Palantir shares surged after earnings, reflecting strong confidence in its AI-driven business model. Despite the sharp move higher, technical indicators show the stock is not overbought and continues to hold key support levels, underscoring underlying strength. The recent pullback before earnings was tied to broader weakness in software stocks as investors reassessed valuations amid AI disruption. While many traditional software firms face pressure, Palantir stands apart as a pure AI software provider, even though its premium valuation previously weighed on performance.
Earnings decisively beat expectations, with management guiding to sharply higher revenue for both the coming quarter and the full fiscal year. Growth accelerated to a record pace, reinforcing the narrative that AI adoption is translating into real revenues rather than just hype. However, much of the post-earnings surge appears driven by momentum buying, increasing short-term risk.
Beyond software, AI demand is rippling through hardware and automation. Teradyne delivered blowout results, highlighting strength in semiconductor testing and robotics tied to AI expansion. Macro data also surprised positively, as U.S. manufacturing returned to expansion, triggering broad equity buying amplified by market structure dynamics and early-month inflows.
Internationally, easing trade tensions boosted Indian equities, with tariff reductions expected to support exports and long-term growth prospects. Markets are balancing powerful AI revenue momentum against valuation discipline, with leadership evident in names like $PLTR, $IGV, $TER, $EPI, and $SPY.
Silver futures collapsed by roughly 41% in less than three days, exposing how fragile speculative positioning had become. The plunge followed coordinated increases in margin requirements across global exchanges, triggering forced liquidations as heavily leveraged momentum traders failed to meet new thresholds. Similar pressure has hit gold, where sharp declines have flushed out late-stage buyers even as volatility remains extreme. Despite the drawdowns, momentum-focused influencers are again urging aggressive buying, driving early-session inflows into precious metal ETFs.
The stress is not limited to metals. Bitcoin broke below key psychological levels near $80,000 and briefly traded under $75,000, largely due to margin calls and forced selling. This digital-asset weakness is spilling over into popular high-beta technology stocks, as investors sell liquid positions to cover losses elsewhere. With market makers now positioned in negative gamma, price moves risk reinforcing themselves: rallies can force buying, while declines can accelerate selling. This creates unstable structures across metals, crypto, and equities, sharply increasing risk for both dip buyers and short sellers.
On the corporate front, Oracle’s heavy commitment to AI infrastructure has shifted its profile toward higher risk, as the company plans a sizable debt and equity offering to fund expansion. Investors are closely watching upcoming ISM manufacturing data and geopolitical headlines affecting energy markets. Key assets in focus include $GLD, $SLV, $MSTR, $ORCL, and $SPY.
Gold experienced extraordinary volatility, with a massive $5.5 trillion swing highlighting how fragile positioning has become. Early in the session, retail momentum traders piled aggressively into gold and silver vehicles, exhausting buying power just before a sharp drop. Once selling pressure peaked, dip buyers stepped in, reinforcing how crowded and reactive the trade has become. Silver was even more extreme, trading through a staggering 24.5% intraday range, underscoring the speculative intensity across precious metals.
Market dynamics shifted further as speculation emerged that President Trump would nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair. Selling pressure in gold accelerated on the rumor and continued after the nomination was confirmed. The reaction reflects uncertainty around future monetary policy rather than a simple hawkish or dovish interpretation. While Warsh is viewed historically as hawkish, his credibility may give him greater influence within the FOMC, where policy outcomes depend on consensus rather than the chair alone.
Inflation data added to the tension. Producer prices surprised to the upside, with both headline and core readings coming in hotter than expected, reinforcing concerns that inflation pressures remain sticky. Taken together, volatile commodities, shifting Fed expectations, and firm inflation data suggest markets remain highly sensitive to policy signals. Investors are closely watching $GLD, $SLV, $GDX, $SPY, and $TLT as these crosscurrents continue to drive sharp moves.
Gold surged in a violent short squeeze after the Federal Reserve left rates unchanged and Chair Powell delivered a hawkish press conference. Markets had been positioned for a pullback, but heavy short interest amplified upside momentum when prices moved against expectations. Elevated positioning made gold vulnerable to rapid covering, turning an anticipated bearish outcome into a rally.
Geopolitical risk added fuel. President Trump warned Iran that time is running out to reach a deal as U.S. forces massed in the Middle East, while Iran signaled potential retaliation. Energy markets reacted, with Brent crude climbing sharply from recent lows, reflecting concerns around supply routes and the Strait of Hormuz. Speculative activity has also intensified in base metals, supporting copper-related assets.
In equities, earnings drove sharp divergences. Meta shares jumped as results showed artificial intelligence is translating into advertising profits. Microsoft posted solid numbers, but shares slipped as investors fixated on marginally slower cloud growth. Tesla reported its first revenue decline, yet the stock narrative remains centered on robotaxis and humanoid robotics rather than autos.
Macro data were mixed, with jobless claims slightly above expectations, while attention now turns to the upcoming Producer Price Index release. Volatility across commodities and equities highlights how positioning and sentiment can overwhelm fundamentals in the short term. Key names to watch include $META, $MSFT, $TSLA, $FCX, and $CPER.
U.S. equities are being driven by an accelerating memory and storage supercycle tied to AI infrastructure buildouts. Micron shares have gone parabolic as demand for high-bandwidth memory surges, with the stock gapping higher following strong earnings and bullish commentary from Seagate. Management signals suggest the AI-driven upgrade cycle in storage and memory still has room to run, keeping investor enthusiasm elevated. Upcoming earnings from Western Digital are expected to further clarify how durable this demand may be across the sector.
While momentum remains powerful, technical indicators show parts of the memory trade are deeply overbought, raising the risk of sharp pullbacks if expectations are not met. At the same time, the possibility of short covering continues to add fuel to upside volatility.
Globally, South Korean equities continue to outperform, led by heavyweight memory manufacturers. Diplomatic talks in Washington around trade policy are being closely watched, as any easing of tariff threats could extend the rally in Korean stocks and reinforce the global AI supply chain narrative.
Elsewhere in semiconductors, Texas Instruments surprised markets by projecting sequential revenue growth for the first time in years, supported by data center demand. Macro forces also played a role, with a sharp dollar decline boosting risk assets broadly. Investors are now focused on the Federal Reserve’s policy decision later today.
Key stocks and ETFs to watch include $MU, $STX, $WDC, $TXN, and $EWY.
Silver has entered a period of extreme volatility, marked by a rapid surge followed by sharp reversals. Prices accelerated from the high 90s to above 117 in a very short span as clustered stop losses from short sellers were triggered. Once those stops were cleared, aggressive options buying intensified the move, forcing dealers to hedge by buying silver-related instruments. This dynamic fueled a classic gamma squeeze. After peaking, silver quickly retreated toward the low 100s as the squeeze ran out of momentum, inviting short sellers back into the market. Renewed pressure has since led to another round of squeezes, keeping volatility elevated.
Speculation and unverified rumors are amplifying the frenzy, drawing momentum-driven traders into precious metals and mining assets, while more disciplined investors remain cautious. Outside commodities, equity markets showed resilience. Despite fresh tariff threats toward South Korea, investors dismissed the rhetoric and pushed Korean stocks to new highs, driven by enthusiasm around AI-related demand for semiconductor memory. This optimism spilled into U.S.-listed memory and storage names ahead of key earnings reports.
In the U.S., weakness in the Dow was largely attributable to a sharp decline in a major health insurer following disappointing earnings and regulatory pressure on Medicare Advantage pricing. Upcoming consumer confidence data could further influence market direction. Key names in focus include $SLV, $GLD, $MU, $WDC, and $UNH.
Gold has surged decisively above its magnet, signaling strong momentum but also flashing warning signs. Prices are now far above the 200-day moving average, and RSI readings show gold is overbought and vulnerable to a pullback. Silver is also racing higher, driven by an aggressive short squeeze. Retail momentum traders are piling into precious metals and mining assets, while more cautious investors are staying on the sidelines.
The immediate catalyst for the move in metals is a sharp surge in the Japanese yen. Japanese and U.S. officials signaled readiness to intervene against currency speculation, prompting yen strength and a decline in Japanese equities, with the Nikkei falling sharply. Lower Japanese bond yields provided some offset, but the yen’s move is weighing on U.S. stocks, particularly technology shares, due to the unwinding risk in yen-funded carry trades. The overall impact remains nuanced, as some global funds are hedged against currency swings while others are not.
Geopolitically, renewed tariff threats toward Canada briefly pressured equities before easing as Canada stepped back from a potential China trade deal. Attention now turns to the upcoming Fed decision and a heavy earnings calendar, led by major technology companies and AI-linked demand trends. Durable goods data surprised to the upside, offering a supportive macro backdrop. Key tickers to watch include $GLD, $SLV, $AAPL, $TSLA, and $NVDA.
Silver is seeing a powerful surge, with prices approaching the psychologically important $100 magnet. Gold is also climbing and is now close to its own major magnet near $5,000, reinforcing the broader move into precious metals. The sharp rally in silver is being driven by two forces: a wave of capital rotating out of stalled cryptocurrencies and an aggressive short squeeze. This shift highlights how momentum-driven investors often migrate to whatever asset is moving fastest, amplifying short-term price action.
U.S. equities have stalled in early trading following a hawkish tone from the Bank of Japan. While rates were left unchanged, higher inflation projections and a stronger yen are creating anxiety around the yen carry trade, which has historically had an outsized impact on U.S. markets. With Japan heading toward a snap election in early February, currency volatility remains a key risk factor.
Speculation is also building around a potential SpaceX IPO, which could become one of the largest listings ever and reshape sentiment across growth and innovation stocks. In semiconductors, memory-related names continue to rise on pricing rumors despite official denials, showing how sensitive the sector remains to supply narratives.
Meanwhile, Intel shares are under pressure after lowered guidance tied to capacity constraints, while broader market focus now turns to the upcoming Fed meeting and fresh consumer sentiment data.
Key tickers to watch include $SI_F, $GLD, $TSLA, $MU, and $INTC.
U.S. stocks are consolidating just below a key technical magnet, suggesting underlying strength despite the lack of a breakout. Importantly, momentum indicators show the market is not overbought, increasing the odds of a push higher if supportive catalysts emerge. However, the latest December jobs report has complicated the Federal Reserve’s path. Payroll growth came in slightly below expectations, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.4%, a level that makes an immediate rate cut more difficult even as markets continue to price one in.
Outside of macro data, major corporate and policy developments are shaping sector leadership. Meta announced an aggressive, long-term commitment to nuclear power, signing multi-decade energy agreements and supporting new reactor development. This highlights how AI-driven power demand is increasingly influencing capital allocation and energy strategy.
Housing is another focal point. President Trump directed government-sponsored enterprises to purchase large amounts of mortgage bonds to stimulate home buying. While housing starts disappointed, stronger building permits suggest builders remain optimistic, supported by the prospect of lower mortgage rates.
Geopolitically, oil markets remain sensitive to U.S. policy in Venezuela, while tensions in Asia are rising as China restricts rare earth exports to Japan. These crosscurrents underscore why markets remain resilient but cautious near current levels.
Responsible Investor is a weekly newsletter and an Apple/Spotify podcast for those who are interested in investing responsibly. Go to responsibleinvestor.dk for more information and to read our disclaimer. This week’s newsletter is titled “Was this week’s rally justified?”, and was written on November 11th, 2023.
Weekly summary in a paragraph
The US stock market indices were mostly higher this week, despite somewhat hawkish commentary from chair Powell and a weak US bond auction. Small caps lagged and which finished significantly lower. The European stock market managed to stay afloat despite more companies missing earnings estimates and warning about lower full-year profits. The 2-10y spread continues to widen this week after the trend reversal experienced in late October and is still inverted at -41 basis points. There was nothing incremental in terms economic data. In corporate news, Disney and Gilead Sciences published strong earnings reports while The Trade Desk disappointed. Next week more Q3 earnings will come in, as companies such as Home Depot, Target, Palo Alto Networks, Applied Materials and The Gap report.
Asset classes weekly performance
This week the Dow finished +0.7% higher (+3.4% year to date) while the S&P500 gained +1.3% (+15.0% year to date), the Nasdaq rose +2.4% (+31.8% year to date) and the Russell 2000 gave up -3.2% (-3.2% year to date). Gold slid -2.2% (+0.9% year to date) while Silver tanked -4.0% (-11.2% year to date). Crude Oil dropped -4.3% (+3.2% year to date). The 10-y US treasury yield lost -0.7% (+22.0% year to date). The European stock market gained +0.9% (+11.6% year to date). The Euro lost -0.43% against the US Dollar (-0.22% year to date).
Weekly pitch
It was not a very convincing week as the markets rallied with no significant news to justify the move. In fact, hawkish statements by Powell and a poor auction would have suggested a drop from last week’s levels. From a technical perspective, the Dow is very close to a death cross and if the S&P500 and the Nasdaq are not able to keep up the recent momentum, they too will be in a similar position. Next week the all-important CPI and PPI reports will be published: these have the potential to be market movers and are closely watched by the Fed who, together with labour market report, use this data to define their monetary policy. Responsible Investors should exercise caution and maintain a healthy proportion of their portfolio in cash and hedges as well as a diversified portfolio with some exposure to the European stock marketand to emerging markets.
Weekly Portfolio Update
Here are this week’s movements: stop losses were triggered on our Denbury Resources long position and on our XPO Logistics short position.Cash, US treasury bills, precious metals and hedges amount to 37% in our portfolio (increased compared to last week).
Top 5 Weekly Portfolio Performers
ProShares UltraPro Short Russell 2000 +9.6% (3 times inverse the Russell 2000 ETF)