrowing does not appear to be of concern for the markets which find their support on the tripod consisting of earnings beats, stimulus bill and positive vaccine news. The employment numbers published this week were mostly in-line and almost ignored, however next week the calendar features data which could affect the markets.

Market Performance

All indices finished higher this week: in the US the Nasdaq led with a 1.7% gain, followed by the S&P500 (+1.5%) and the Dow (+1.0%). The Stoxx gained 1.1% and the Italian index keeps ascending (+1.4%) as Mario Draghi’s new government is sworn in today. The Danish OMX20 finished 1.8% higher. The US Dollar gained 0.6% on the Euro. Crude oil is now back to pre-Covid levels and $Gold finished 0.8% higher. $BTC-USD shot to the upside by 23% following the controversial announcement by Elon Musk about $TSLA investing 1.5 billion USD in the cryptocurrency.

Earnings

Three stocks of our portfolio reported earning this week.

$DSV.CO reported Q4 earnings on February 12th with a revenue beat and in-line EBIT. The company declared a 4 DKK dividend for 2020 which corresponds to 0.35% yield at today’s price level. The stock gained 10.4% this week due to these results and the positive outlook.

$OR.PA announced the 2020 results this week. The company reported revenues of 28 billion € and operating profit of 18.6%. The e-commerce revenues increased by 62% and the annual dividend has been set at 4€ per share. The outlook remains positive with a projected growth of 4.8% in Q1 2021 despite market volatility and uncertainty.

$ELC.MI reported the Q4 earnings and the preliminary 2020 results. While the company has seen a decline of sales with respect to the previous year, the Q4 revenue was up 15% relative to Q3 driven by its cooking segment. The stock was up 12.1% this week and 35% overall since we bought it.

Notable earnings this week included $DIS who beat expectations and announced more than 90 million Disney+ subscribers, a threshold that only 9 months ago they were expecting to reach no sooner than in 2023.

Returning to our portfolio, $NEM will report their Q4 earnings next week.

Dividends

$SYF went ex-dividend last week, the quarterly dividend is payable on February 16th. The quarterly dividend for $BK was paid on Friday. Most Danish companies go ex-dividend in March, while Italian stocks traditionally pay a dividend in late May and US stocks distribute quarterly dividends.

Portfolio Performance

Our portfolio gained 3.2% this week whereas the weighted average of the relevant market indices finished 1.4% higher which means that we beat the market by 1.8%.

$WBD.MI gained more than 10% supported by the prospect of infrastructure investment in Italy thanks to the the EU Recovery Fund. $UMC had another great week with a 12% gain – the stock is up 77% in less than 4 months.

Our Responsible Investor portfolio is now up 24.0% (24.9% including dividends) in 37 weeks. We are about 61% in stocks & ETFs and 39% in cash. On my watchlist this week I have $NIO, $CMG, $VIAV, $MSFT, $AMBU-B.CO and $OCDO.L.

The table below summarises the portfolio performance since inception.

Responsible Investor Portfolio Weekly Update, February 6th, 2021 | $TCEHY $NEM $BK $SYF $CLIX $GRUB $PCG $LVMUY $LRLCY $STLA $IMPJY $TERRF $DSV.CO $DANSKE.CO $BRK $UMC $JD $ADSK $GMAB $DVA $CMG $OCDGF $AVGO $ABNB $VIAV $MSFT $TRYG.CO $ADBE

The Big Picture

Last week’s drop already seems like a distant memory as the markets field significant gains this week with some indices reaching new all time highs. There is an inherent inconsistency between the stocks, the dollar and the treasuries all going up at the same time, however: at some point something has got to give. Positive Q4 earnings keep pouring in and negotiations for the stimulus bill continue. On the vaccine front, the $JNJ vaccine continues to attract attention and reports postulate that preventative measures as well as vaccinations start to reduce infection rates and hospitalisations.

Market Performance

All indices finished higher this week: in the US the Nasdaq led with a 6.0% gain, followed by the S&P500 (+4.7%) and the Dow (+3.9%). The Stoxx gained 3.4% and the Italian index gapped 7.0% higher as Mario Draghi accepted the task to form a new government. The Danish OMX20 finished 3.9% higher. The US Dollar gained 0.7% on the Euro. Crude oil was markedly higher while $Gold finished 1.6% lower. $BTC-USD gained more than 10% continuing its recovery from the sharp January fall.

Earnings

One of our stocks reported Q4 earnings this week. $DANSKE.CO presented its 2020 annual report on Thursday and the results were in-line. The Danish bank continues on its journey to increase its profitability after the money laundering scandal that hit it a few years ago. The stock was up 6.7% this week.

Notable earnings this week included $AMZN and $GOOG who beat on both the top and the bottom line by a wide margin. The e-commerce and cloud service giant also announced Jeff Bezos stepping down as CEO and passing the baton to the executive in charge of AWS – Amazon’s profit machine.

Next week two of our stocks will report their earnings: $DSV.CO and $OR.PA.

Dividends

$BK went ex-dividend last week, the quarterly dividend is payable on February 12th. Most Danish companies go ex-dividend in March, while Italian stocks traditionally pay a dividend in late May and US stocks distribute quarterly dividends.

Portfolio Performance

Our portfolio gained 5.9% this week whereas the weighted average of the relevant market indices finished 4.7% higher which means that we beat the market by 1.2%.

$WBD.MI jumped 17.6% and is now in the black for the first time since we purchased it. $ADSK gained 10.2% after three consecutive weeks of decline. $SYF rose 10.8% thereby erasing the loss from the previous week.

Our Responsible Investor portfolio is now up 20.6% (21.5% including dividends) in 9 months. We are about 60% in stocks & ETFs and 40% in cash. On my watchlist this week I have $DVA, $CMG, $VIAV, $MSFT, $AMBU-B.CO and $OCDO.L.

The table below summarises the portfolio performance since inception.

Responsible Investor Portfolio Weekly Update, January 30th, 2021 | $TCEHY $NEM $BK $SYF $CLIX $GRUB $PCG $LVMUY $LRLCY $STLA $IMPJY $TERRF $DSV.CO $DANSKE.CO $BRK $UMC $JD $ADSK $GMAB $DVA $CMG $OCDGF $AVGO $ABNB $VIAV $MSFT $TRYG.CO $ADBE

The Big Picture

While hundreds of earnings were published this week reporting better than expected earnings, the narrative was dominated by the retail-driven short squeeze of a number of heavily shorted stocks. The volatility that ensued resulted in two steep declines on Wednesday and Friday which sent the US stock markets more than 3% down. Some labelled this as a battle between generations or ‘classes’ of investors: to be honest it seems more like irresponsible investing and a failure of the stock market regulators to me.

Despite this decline, however, the bullish sentiment seems intact and supported by the ‘tripod’ consisting of positive earnings, vaccine optimism and the forthcoming stimulus bill. There were several positive vaccine news this week: $NVAX reported 89% efficacy in the UK trials and 60% in South Africa, the EMA approved the $AZN vaccine in Europe and $JNJ stated that their vaccine is 66% effective. This latter news initially underwhelmed but it is actually more positive than one would think at first look especially given the fact that it only requires a single shot.

Market Performance

All US indices were markedly down this week: in the US the Nasdaq led with a 3.5% decline, followed by the S&P500 and the Dow which both lost 3.3% of their value. The Stoxx fell 3.1% and the Italian index contained the loss to 2.3% as the political crisis sees a mildly positive optimism. The Danish OMX20 dropped 4.3%. The US Dollar gained 0.3% on the Euro. Crude oil was softer and $Gold finished 0.5% lower. $BTC-USD gained 3.3% after two consecutive weeks of sharp declines.

Earnings

Three of our stocks reported Q4 earnings this week. $MC.PA rose 1.3% on Wednesday after beating expectations with sales rising 18% year-on-year on a comparable basis.

$UMC missed on revenue despite an 8.2% yoy growth, while EPS rose to 0.16$ from 0.13$ in Q3. Their foundries are now at 99% capacity and the company guided in line. The stock sell off and underperformed relative to the Nasdaq this week: it is still up 59.4% since we initiated our position, however.

$SYF crushed earnings on Friday with Q4 EPS of 1.24$ vs consensus estimate of 0.85$ and improved from 0.52$ of Q3. Despite gaining in pre-market, the stock sell-off with the rest of the market that day which could provide an opportunity for accumulation in the near future.

Other notable earnings included $AAPL who beat expectations, and $MSFT whose cloud revenues grew 34% year on year. In the physical world, $CAT beat earnings despite a revenue fall.

Next week $DANSKE.CO will present its 2020 annual report.

Dividends

$BK went ex-dividend this week, the quarterly dividend is payable on February 12th. Most Danish companies go ex-dividend in March, while Italian stocks traditionally pay a dividend in late May and US stocks distribute quarterly dividends.

Portfolio Performance

Our portfolio fell 4.2% whereas the weighted average of the relevant market indices finished 3.1% lower.

Our Responsible Investor portfolio is now up 14.5% (15.5% including dividends) in 35 weeks. We are about 56% in stocks & ETFs and 44% in cash. On my watchlist this week I have $DVA, $CMG, $VIAV, $MSFT, $TRYG.CO and $OCDO.L.

The table below summarises the portfolio performance since inception.

Responsible Investor Portfolio Weekly Update, January 23rd, 2021 | $TCEHY $NEM $BK $SYF $CLIX $GRUB $PCG $LVMUY $LRLCY $STLA $IMPJY $TERRF $DSV.CO $DANSKE.CO $BRK $UMC $JD $ADSK $GMAB $DVA $CMG $KBH $OCDGF $AVGO $ABNB $VIAV $TRYG.CO $ADBE

The Big Picture

The 46th US President inauguration was an uplifting ceremony which made history on many levels. The next 100 days will be key to appreciate the direction this administration will take. In his first days in office Biden signed a flurry of executive orders to dismantle several policies which were set in place by his predecessor.

Meanwhile the US markets continued to rally, especially the Nasdaq, off the back of positive Q4 earnings news, vaccine optimism and the prospect of the next stimulus bill. Scratching the surface, however, one finds several counter-arguments to this “risk on” environment: paradoxically, a significant growth in earnings could undermine the monetary expansion; vaccine roll-out is being affected by various glitches in doses delivery; and the negotiations for the stimulus bill are unlikely to result in a smooth ride for the new administration.

Market Performance

All US indices were up this week: in the US the Nasdaq led with a whopping 4.2%, followed by the S&P500 (1.9%) and the Dow (0.6%). The Stoxx finished flat while the Italian index lost 1.3% as uncertainty continues to affect its political environment. The Danish OMX20 gained 1.3%. The US Dollar lost 0.2% on the Euro. Crude oil was softer while $Gold finished 0.8% higher. $BTC-USD had another horrible week and lost 9.7% after the fall of the previous week.

Earnings

$BK beat Q4 earnings but the market did not react well and the stock finished 8% lower. We are still up 13.3% since we purchased it and will take action should there be any further signs of weakness.

Other notable earnings included $NFLX who crushed estimates and exceeded 200M subscribers for the first time and lukewarm Q4 results from $INTC.

Next week two of our stocks will report earnings, $UMC and $SYF, as well as many other well know companies such as $MSFT, $AAPL and $FB.

Dividends

$BK goes ex-dividend next week. Most Danish companies go ex-dividend in March, while Italian stocks traditionally pay a dividend in late May and US stocks distribute quarterly dividends.

Portfolio Performance

Our portfolio was up 1.9% whereas the weighted average of the relevant market indices finished 0.7% higher, which means we have beaten the market this week (+1.2%).

$UMC jumped 17% this week and is now up 72% overall! $TCEHY was up 9.8% increasing the gain of the last 3 weeks to 24%. Our long e-commerce/short bricks and mortar ETF grew 6%. From this week we will start reporting $UG.PA under the new ticker $STLA.MI following the merger with FGA which resulted in the conversion of every Peugeout share into 1.742 shares of Stellantis: the European car maker had an excellent first week of trading finishing 5.3% higher.

Our Responsible Investor portfolio is now up 18.5% (19.4% including dividends) in 34 weeks. We are about 59% in stocks & ETFs and 41% in cash. On my watchlist this week I have $DVA, $CMG, $VIAV, $TRYG.CO and $OCDO.L.

The table below summarises the portfolio performance since inception.

Responsible Investor Portfolio Weekly Update, January 16th, 2021 | $TCEHY $NEM $BK $SYF $CLIX $GRUB $PCG $LVMUY $LRLCY $PEUGF $IMPJY $TERRF $DSV.CO $DANSKE.CO $BRK $UMC $JD $ADSK $GMAB $DVA $CMG $KBH $OCDGF $AVGO $COUP $LMND $TRYG.CO $ADBE

The Big Picture

Even though inauguration day is not until next Wednesday, it really feels like this past week has been the first week of office for President-elect Joe Biden: it started with the House voting in favour of impeaching Trump following the violent events from the previous week and it continued with the prospect of a 1.9 trillion USD stimulus bill announced by Biden on Thursday which was a slight disappointment though it still came within the expected range. It is noted that this is the first of two stimulus interventions with the second one currently planned for the month of February.

As the number of available vaccines multiplies the attention is shifting towards how quickly they can be roll-out to achieve herd immunity. So far expectations remain unmet in most countries with Israel and Denmark representing notable exceptions. Biden has committed to achieving 100 million vaccinations in his first 100 days in office. The general sentiment is that despite this week’s retracement the bull market remains intact: investors will need to keep watching the vaccination roll-out to be on top of an environment very sensitive to negative news. The J&J vaccine is believed to play a key role in the roll-out as it belongs to the traditional kind and only requires a single shot, an important advantage especially in developing countries.

Market Performance

All indices were down this week: in the US the Nasdaq lost 1.6%, followed by the S&P500 (-1.5%) and the Dow (-0.9%). The Stoxx finished lower (-0.7%) and so did the Italian index (-1.8%) which was affected by the looming possibility of a change of government. The Danish OMX20 erased the gains of last week and finished 1.7% lower. The US Dollar gained 1.2% on the Euro as technical analysts see increasing signs of relative strength after loosing about 10% in 2020. Crude oil and $Gold finished higher. $BTC-USD had a rollercoaster week and lost 9.6% of its value.

Earnings

A few large US banks released their earnings on Friday: while all of them beat earnings they finished lower after the announcements. $JPM stood out and $WFC underwhelmed. $KBH beat earnings on Tuesday: I like the stock and own it in another portfolio.

In corporate news, our Danish drug/biotech $GMAB received $40M milestone payment in AbbVie collaboration and shot up 5.8% this week. The stock remains grossly undervalued and poised for more growth.

Next week more bank earnings are due, including $BK which we own, as well as $NFLX, $PG and $INTC among others.

Dividends

The next dividend payments for our stocks are due in March, which is when most Danish company go ex-dividend. Most Italian stocks traditionally pay dividend in late May, while US stocks distribute quarterly dividends.

Portfolio Performance

Our portfolio down up 0.6% whereas the weighted average of the relevant market indices finished 1.4% lower, which means we have beaten the market this week (+0.8%).

It was another great week for our financial and fin-tech stocks: $SYF gained 6% and $BK added 1.7%. $TCEHY keeps pushing higher and gained 6.9%. $UMC added 3.3% and is now up 54% since we bought it. $MC.PA retraced 6%.

Our Responsible Investor portfolio is now up 16.9% (17.8% including dividends) in 33 weeks. We are about 58% in stocks & ETFs and 42% in cash. On my watchlist this week I have $DVA, $CMG, $AVGO, $LMND, $TRYG.CO and $OCDO.L.

The table below summarises the portfolio performance since inception.

Responsible Investor Portfolio Weekly Update, January 9th, 2021 | $TCEHY $NEM $BK $SYF $CLIX $GRUB $PCG $LVMUY $LRLCY $PEUGF $IMPJY $TERRF $DSV.CO $DANSKE.CO $BRK $UMC $JD $ADSK $GMAB $DVA $CMG $MA $CRWD $AVGO $COUP $LMND $TRYG.CO $ADBE

The Big Picture

The disconnect between the physical world and the stock market was particularly evident this week as Wall Street rallied during the Capitol Hill insurrection. Stimulus and money printing continues to inflate the market and boost valuations. From that point of view, the outcome of the Georgia senate race in favour of the Democrats is believed to further increase borrowing and allow the ongoing reflation trade to continue. It is however considered unlikely that the razor thin majority that the Democrats will have in Congress will allow Biden’s administration to pass radical reforms, especially on the corporate tax side.

This week was the time of the Moderna vaccine approval in the UK and in Europe. The increase of doses that the various vaccines offer is helping the market retain a positive outlook for 2021 and beyond. The growing number of cases and deaths in the US as well as in the UK does not seem to cause significant concerns for investors who experienced an “everything rally” first week of trading in 2021. Studies and expert opinions about the efficacy of the vaccines on the new strains of Covid-19 keep coming in but do not steal the scene in the news cycles.

Market Performance

All indices were up this week: in the US the Nasdaq led with a 2.4% gain, followed by the Dow (+1.8%) and the S&P500 (+1.6%). The Stoxx rallied (+3.0%) and so did the Italian index (+2.5%) despite the possibility of a change of government. The Danish OMX20 finished 1.4% higher. The US Dollar lost ground relative to the Euro reversing the trend from the previous two weeks. Crude oil joined the markets in the rally while $Gold finished lower. $BTC-USD gained more than 30% in a single week and whizzed past the 423.6% fib.

Earnings

A handful of earnings were released this week. Notable ones include $BBBY and $CAG who missed expectations, and $STZ and $MU who beat on both the top and the bottom line.

In other corporate news, $FCA.MI and $UG.PA announced that they will begin trading under the ticker of the newly formed merger company Stellantis next week.

The earning season starts next week with the first batch of bank stocks.

Dividends

Portfolio Performance

Our portfolio was up 1.7% whereas the weighted average of the relevant market indices finished 2.2% higher.

The financial stocks keep pushing higher: $SYF gained 5.4% and $DANSKE.CO jumped 8.2%; $BK added 5.6% and is now up 20% overall. Our Chinese stocks had a very good week with $TCEHY and $JD gaining 7% and 4.1%, respectively. There is an ongoing political battle between the US and China over Chinese stocks trading in the US which, while it has not affected our positions so far, needs to be watched closely.

Our Responsible Investor portfolio is now up 17.3% (18.3% including dividends) in 8 months. We are about 58% in stocks & ETFs and 42% in cash. On my watchlist this week I have $DVA, $CMG, $MA, $CRWD, $AVGO, $LMND, $TRYG.CO and $ADBE.

The table below summarises the portfolio performance since inception.

Responsible Investor Portfolio Weekly Update, January 2nd, 2021 | $TCEHY $NEM $BK $SYF $CLIX $GRUB $PCG $LVMUY $LRLCY $PEUGF $IMPJY $TERRF $DSV.CO $DANSKE.CO $BRK $UMC $JD $ADSK $GMAB $DVA $CMG $MA $CRWD $AVGO $ADBE

Happy New Year everyone !

The Big Picture

The stimulus bills had just been passed last Sunday evening and discussions about increasing the checks for the American people from the agreed 600$ to 2000$ had already started. It really seems like the hiatus between election day and the start of Joe Biden’s presidency can only be filled with headlines about relief bills. Some attention is being drawn by the Georgia senate race which polls still indicate to be very close: the Senate currently stands at 50 Republicans and 48 Democrats; if Democrats win both runoffs, the party will have control of the chamber because Vice President-elect Kamala Harris would break any ties. But if Republicans win one of the two races, they will maintain control. The market is politically agnostic and only favours the latter outcome because it is seen as one which would not lead to a corporate tax hike. The S&P500 earnings prediction for 2020 is 140$ whereas the consensus for 2021 is 170$: Biden’s economic policy may affect this figure, however.

The UK approved the Astrazeneca-Oxford vaccine this week while the EU asked for more evidence of its efficacy and will need more time to give its verdict. It is a relief to start seeing the number of vaccine shots given to citizens next to the Covid numbers we are used to reading every day. The speed with which vaccinations will occur is likely to determine the speed of recovery for the economy in 2021. While the new strains of the virus cause some concern, this week´s market gains indicate moderate optimism: the test will come next week when institutional investors and money managers return from the Christmas break.

With Brexit now a reality, the EU managed to bring another trade deal home, this time with China. This agreement is considered particularly important given the size and growth rate of the counterpart and it strategically comes before Joe Biden is sworn in, in an attempt to anticipate his moves.

Market Performance

It was another short week for the stock markets as most European indices were only open the first two weekdays, the French and the UK indices adding Wednesday and US markets alone trading also on the 31st. All indices were up this week: in the US the S&P500 led with a 1.4% gain, followed by the Dow (+1.3%) and the Nasdaq (+0.6%). The Stoxx advanced 0.5% while the Italian index gained 0.5%. The Danish OMX20 finished 1.4% higher. The US Dollar appreciated relative to the Euro for the second week in a row and both crude oil and gold finished higher.

Earnings

No notable earnings were released this week. The next quarter’s earning season will start in mid January 2021.

Dividends

The next dividend payments for our stocks are due in March, which is when most Danish company go ex-dividend.

Portfolio Performance

Our portfolio was up 1.1% whereas the weighted average of the relevant market indices finished 1.0% higher, which means we had a marginal market beat this week.

The financial stocks had another great week: $SYF gained 2.2% and became our best performer in 2020 with a total appreciation of 54.6% (excl. dividends); $BK added 3.4% and is now up 14% overall. $TCEHY recovered some of the lost ground of the previous week by gaining 3.1%: it is worth noting that this company is ranked no. 7th by market cap, globally. We have had very good weekly gains on $MC.PA and $OR.PA which added 2.9 and 2.8%, respectively.

Our Responsible Investor portfolio is now up 15.7% (16.7% including dividends) in 31 weeks. We are about 57% in stocks & ETFs and 43% in cash. On my watchlist this week I have $DVA, $CMG, $MA, $CRWD, $AVGO and $ADBE.

The table below summarises the portfolio performance since inception.

Responsible Investor Portfolio Weekly Update, December 26th, 2020 | $TCEHY $NEM $BK $SYF $CLIX $GRUB $PCG $LVMUY $LRLCY $PEUGF $IMPJY $TERRF $DSV.CO $DANSKE.CO $BRK $UMC $JD $ADSK $GMAB $DVA $CMG $COUP $CRWD $ADBE $AVGO

Happy holidays everyone !

The Big Picture

President-elect Joe Biden was certainly not attempting to sweeten the pill for the American people when he said that “darkest days in the battle against Covid are ahead” earlier this week. He also urged Americans to remain vigilant and prepare for tens of thousands more deaths from Covid-19 in the months to come, despite new vaccines. He went on to promise the distribution of 100 millions of vaccine shots in his first 100 days in office.

US President Donald Trump seems to want to go out with a bang after having rejected the long-awaited stimulus bill earlier this week, a move most were not expecting, regardless of whether his reasons were well founded or not. The pardoning of people close to his entourage and family added more controversy about his political demeanor.

A Brexit deal was finally agreed between the EU and the UK after months of excruciating negotiations, four and a half years from the referendum. Two weeks ago the parties seemed to be very distant but over the past weekend their positions became closer and led to the goal being achieved on Christmas Eve. It is too early to say which party gained the most and the real test will now be the UK’s future economic data which will ultimately tell whether or not Brexit was a good decision made by the British people.

Market Performance

It was a short week for the stock markets with European indices only open the first three days and US markets benefitting from an extra day of trading. The Nasdaq was up 0.4% whereas the S&P500 was mildly lower (-0.3%) and the Dow finished marginally up (+0.1%). The Stoxx was flat while the Italian index gained 0.7%. The Danish OMX20 finished 0.7% lower. The US Dollar recovered some ground relative to the Euro and gold finished marginally higher.

Earnings

No notable earnings were released this week. The next quarter’s earning season will start in mid January 2021.

Dividends

The next dividend payments for our stocks are due in March, which is when most Danish company go ex-dividend.

Portfolio Performance

Our portfolio declined 0.3% whereas the weighted average of the relevant market indices finished flat.

$UG.PA keeps moving higher: with this week’s 2.4% gain it is now up 53.5% overall. The financial stocks behaved well as $SYF added another 5% and $DANSKE.CO 3.7%. On the Chinese front $TCEHY fell 7.4% dragging our portfolio down.

Our Responsible Investor portfolio is now up 14.9% (15.9% including dividends) in 30 weeks. We are about 56% in stocks & ETFs and 44% in cash. On my watchlist this week I have $DVA, $CMG, $COUP, $CRWD, $AVGO and $ADBE.

The table below summarises the portfolio performance since inception.

Responsible Investor Portfolio Weekly Update, December 19th, 2020 | $TCEHY $NEM $BK $SYF $CLIX $GRUB $PCG $LVMUY $LRLCY $PEUGF $IMPJY $TERRF $DSV.CO $DANSKE.CO $BRK $UMC $JD $ADSK $GMAB $DVA $CMG $COUP $AMT $ADBE $AVGO

The Big Picture

The Covid-19 numbers keep rising in the US and while good news on the vaccine front instill confidence in the future, the near term appears very challenging. The impression is that mitigation measures are not being implemented as quickly as they should in the US, whereas lockdowns are announced every day in Europe, especially considering the upcoming holiday season is seen as a clear threat. Negotiations on the stimulus bill continue and seems to be very close to a positive resolution which might come as early as next week.

After last week’s positive vote for the $PFE vaccine, the FDA advisory board gave the green light to the $MRNA vaccine on Friday with no votes cast against it. This emergency authorization will increase the distribution of the vaccine within the US population, especially since it requires much lower storage temperatures.

The Fed met for the last time in 2021 on Wednesday meeting. The FOMC statement was quite dovish and Powell expects growth to pick up in the second half of the year. Bond buying will continue at a clip of 120B $ per month for the foreseeable future. The injection of liquidity has been massive and is believed to have propped the market considerably in recent months. The excess liquidity in particular, ie the liquidity that is not absorbed by the economy, tends to grow valuations. Nobel-prize winner and Yale professor Robert Schiller stated that valuations are not excessive earlier this month. Earnings have deflated 15% globally in 2020 but the 25% liquidity increase caused by central banks has made the markets gain 10% on average. With earnings expected to increase again in 2021 the market should go higher and valuations become more reasonable.

Market Performance

All US market indices finished higher, led by the Nasdaq, up 3.1%, followed by the S&P500 (1.3%) and the Dow (0.4%). The Stoxx was also higher (1.5%) and the Italian index partly recovered from last week’s loss ending with a 1.3% gain. The Danish OMX20 rallied 4.1% and is lined up to be the best index in developed countries this year. The US Dollar fell relative to the Euro and gold finished higher.

Earnings

$ACN traditionally reports earlier than most stocks and beat Q1 earnings on Thursday before market open and guided higher for 2021. The stock jumped 7% on that day and reached all time highs. I like the stock a lot and continue to own it in another portfolio.

$FDX also reported an earnings beat this week with 19% growth of the top line and more than double EPS yoy. Clearly the company, alongside its peers, has benefitted from a sharp increase in e-commerce and shipping demand. The stock fell sharply, however, after not providing guidance for 2021.

Dividends

The next dividend payments for our stocks are due in March, which is when most Danish company go ex-dividend.

Portfolio Performance

We beat the market this week, as our portfolio rose 2.5% versus a weighted average gain of the relevant market indices of 1.7% (+0.8% beat).

$UG.PA was up 7.1% this week and 51.1% overall. It now weighs 7% in our portfolio: I will be looking to scale down our position on pull backs as I don’t like to be too invested in a single stock. Other notable weekly jumps were observed in $ADSK (+9.1%) and $ELC.MI (+7.5%).

Our Responsible Investor portfolio is now up 15.0% (16.0% including dividends) in 29 weeks. We are about 56% in stocks & ETFs and 44% in cash. On my watchlist this week I have $DVA, $CMG, $COUP, $AMT, $AVGO and $ADBE.

The table below summarises the portfolio performance since inception.