Responsible Investor Portfolio Weekly Update, January 16th, 2021 | $TCEHY $NEM $BK $SYF $CLIX $GRUB $PCG $LVMUY $LRLCY $PEUGF $IMPJY $TERRF $DSV.CO $DANSKE.CO $BRK $UMC $JD $ADSK $GMAB $DVA $CMG $KBH $OCDGF $AVGO $COUP $LMND $TRYG.CO $ADBE

The Big Picture

Even though inauguration day is not until next Wednesday, it really feels like this past week has been the first week of office for President-elect Joe Biden: it started with the House voting in favour of impeaching Trump following the violent events from the previous week and it continued with the prospect of a 1.9 trillion USD stimulus bill announced by Biden on Thursday which was a slight disappointment though it still came within the expected range. It is noted that this is the first of two stimulus interventions with the second one currently planned for the month of February.

As the number of available vaccines multiplies the attention is shifting towards how quickly they can be roll-out to achieve herd immunity. So far expectations remain unmet in most countries with Israel and Denmark representing notable exceptions. Biden has committed to achieving 100 million vaccinations in his first 100 days in office. The general sentiment is that despite this week’s retracement the bull market remains intact: investors will need to keep watching the vaccination roll-out to be on top of an environment very sensitive to negative news. The J&J vaccine is believed to play a key role in the roll-out as it belongs to the traditional kind and only requires a single shot, an important advantage especially in developing countries.

Market Performance

All indices were down this week: in the US the Nasdaq lost 1.6%, followed by the S&P500 (-1.5%) and the Dow (-0.9%). The Stoxx finished lower (-0.7%) and so did the Italian index (-1.8%) which was affected by the looming possibility of a change of government. The Danish OMX20 erased the gains of last week and finished 1.7% lower. The US Dollar gained 1.2% on the Euro as technical analysts see increasing signs of relative strength after loosing about 10% in 2020. Crude oil and $Gold finished higher. $BTC-USD had a rollercoaster week and lost 9.6% of its value.

Earnings

A few large US banks released their earnings on Friday: while all of them beat earnings they finished lower after the announcements. $JPM stood out and $WFC underwhelmed. $KBH beat earnings on Tuesday: I like the stock and own it in another portfolio.

In corporate news, our Danish drug/biotech $GMAB received $40M milestone payment in AbbVie collaboration and shot up 5.8% this week. The stock remains grossly undervalued and poised for more growth.

Next week more bank earnings are due, including $BK which we own, as well as $NFLX, $PG and $INTC among others.

Dividends

The next dividend payments for our stocks are due in March, which is when most Danish company go ex-dividend. Most Italian stocks traditionally pay dividend in late May, while US stocks distribute quarterly dividends.

Portfolio Performance

Our portfolio down up 0.6% whereas the weighted average of the relevant market indices finished 1.4% lower, which means we have beaten the market this week (+0.8%).

It was another great week for our financial and fin-tech stocks: $SYF gained 6% and $BK added 1.7%. $TCEHY keeps pushing higher and gained 6.9%. $UMC added 3.3% and is now up 54% since we bought it. $MC.PA retraced 6%.

Our Responsible Investor portfolio is now up 16.9% (17.8% including dividends) in 33 weeks. We are about 58% in stocks & ETFs and 42% in cash. On my watchlist this week I have $DVA, $CMG, $AVGO, $LMND, $TRYG.CO and $OCDO.L.

The table below summarises the portfolio performance since inception.

If you don’t want to miss my alerts, please subscribe to Responsible Investor or follow me on Twitter. I also run an eToro portfolio which currently has 35+ positions and can be accessed via this link.

Responsible Investor Portfolio Weekly Update, January 9th, 2021 | $TCEHY $NEM $BK $SYF $CLIX $GRUB $PCG $LVMUY $LRLCY $PEUGF $IMPJY $TERRF $DSV.CO $DANSKE.CO $BRK $UMC $JD $ADSK $GMAB $DVA $CMG $MA $CRWD $AVGO $COUP $LMND $TRYG.CO $ADBE

The Big Picture

The disconnect between the physical world and the stock market was particularly evident this week as Wall Street rallied during the Capitol Hill insurrection. Stimulus and money printing continues to inflate the market and boost valuations. From that point of view, the outcome of the Georgia senate race in favour of the Democrats is believed to further increase borrowing and allow the ongoing reflation trade to continue. It is however considered unlikely that the razor thin majority that the Democrats will have in Congress will allow Biden’s administration to pass radical reforms, especially on the corporate tax side.

This week was the time of the Moderna vaccine approval in the UK and in Europe. The increase of doses that the various vaccines offer is helping the market retain a positive outlook for 2021 and beyond. The growing number of cases and deaths in the US as well as in the UK does not seem to cause significant concerns for investors who experienced an “everything rally” first week of trading in 2021. Studies and expert opinions about the efficacy of the vaccines on the new strains of Covid-19 keep coming in but do not steal the scene in the news cycles.

Market Performance

All indices were up this week: in the US the Nasdaq led with a 2.4% gain, followed by the Dow (+1.8%) and the S&P500 (+1.6%). The Stoxx rallied (+3.0%) and so did the Italian index (+2.5%) despite the possibility of a change of government. The Danish OMX20 finished 1.4% higher. The US Dollar lost ground relative to the Euro reversing the trend from the previous two weeks. Crude oil joined the markets in the rally while $Gold finished lower. $BTC-USD gained more than 30% in a single week and whizzed past the 423.6% fib.

Earnings

A handful of earnings were released this week. Notable ones include $BBBY and $CAG who missed expectations, and $STZ and $MU who beat on both the top and the bottom line.

In other corporate news, $FCA.MI and $UG.PA announced that they will begin trading under the ticker of the newly formed merger company Stellantis next week.

The earning season starts next week with the first batch of bank stocks.

Dividends

The next dividend payments for our stocks are due in March, which is when most Danish company go ex-dividend. Most Italian stocks traditionally pay dividend in late May, while US stocks distribute quarterly dividends.

Portfolio Performance

Our portfolio was up 1.7% whereas the weighted average of the relevant market indices finished 2.2% higher.

The financial stocks keep pushing higher: $SYF gained 5.4% and $DANSKE.CO jumped 8.2%; $BK added 5.6% and is now up 20% overall. Our Chinese stocks had a very good week with $TCEHY and $JD gaining 7% and 4.1%, respectively. There is an ongoing political battle between the US and China over Chinese stocks trading in the US which, while it has not affected our positions so far, needs to be watched closely.

Our Responsible Investor portfolio is now up 17.3% (18.3% including dividends) in 8 months. We are about 58% in stocks & ETFs and 42% in cash. On my watchlist this week I have $DVA, $CMG, $MA, $CRWD, $AVGO, $LMND, $TRYG.CO and $ADBE.

The table below summarises the portfolio performance since inception.

If you don’t want to miss my alerts, please subscribe to Responsible Investor or follow me on Twitter. I also run an eToro portfolio which currently has 35+ positions and can be accessed via this link.

Responsible Investor Portfolio Weekly Update, January 2nd, 2021 | $TCEHY $NEM $BK $SYF $CLIX $GRUB $PCG $LVMUY $LRLCY $PEUGF $IMPJY $TERRF $DSV.CO $DANSKE.CO $BRK $UMC $JD $ADSK $GMAB $DVA $CMG $MA $CRWD $AVGO $ADBE

Happy New Year everyone !

The Big Picture

The stimulus bills had just been passed last Sunday evening and discussions about increasing the checks for the American people from the agreed 600$ to 2000$ had already started. It really seems like the hiatus between election day and the start of Joe Biden’s presidency can only be filled with headlines about relief bills. Some attention is being drawn by the Georgia senate race which polls still indicate to be very close: the Senate currently stands at 50 Republicans and 48 Democrats; if Democrats win both runoffs, the party will have control of the chamber because Vice President-elect Kamala Harris would break any ties. But if Republicans win one of the two races, they will maintain control. The market is politically agnostic and only favours the latter outcome because it is seen as one which would not lead to a corporate tax hike. The S&P500 earnings prediction for 2020 is 140$ whereas the consensus for 2021 is 170$: Biden’s economic policy may affect this figure, however.

The UK approved the Astrazeneca-Oxford vaccine this week while the EU asked for more evidence of its efficacy and will need more time to give its verdict. It is a relief to start seeing the number of vaccine shots given to citizens next to the Covid numbers we are used to reading every day. The speed with which vaccinations will occur is likely to determine the speed of recovery for the economy in 2021. While the new strains of the virus cause some concern, this week´s market gains indicate moderate optimism: the test will come next week when institutional investors and money managers return from the Christmas break.

With Brexit now a reality, the EU managed to bring another trade deal home, this time with China. This agreement is considered particularly important given the size and growth rate of the counterpart and it strategically comes before Joe Biden is sworn in, in an attempt to anticipate his moves.

Market Performance

It was another short week for the stock markets as most European indices were only open the first two weekdays, the French and the UK indices adding Wednesday and US markets alone trading also on the 31st. All indices were up this week: in the US the S&P500 led with a 1.4% gain, followed by the Dow (+1.3%) and the Nasdaq (+0.6%). The Stoxx advanced 0.5% while the Italian index gained 0.5%. The Danish OMX20 finished 1.4% higher. The US Dollar appreciated relative to the Euro for the second week in a row and both crude oil and gold finished higher.

Earnings

No notable earnings were released this week. The next quarter’s earning season will start in mid January 2021.

Dividends

The next dividend payments for our stocks are due in March, which is when most Danish company go ex-dividend.

Portfolio Performance

Our portfolio was up 1.1% whereas the weighted average of the relevant market indices finished 1.0% higher, which means we had a marginal market beat this week.

The financial stocks had another great week: $SYF gained 2.2% and became our best performer in 2020 with a total appreciation of 54.6% (excl. dividends); $BK added 3.4% and is now up 14% overall. $TCEHY recovered some of the lost ground of the previous week by gaining 3.1%: it is worth noting that this company is ranked no. 7th by market cap, globally. We have had very good weekly gains on $MC.PA and $OR.PA which added 2.9 and 2.8%, respectively.

Our Responsible Investor portfolio is now up 15.7% (16.7% including dividends) in 31 weeks. We are about 57% in stocks & ETFs and 43% in cash. On my watchlist this week I have $DVA, $CMG, $MA, $CRWD, $AVGO and $ADBE.

The table below summarises the portfolio performance since inception.

If you don’t want to miss my alerts, please subscribe to Responsible Investor or follow me on Twitter. I also run an eToro portfolio which currently has 35+ positions and can be accessed via this link.

Responsible Investor Portfolio Weekly Update, December 26th, 2020 | $TCEHY $NEM $BK $SYF $CLIX $GRUB $PCG $LVMUY $LRLCY $PEUGF $IMPJY $TERRF $DSV.CO $DANSKE.CO $BRK $UMC $JD $ADSK $GMAB $DVA $CMG $COUP $CRWD $ADBE $AVGO

Happy holidays everyone !

The Big Picture

President-elect Joe Biden was certainly not attempting to sweeten the pill for the American people when he said that “darkest days in the battle against Covid are ahead” earlier this week. He also urged Americans to remain vigilant and prepare for tens of thousands more deaths from Covid-19 in the months to come, despite new vaccines. He went on to promise the distribution of 100 millions of vaccine shots in his first 100 days in office.

US President Donald Trump seems to want to go out with a bang after having rejected the long-awaited stimulus bill earlier this week, a move most were not expecting, regardless of whether his reasons were well founded or not. The pardoning of people close to his entourage and family added more controversy about his political demeanor.

A Brexit deal was finally agreed between the EU and the UK after months of excruciating negotiations, four and a half years from the referendum. Two weeks ago the parties seemed to be very distant but over the past weekend their positions became closer and led to the goal being achieved on Christmas Eve. It is too early to say which party gained the most and the real test will now be the UK’s future economic data which will ultimately tell whether or not Brexit was a good decision made by the British people.

Market Performance

It was a short week for the stock markets with European indices only open the first three days and US markets benefitting from an extra day of trading. The Nasdaq was up 0.4% whereas the S&P500 was mildly lower (-0.3%) and the Dow finished marginally up (+0.1%). The Stoxx was flat while the Italian index gained 0.7%. The Danish OMX20 finished 0.7% lower. The US Dollar recovered some ground relative to the Euro and gold finished marginally higher.

Earnings

No notable earnings were released this week. The next quarter’s earning season will start in mid January 2021.

Dividends

The next dividend payments for our stocks are due in March, which is when most Danish company go ex-dividend.

Portfolio Performance

Our portfolio declined 0.3% whereas the weighted average of the relevant market indices finished flat.

$UG.PA keeps moving higher: with this week’s 2.4% gain it is now up 53.5% overall. The financial stocks behaved well as $SYF added another 5% and $DANSKE.CO 3.7%. On the Chinese front $TCEHY fell 7.4% dragging our portfolio down.

Our Responsible Investor portfolio is now up 14.9% (15.9% including dividends) in 30 weeks. We are about 56% in stocks & ETFs and 44% in cash. On my watchlist this week I have $DVA, $CMG, $COUP, $CRWD, $AVGO and $ADBE.

The table below summarises the portfolio performance since inception.

If you don’t want to miss my alerts, please subscribe to Responsible Investor or follow me on Twitter. I also run an eToro portfolio which currently has 35+ positions and can be accessed via this link.

Responsible Investor Portfolio Weekly Update, December 19th, 2020 | $TCEHY $NEM $BK $SYF $CLIX $GRUB $PCG $LVMUY $LRLCY $PEUGF $IMPJY $TERRF $DSV.CO $DANSKE.CO $BRK $UMC $JD $ADSK $GMAB $DVA $CMG $COUP $AMT $ADBE $AVGO

The Big Picture

The Covid-19 numbers keep rising in the US and while good news on the vaccine front instill confidence in the future, the near term appears very challenging. The impression is that mitigation measures are not being implemented as quickly as they should in the US, whereas lockdowns are announced every day in Europe, especially considering the upcoming holiday season is seen as a clear threat. Negotiations on the stimulus bill continue and seems to be very close to a positive resolution which might come as early as next week.

After last week’s positive vote for the $PFE vaccine, the FDA advisory board gave the green light to the $MRNA vaccine on Friday with no votes cast against it. This emergency authorization will increase the distribution of the vaccine within the US population, especially since it requires much lower storage temperatures.

The Fed met for the last time in 2021 on Wednesday meeting. The FOMC statement was quite dovish and Powell expects growth to pick up in the second half of the year. Bond buying will continue at a clip of 120B $ per month for the foreseeable future. The injection of liquidity has been massive and is believed to have propped the market considerably in recent months. The excess liquidity in particular, ie the liquidity that is not absorbed by the economy, tends to grow valuations. Nobel-prize winner and Yale professor Robert Schiller stated that valuations are not excessive earlier this month. Earnings have deflated 15% globally in 2020 but the 25% liquidity increase caused by central banks has made the markets gain 10% on average. With earnings expected to increase again in 2021 the market should go higher and valuations become more reasonable.

Market Performance

All US market indices finished higher, led by the Nasdaq, up 3.1%, followed by the S&P500 (1.3%) and the Dow (0.4%). The Stoxx was also higher (1.5%) and the Italian index partly recovered from last week’s loss ending with a 1.3% gain. The Danish OMX20 rallied 4.1% and is lined up to be the best index in developed countries this year. The US Dollar fell relative to the Euro and gold finished higher.

Earnings

$ACN traditionally reports earlier than most stocks and beat Q1 earnings on Thursday before market open and guided higher for 2021. The stock jumped 7% on that day and reached all time highs. I like the stock a lot and continue to own it in another portfolio.

$FDX also reported an earnings beat this week with 19% growth of the top line and more than double EPS yoy. Clearly the company, alongside its peers, has benefitted from a sharp increase in e-commerce and shipping demand. The stock fell sharply, however, after not providing guidance for 2021.

Dividends

The next dividend payments for our stocks are due in March, which is when most Danish company go ex-dividend.

Portfolio Performance

We beat the market this week, as our portfolio rose 2.5% versus a weighted average gain of the relevant market indices of 1.7% (+0.8% beat).

$UG.PA was up 7.1% this week and 51.1% overall. It now weighs 7% in our portfolio: I will be looking to scale down our position on pull backs as I don’t like to be too invested in a single stock. Other notable weekly jumps were observed in $ADSK (+9.1%) and $ELC.MI (+7.5%).

Our Responsible Investor portfolio is now up 15.0% (16.0% including dividends) in 29 weeks. We are about 56% in stocks & ETFs and 44% in cash. On my watchlist this week I have $DVA, $CMG, $COUP, $AMT, $AVGO and $ADBE.

The table below summarises the portfolio performance since inception.

If you don’t want to miss my alerts, please subscribe to Responsible Investor or follow me on Twitter. I also run an eToro portfolio which currently has 35+ positions and can be accessed via this link.

Responsible Investor Portfolio Weekly Update, December 12th, 2020 | $TCEHY $NEM $BK $SYF $CLIX $GRUB $PCG $LVMUY $LRLCY $PEUGF $IMPJY $TERRF $DSV.CO $DANSKE.CO $BRK $UMC $JD $ADSK $GMAB $DVA $ROKU $LMND $AMWL $AMT $ADBE $LULU $AVGO

The Big Picture

The pandemic continues to worsen in the US both in terms of daily cases and deaths. Reports now anticipate the peak to occur in January. Additional restrictions have been imposed this week, including the banning of indoor dining in New York and travel restrictions in the state of California. Despite these mitigation measures, the Christmas season is only expected to exacerbate the situation as people gather in any way they can. It surely feels like now would be a good time to pass that stimulus package, however speaker Pelosi is now anticipating the talks to continue over Christmas lengthening the time since they were initiated over summer.

On the data front, this weeks reports were mixed with the jobless claims surpassing 850k which corresponds to the largest week on week increase in the last 3 months. On the flipside, the Michigan University consumer sentiment index for December rose to 81.4 from 76.9 in the prior month.

The FDA advisory board voted in favour of the $PFE vaccine which has started being deployed in the UK. Next Thursday will be the time of the $MRNA vaccine. It seems that the market has already factored in the positive outcome of these emergency authorizations such that any delay to their approval could have an adverse, short-term impact.

Market Performance

The US market indices fell this week, led by the S&P500, down 1.0%, followed by the Nasdaq (-0.7%) and the Dow (-0.6%). The IPO bonanza is seen as one of the factors which caused the sell-off as fund managers rebalanced their portfolios to embellish them with popular names such as $ABNB and $DASH. The Stoxx was also lower (-1.0%) and the Italian index experienced a sharp decline (-2.2%) due political uncertainty. The Danish OMX20 finished 2.0% higher after two consecutive weeks of decline. The US Dollar was mostly unchanged relative to the Euro and gold finished flat.

Earnings

$ADBE beat earnings on Thursday after the market close and upped the 2021 guidance. While the company has seen its growth rate reducing to below 20% per year, it is still in the late teens. $LULU posted a surprised profit in Q3 and grew revenue by 21% yoy. I like them both but feel our exposure to the technology and the consumer discretionary sectors is well balanced in our portfolio at the moment.

In other corporate news, $DIS upped their projected subscriptions at the Investor Day by a factor or three which led the stock to a +15% finish for the week. $AAPL announced they are developing their own cellular modem which sent $QCOM sharply down.

Dividends

This week $NEM went ex-dividend and paid their quarterly dividend. We have one more stock of our portfolio going ex-dividend in December.

Portfolio Performance

We closed our remaining position on $GRUB this week after having halved it back in the middle of October. Overall, the investment yielded a whopping 35% profit.

Our Responsible Investor portfolio is now up 12.3% (13.2% including dividends) in 28 weeks. We are about 55% in stocks & ETFs and 45% in cash. On my watchlist this week I have $DVA, $AMWL, $LMND, $AMT, $AVGO and $ADBE.

The table below summarises the portfolio performance since inception.

If you don’t want to miss my alerts, please subscribe to Responsible Investor or follow me on Twitter. I also run an eToro portfolio which currently has 35+ positions and can be accessed via this link.

Responsible Investor Portfolio Weekly Update, December 5th, 2020 | $TCEHY $NEM $BK $SYF $CLIX $GRUB $PCG $LVMUY $LRLCY $PEUGF $IMPJY $TERRF $DSV.CO $DANSKE.CO $BRK $UMC $JD $ADSK $GMAB $DVA $ROKU $LMND $AMWL $AMT

The Big Picture

The US jobs report disappointed as only 245k jobs were added in November compared to more than 600k in October. This may well be a sign of the economic recovery slowing down which isn’t all surprising given the worsening situation of the pandemic in the US with Joe Biden intending to require citizens to wear masks for 100 days. Meanwhile the US Congress seems closer to agreeing on a stimulus package after weeks of deadlock as the democrats lower their ask to just below one trillion USD. On the vaccine front the FDA advisory board will meet on December 10th to discuss the approval of the $PFE vaccine and 7 days later for the $MRNA vaccine.

Market Performance

The US market indices were all up this week, led by the Nasdaq which gained 2.1%, followed by the S&P500 (+1.7%) and the Dow (+1.0%). After reaching 30,000 last week, the Dow finished at all times highs again this week. Europe was mixed: the Stoxx was only marginally higher (+0.3%) whereas the Italian index finished 0.8% lower and the OMX20 fell considerably (-2.2%). The US Dollar was weaker, though, and depreciated 1.29% versus the Euro. This weakness sent gold futures higher by 2.9% this week.

Earnings

Some of the stocks we are watching released Q3 earnings this week as the earnings season draws to a close. $DOCU for example beat earnings expectations on both the top and the bottom line: I really like this stock but it is difficult to keep up such a growth rate. On the cybersecurity sector $CRWD also beat earnings and added about 1,200 new customer subscriptions. Ollie’s Bargain Outlet (ticker: $OLLI) beat earnings but it is likely to feel the pressure in Q4 due to mounting concerns about C-19 numbers in the US.

None of our stocks reported earnings this week.

Dividends

This week $MC.PA went ex-dividend and paid a 0.92% dividend. The stock finished lower this week but is now up 28% since inception. Two more stocks of our portfolio go ex-dividend in December.

Portfolio Performance

Our semiconductor stock $UMC is on a tear: with this week’s 27% gain our position is up 55% in just 6 weeks. We haven’t seen any significant news to justify this action and it may just be the market catching up on its compelling valuation: at Friday’s close price, the stock now has a PEG ratio of about 1 which makes it fairly valued.

Our Responsible Investor portfolio is now up 14.9% (15.9% including dividends) in 27 weeks. We are about 56% in stocks & ETFs and 44% in cash. I am always on the lookout for possible new buys and am keen to enter the insurance as well as the telemedicine sectors in the not too distant future. On my watchlist this week I have $DVA, $AMWL, $LMND and $AMT.

The table below summarises the portfolio performance since inception.

If you don’t want to miss my alerts, please subscribe to Responsible Investor or follow me on Twitter. I also run an eToro portfolio which currently has 35+ positions and can be accessed via this link.