The Big Picture
It was a rather uneventful week with most indices finishing with moderate gains. After months of headlines dominated by the US presidential election, Brexit and rising Covid-19 numbers, the narrative seems to lack negative arguments and the bulls thrive. Record high debt and prolonged borrowing does not appear to be of concern for the markets which find their support on the tripod consisting of earnings beats, stimulus bill and positive vaccine news. The employment numbers published this week were mostly in-line and almost ignored, however next week the calendar features data which could affect the markets.
All indices finished higher this week: in the US the Nasdaq led with a 1.7% gain, followed by the S&P500 (+1.5%) and the Dow (+1.0%). The Stoxx gained 1.1% and the Italian index keeps ascending (+1.4%) as Mario Draghi’s new government is sworn in today. The Danish OMX20 finished 1.8% higher. The US Dollar gained 0.6% on the Euro. Crude oil is now back to pre-Covid levels and $Gold finished 0.8% higher. $BTC-USD shot to the upside by 23% following the controversial announcement by Elon Musk about $TSLA investing 1.5 billion USD in the cryptocurrency.
Three stocks of our portfolio reported earning this week.
$DSV.CO reported Q4 earnings on February 12th with a revenue beat and in-line EBIT. The company declared a 4 DKK dividend for 2020 which corresponds to 0.35% yield at today’s price level. The stock gained 10.4% this week due to these results and the positive outlook.
$OR.PA announced the 2020 results this week. The company reported revenues of 28 billion € and operating profit of 18.6%. The e-commerce revenues increased by 62% and the annual dividend has been set at 4€ per share. The outlook remains positive with a projected growth of 4.8% in Q1 2021 despite market volatility and uncertainty.
$ELC.MI reported the Q4 earnings and the preliminary 2020 results. While the company has seen a decline of sales with respect to the previous year, the Q4 revenue was up 15% relative to Q3 driven by its cooking segment. The stock was up 12.1% this week and 35% overall since we bought it.
Notable earnings this week included $DIS who beat expectations and announced more than 90 million Disney+ subscribers, a threshold that only 9 months ago they were expecting to reach no sooner than in 2023.
Returning to our portfolio, $NEM will report their Q4 earnings next week.
$SYF went ex-dividend last week, the quarterly dividend is payable on February 16th. The quarterly dividend for $BK was paid on Friday. Most Danish companies go ex-dividend in March, while Italian stocks traditionally pay a dividend in late May and US stocks distribute quarterly dividends.
Our portfolio gained 3.2% this week whereas the weighted average of the relevant market indices finished 1.4% higher which means that we beat the market by 1.8%.
$WBD.MI gained more than 10% supported by the prospect of infrastructure investment in Italy thanks to the the EU Recovery Fund. $UMC had another great week with a 12% gain – the stock is up 77% in less than 4 months.
Our Responsible Investor portfolio is now up 24.0% (24.9% including dividends) in 37 weeks. We are about 61% in stocks & ETFs and 39% in cash. On my watchlist this week I have $NIO, $CMG, $VIAV, $MSFT, $AMBU-B.CO and $OCDO.L.
The table below summarises the portfolio performance since inception.
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