The Big Picture
The sell-off in the 10-year treasuries continues as yields rose by ten basis points to 1.72% this week. The FOMC meeting minutes indicate that there is no short term intention of stopping the economy from running hotter. Many consider the bond market boring however understanding its behaviour is key as it is much larger than the equity market and a sell-off in the former often offers opportunities in the latter. It is however important to select the right stocks in a rising interest environment. The rotation from growth and tech stocks to value stocks, especially small and mid caps, was reaffirmed this week.
The general optimism is still intact and standing on the well-established tripod of stimulus, positive Covid-19 data and strong earnings. There is a growing consensus between analysts on how the 1400$ stimulus checks will be spent: the re-opening trade manifests itself in strong bookings for holiday travel and the rise in airline and hotel stock prices. Meanwhile the US reached the 118 million doses mark this week. The news of a tax hike, both for the corporate world and the wealthy did not impact negatively on the sentiment and there is much anticipation for next Thursday’s press conference at which president Biden is expected to reveal more information on the infrastructure stimulus package.
The stock market indices were mixed this week: in the US the Dow fell by 0.5%, followed by the Nasdaq (-0.8%) and the S&P500 (-0.8%). In Europe, the Stoxx rose by a nominal 0.1% while the Italian index gained 0.4%. The Danish OMX20 finished the week 0.4% higher. The US Dollar gained 0.4% relative to the Euro. Crude $oil was markedly lower (-5%) while $Gold gained 1.1%. $BTC-USD was on a rollercoaster this week and ended with a 1.2% decline.
None of our stocks reported their Q4 earnings last week.
Notable earnings included $ACN who beats on earnings and revenue and guided higher, $NIKE who marginally missed on earnings but beat on earnings, and $FDX who beat on both the top and the bottom line by a significant margin relative to consensus estimates.
$WBD.MI, $TRN.MI and $TCEHY will be the last three stocks in our portfolio reporting earnings this week.
$NEM paid its quarterly dividend this week, while $DSV.CO and $DANSKE.CO paid their annual dividend. Italian stocks traditionally pay an annual dividend in late May. US stocks distribute quarterly dividends.
Our portfolio lost 0.4% this week whereas the weighted average of the relevant market indices finished 0.2% lower.
This week’s winner was $NEM with a 5% gain supported by the recent strength in gold.
Our Responsible Investor portfolio is now up 28.5% (29.5% including dividends) in 42 weeks and is beating the market by 2.7% over the same period. We are about 60% in stocks & ETFs and 40% in cash. On my watchlist this week I have $WMT, $MSFT, $AMBU-B.CO, $ARES and $AA.
The table below summarises the portfolio performance since inception.
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