U.S. stocks remain buoyant, while SpaceX has added to speculative optimism following a sharp short squeeze around its lock-up expiration. $SPCX $SPY $GOOG $AMZN $NVDA

However, investors should question the headline earnings narrative supporting the market breakout. S&P 500 second-quarter earnings growth is being reported at roughly 50%, versus approximately 23% expected before earnings season. Yet this figure is heavily distorted by extraordinary investment gains at Alphabet and Amazon, including roughly $98 billion and $53 billion respectively. These gains are largely non-recurring and do not reflect underlying operating performance.

Excluding those distortions, S&P 500 earnings growth falls to approximately 31–32%—still exceptionally strong. Semiconductor and semiconductor-equipment companies are growing earnings by roughly 135%, making the sector the dominant contributor to overall growth. Removing both the investment gains and semiconductor surge leaves underlying S&P 500 earnings growth around 22–23%, much closer to expectations.

The key question is whether the semiconductor boom represents a sustainable supercycle or eventually fades. Meanwhile, Wednesday’s CPI release could significantly influence markets and interest-rate expectations.

Geopolitical developments remain another risk. President Trump is shifting toward economic pressure rather than military escalation against Iran, while oil prices are rising as markets interpret this as evidence of Iranian leverage. A sustained oil rally could eventually undermine the current bullish equity environment.

U.S. equities moved higher after a surprisingly weak July jobs report reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates on hold. The S&P 500 remains above key technical support following its recent breakout, with early gains also supported by easing geopolitical concerns and improving sentiment in South Korea. $SPY (State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF) $MU (Micron Technology, Inc.) $SKHY (SK hynix Inc ADR) $SNDK (Sandisk Corp/DE) $GLD (SPDR Gold)

Nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000 versus expectations for an 86,000 increase, while private payroll growth and hourly wage gains also came in below forecasts. Despite the disappointing employment data, markets welcomed the report, viewing weaker labor conditions as reducing the likelihood of further Fed tightening.

Geopolitical optimism added to the positive tone as both the U.S. and Iran signaled progress toward ending hostilities. However, proposed arrangements for navigation through the Strait of Hormuz could leave Iran with greater long-term influence over the waterway, a development that may carry future economic and market risks even if a near-term agreement boosts sentiment.

Stabilization in South Korea also supported semiconductor shares, particularly memory-related names, after recent volatility. Meanwhile, SpaceX defied widespread expectations of a post-lockup selloff by rallying strongly, highlighting the dangers of consensus positioning.

Safe-haven demand remained firm despite the equity rally, with Chinese investors increasing purchases of gold and silver ETFs following the weak U.S. jobs data, helping lift precious metals from technical support levels.

U.S. stocks continue to climb, with the S&P 500 reaching fresh highs after rebounding sharply from recent support. The rally has been fueled by a powerful short squeeze, solid corporate earnings and optimism surrounding Iran negotiations. However, technical indicators now suggest the market is overbought, making it increasingly vulnerable to pullbacks despite continued buying interest. $SPY $NVDA $AMD $LLY $DIS

Much of the recent advance followed the collapse of the highly leveraged Situational Awareness fund, which accelerated short covering and helped reverse the previous decline. While earnings remain strong, investors should look beyond headline growth figures, as one-off investment gains have inflated results. Even after adjusting for these effects, corporate earnings growth remains healthy but less spectacular than widely advertised.

Geopolitics also remain a key driver. Although Washington continues to signal progress in talks with Iran, Tehran maintains negotiations are being conducted through Oman. Meanwhile, Houthi attacks on a Saudi oil tanker have largely been ignored by markets, reflecting continued optimism that tensions will ease.

Looking ahead, investors should remain mindful of historically weaker seasonal performance during September and October, particularly in midterm election years. Nvidia received a boost after SpaceX selected its Blackwell platform for future AI infrastructure, while several major companies, including Eli Lilly, Disney, Shopify and Arista Networks, reported earnings above expectations. Weak ADP employment data also supported equities by reinforcing expectations for a patient Federal Reserve.

Markets are being lifted by strong corporate earnings, falling oil prices, and declining bond yields as optimism grows around a potential U.S.–Iran agreement brokered by Qatar. Lower energy prices and easing yields are improving risk appetite, while seasonal inflows at the start of the month are adding further support. $AMZN $PLTR $CAT $AMD $SPCX

Amazon’s recent earnings-driven breakout highlights the contrast between momentum traders and long-term investors, with founder Jeff Bezos choosing to sell shares into strength rather than chase the rally. Meanwhile, Palantir delivered exceptional results, reinforcing confidence in demand for sovereign AI solutions and enterprise software that prioritizes data control. Caterpillar also posted impressive earnings, citing continued momentum from AI data center construction, helping lift the Dow.

Investors should be cautious about headline earnings growth figures. While reported results appear exceptionally strong, a meaningful portion reflects gains from equity investments rather than underlying operating performance. Excluding those one-off effects still leaves healthy earnings growth, though less spectacular than headline numbers suggest.

On the macro front, the ISM Manufacturing Index reached its strongest level since 2022, indicating a rebound in U.S. manufacturing activity supported by AI infrastructure investment. Attention now shifts to the JOLTS job openings report and after-market earnings from AMD and SpaceX, both of which could significantly influence technology stocks and broader market sentiment.

Falling oil prices are supporting equities as easing geopolitical tensions reduce inflation concerns and pull bond yields lower. After surging during the height of the Iran conflict, oil retreated as the U.S. and Iran resumed negotiations, despite recent violations of their memorandum of understanding. Markets also welcomed President Trump’s decision to refrain from escalating military action following attacks on U.S. bases, with fresh talks beginning today. $USO $MU $AMD $SKHY $BMY

Lower Treasury yields are being driven by the decline in oil prices and coordinated U.S.–Japan intervention to strengthen the yen, providing a tailwind for stocks. However, gains are being tempered by weakness in South Korea, where the Kospi dropped more than 5%, dragging major semiconductor names lower. Samsung and SK Hynix both posted steep declines overnight, weighing on U.S. chipmakers, with Micron among the hardest hit in early trading.

Investors are now turning their attention to a busy week of catalysts. Earnings from AMD and SpaceX are due on August 4, followed by Sandisk on August 5, while the expiration of the SpaceX lockup could add volatility to markets.

Elsewhere, merger discussions between Bristol-Myers Squibb and AstraZeneca are drawing attention, with the potential to reshape the pharmaceutical sector if negotiations progress. Overall, lower yields remain supportive, but semiconductor weakness continues to act as a key headwind for broader market sentiment.

Semiconductor stocks extended their rebound after a sharp selloff triggered widespread margin calls and forced liquidations among leveraged momentum traders. With much of that selling pressure now exhausted, buyers have returned, helping fuel a strong recovery across the sector. Whether the rally can continue depends largely on whether additional leveraged positions still need to be unwound. $SOXL $AMZN $AAPL $SKHY $SSNLF

South Korea mirrored the rebound, with SK Hynix and Samsung posting historic one-day gains after government support measures and fresh AI investment plans boosted confidence. Amazon also lifted market sentiment after reporting strong earnings and rapid AWS growth, alongside plans for massive capital expenditure that reinforced optimism around long-term AI infrastructure demand.

Apple delivered earnings above consensus but fell short of elevated market expectations, while softer guidance and ongoing supply constraints disappointed investors. Ironically, those supply constraints also reinforced demand expectations for semiconductor suppliers.

Elsewhere, Reddit declined despite beating earnings forecasts, highlighting AI’s mixed impact: licensing data to AI companies is generating revenue, but AI-powered search is reducing user engagement.

Investors are also watching elevated Treasury yields, which continue to raise concerns that the Federal Reserve may be lagging inflation risks. Friday’s trading could remain volatile as short covering, profit taking, Middle East developments, and upcoming consumer sentiment data all compete to drive market direction.

Semiconductor stocks remain under pressure, with the leveraged semiconductor ETF making fresh lows after a recent rebound failed at a key resistance level. While technical indicators suggest the sector is becoming oversold and due for a potential bounce, sentiment has weakened significantly. $SOXL

The latest selling follows a sharp 10% decline in South Korea’s KOSPI index, reinforcing the recent pattern of U.S. semiconductor stocks taking their lead from Korean markets. The catalyst is growing concern over rising competition from China after memory chipmaker CXMT’s blockbuster IPO highlighted the country’s rapid progress in semiconductor manufacturing. Investors are also reassessing China’s efforts to develop advanced lithography equipment, although commercial alternatives to ASML’s technology are still considered some distance away. $ASML $MU

Markets are also becoming more cautious about AI-related circular financing, where suppliers help finance customer purchases. Such structures can boost reported sales but delay cash generation, drawing comparisons with practices seen before the 2000 technology crash.

Attention now shifts to the Federal Reserve, with policymakers beginning a two-day meeting ahead of tomorrow’s interest-rate decision. While recent economic data could justify higher rates, political pressure continues to favor lower borrowing costs, leaving room for a surprise.

On the geopolitical front, Oman has proposed a joint management framework for the Strait of Hormuz with Iran, a development that could ease tensions and improve the outlook for global energy markets if negotiations succeed. $QQQ $NVDA

Technology stocks are rebounding, with the Nasdaq 100 bouncing from a key support level as investors aggressively buy AI-related names. The rally is being driven primarily by reports that Nvidia is backing a massive OpenAI data center project in Ohio, potentially involving more than $500B in infrastructure and up to $350B in chip financing. The announcement reinforces confidence that AI investment remains robust, although it also raises concerns about circular financing, where suppliers finance customers’ purchases, echoing practices seen during the dot-com era. $NVDA $QQQ

Market sentiment also improved after President Trump halted military operations against Iran following 13 days of conflict, easing geopolitical fears despite ongoing debate over U.S. munitions supplies. In China, memory chipmaker CXMT surged 466% on its IPO debut, highlighting continued investor enthusiasm for AI infrastructure.

The rapid rise of CXMT also raises strategic questions for U.S. chipmakers. If Apple is eventually permitted to source memory from the Chinese company, it could intensify competition for Micron and reshape the global memory market. $AAPL $MU

Meanwhile, SpaceX shares weakened despite a successful Starship test flight, as investors focused on a large upcoming share unlock that could increase volatility. Separately, durable goods orders came in below expectations, pointing to a softer manufacturing backdrop even as enthusiasm for AI continues to dominate equity markets. $SPCX