Responsible Investor Portfolio Weekly Update, January 16th, 2021 | $TCEHY $NEM $BK $SYF $CLIX $GRUB $PCG $LVMUY $LRLCY $PEUGF $IMPJY $TERRF $DSV.CO $DANSKE.CO $BRK $UMC $JD $ADSK $GMAB $DVA $CMG $KBH $OCDGF $AVGO $COUP $LMND $TRYG.CO $ADBE

The Big Picture

Even though inauguration day is not until next Wednesday, it really feels like this past week has been the first week of office for President-elect Joe Biden: it started with the House voting in favour of impeaching Trump following the violent events from the previous week and it continued with the prospect of a 1.9 trillion USD stimulus bill announced by Biden on Thursday which was a slight disappointment though it still came within the expected range. It is noted that this is the first of two stimulus interventions with the second one currently planned for the month of February.

As the number of available vaccines multiplies the attention is shifting towards how quickly they can be roll-out to achieve herd immunity. So far expectations remain unmet in most countries with Israel and Denmark representing notable exceptions. Biden has committed to achieving 100 million vaccinations in his first 100 days in office. The general sentiment is that despite this week’s retracement the bull market remains intact: investors will need to keep watching the vaccination roll-out to be on top of an environment very sensitive to negative news. The J&J vaccine is believed to play a key role in the roll-out as it belongs to the traditional kind and only requires a single shot, an important advantage especially in developing countries.

Market Performance

All indices were down this week: in the US the Nasdaq lost 1.6%, followed by the S&P500 (-1.5%) and the Dow (-0.9%). The Stoxx finished lower (-0.7%) and so did the Italian index (-1.8%) which was affected by the looming possibility of a change of government. The Danish OMX20 erased the gains of last week and finished 1.7% lower. The US Dollar gained 1.2% on the Euro as technical analysts see increasing signs of relative strength after loosing about 10% in 2020. Crude oil and $Gold finished higher. $BTC-USD had a rollercoaster week and lost 9.6% of its value.

Earnings

A few large US banks released their earnings on Friday: while all of them beat earnings they finished lower after the announcements. $JPM stood out and $WFC underwhelmed. $KBH beat earnings on Tuesday: I like the stock and own it in another portfolio.

In corporate news, our Danish drug/biotech $GMAB received $40M milestone payment in AbbVie collaboration and shot up 5.8% this week. The stock remains grossly undervalued and poised for more growth.

Next week more bank earnings are due, including $BK which we own, as well as $NFLX, $PG and $INTC among others.

Dividends

The next dividend payments for our stocks are due in March, which is when most Danish company go ex-dividend. Most Italian stocks traditionally pay dividend in late May, while US stocks distribute quarterly dividends.

Portfolio Performance

Our portfolio down up 0.6% whereas the weighted average of the relevant market indices finished 1.4% lower, which means we have beaten the market this week (+0.8%).

It was another great week for our financial and fin-tech stocks: $SYF gained 6% and $BK added 1.7%. $TCEHY keeps pushing higher and gained 6.9%. $UMC added 3.3% and is now up 54% since we bought it. $MC.PA retraced 6%.

Our Responsible Investor portfolio is now up 16.9% (17.8% including dividends) in 33 weeks. We are about 58% in stocks & ETFs and 42% in cash. On my watchlist this week I have $DVA, $CMG, $AVGO, $LMND, $TRYG.CO and $OCDO.L.

The table below summarises the portfolio performance since inception.

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Responsible Investor Portfolio Weekly Update, January 9th, 2021 | $TCEHY $NEM $BK $SYF $CLIX $GRUB $PCG $LVMUY $LRLCY $PEUGF $IMPJY $TERRF $DSV.CO $DANSKE.CO $BRK $UMC $JD $ADSK $GMAB $DVA $CMG $MA $CRWD $AVGO $COUP $LMND $TRYG.CO $ADBE

The Big Picture

The disconnect between the physical world and the stock market was particularly evident this week as Wall Street rallied during the Capitol Hill insurrection. Stimulus and money printing continues to inflate the market and boost valuations. From that point of view, the outcome of the Georgia senate race in favour of the Democrats is believed to further increase borrowing and allow the ongoing reflation trade to continue. It is however considered unlikely that the razor thin majority that the Democrats will have in Congress will allow Biden’s administration to pass radical reforms, especially on the corporate tax side.

This week was the time of the Moderna vaccine approval in the UK and in Europe. The increase of doses that the various vaccines offer is helping the market retain a positive outlook for 2021 and beyond. The growing number of cases and deaths in the US as well as in the UK does not seem to cause significant concerns for investors who experienced an “everything rally” first week of trading in 2021. Studies and expert opinions about the efficacy of the vaccines on the new strains of Covid-19 keep coming in but do not steal the scene in the news cycles.

Market Performance

All indices were up this week: in the US the Nasdaq led with a 2.4% gain, followed by the Dow (+1.8%) and the S&P500 (+1.6%). The Stoxx rallied (+3.0%) and so did the Italian index (+2.5%) despite the possibility of a change of government. The Danish OMX20 finished 1.4% higher. The US Dollar lost ground relative to the Euro reversing the trend from the previous two weeks. Crude oil joined the markets in the rally while $Gold finished lower. $BTC-USD gained more than 30% in a single week and whizzed past the 423.6% fib.

Earnings

A handful of earnings were released this week. Notable ones include $BBBY and $CAG who missed expectations, and $STZ and $MU who beat on both the top and the bottom line.

In other corporate news, $FCA.MI and $UG.PA announced that they will begin trading under the ticker of the newly formed merger company Stellantis next week.

The earning season starts next week with the first batch of bank stocks.

Dividends

The next dividend payments for our stocks are due in March, which is when most Danish company go ex-dividend. Most Italian stocks traditionally pay dividend in late May, while US stocks distribute quarterly dividends.

Portfolio Performance

Our portfolio was up 1.7% whereas the weighted average of the relevant market indices finished 2.2% higher.

The financial stocks keep pushing higher: $SYF gained 5.4% and $DANSKE.CO jumped 8.2%; $BK added 5.6% and is now up 20% overall. Our Chinese stocks had a very good week with $TCEHY and $JD gaining 7% and 4.1%, respectively. There is an ongoing political battle between the US and China over Chinese stocks trading in the US which, while it has not affected our positions so far, needs to be watched closely.

Our Responsible Investor portfolio is now up 17.3% (18.3% including dividends) in 8 months. We are about 58% in stocks & ETFs and 42% in cash. On my watchlist this week I have $DVA, $CMG, $MA, $CRWD, $AVGO, $LMND, $TRYG.CO and $ADBE.

The table below summarises the portfolio performance since inception.

If you don’t want to miss my alerts, please subscribe to Responsible Investor or follow me on Twitter. I also run an eToro portfolio which currently has 35+ positions and can be accessed via this link.

Responsible Investor Portfolio Weekly Update, December 12th, 2020 | $TCEHY $NEM $BK $SYF $CLIX $GRUB $PCG $LVMUY $LRLCY $PEUGF $IMPJY $TERRF $DSV.CO $DANSKE.CO $BRK $UMC $JD $ADSK $GMAB $DVA $ROKU $LMND $AMWL $AMT $ADBE $LULU $AVGO

The Big Picture

The pandemic continues to worsen in the US both in terms of daily cases and deaths. Reports now anticipate the peak to occur in January. Additional restrictions have been imposed this week, including the banning of indoor dining in New York and travel restrictions in the state of California. Despite these mitigation measures, the Christmas season is only expected to exacerbate the situation as people gather in any way they can. It surely feels like now would be a good time to pass that stimulus package, however speaker Pelosi is now anticipating the talks to continue over Christmas lengthening the time since they were initiated over summer.

On the data front, this weeks reports were mixed with the jobless claims surpassing 850k which corresponds to the largest week on week increase in the last 3 months. On the flipside, the Michigan University consumer sentiment index for December rose to 81.4 from 76.9 in the prior month.

The FDA advisory board voted in favour of the $PFE vaccine which has started being deployed in the UK. Next Thursday will be the time of the $MRNA vaccine. It seems that the market has already factored in the positive outcome of these emergency authorizations such that any delay to their approval could have an adverse, short-term impact.

Market Performance

The US market indices fell this week, led by the S&P500, down 1.0%, followed by the Nasdaq (-0.7%) and the Dow (-0.6%). The IPO bonanza is seen as one of the factors which caused the sell-off as fund managers rebalanced their portfolios to embellish them with popular names such as $ABNB and $DASH. The Stoxx was also lower (-1.0%) and the Italian index experienced a sharp decline (-2.2%) due political uncertainty. The Danish OMX20 finished 2.0% higher after two consecutive weeks of decline. The US Dollar was mostly unchanged relative to the Euro and gold finished flat.

Earnings

$ADBE beat earnings on Thursday after the market close and upped the 2021 guidance. While the company has seen its growth rate reducing to below 20% per year, it is still in the late teens. $LULU posted a surprised profit in Q3 and grew revenue by 21% yoy. I like them both but feel our exposure to the technology and the consumer discretionary sectors is well balanced in our portfolio at the moment.

In other corporate news, $DIS upped their projected subscriptions at the Investor Day by a factor or three which led the stock to a +15% finish for the week. $AAPL announced they are developing their own cellular modem which sent $QCOM sharply down.

Dividends

This week $NEM went ex-dividend and paid their quarterly dividend. We have one more stock of our portfolio going ex-dividend in December.

Portfolio Performance

We closed our remaining position on $GRUB this week after having halved it back in the middle of October. Overall, the investment yielded a whopping 35% profit.

Our Responsible Investor portfolio is now up 12.3% (13.2% including dividends) in 28 weeks. We are about 55% in stocks & ETFs and 45% in cash. On my watchlist this week I have $DVA, $AMWL, $LMND, $AMT, $AVGO and $ADBE.

The table below summarises the portfolio performance since inception.

If you don’t want to miss my alerts, please subscribe to Responsible Investor or follow me on Twitter. I also run an eToro portfolio which currently has 35+ positions and can be accessed via this link.

Responsible Investor Portfolio Weekly Update, December 5th, 2020 | $TCEHY $NEM $BK $SYF $CLIX $GRUB $PCG $LVMUY $LRLCY $PEUGF $IMPJY $TERRF $DSV.CO $DANSKE.CO $BRK $UMC $JD $ADSK $GMAB $DVA $ROKU $LMND $AMWL $AMT

The Big Picture

The US jobs report disappointed as only 245k jobs were added in November compared to more than 600k in October. This may well be a sign of the economic recovery slowing down which isn’t all surprising given the worsening situation of the pandemic in the US with Joe Biden intending to require citizens to wear masks for 100 days. Meanwhile the US Congress seems closer to agreeing on a stimulus package after weeks of deadlock as the democrats lower their ask to just below one trillion USD. On the vaccine front the FDA advisory board will meet on December 10th to discuss the approval of the $PFE vaccine and 7 days later for the $MRNA vaccine.

Market Performance

The US market indices were all up this week, led by the Nasdaq which gained 2.1%, followed by the S&P500 (+1.7%) and the Dow (+1.0%). After reaching 30,000 last week, the Dow finished at all times highs again this week. Europe was mixed: the Stoxx was only marginally higher (+0.3%) whereas the Italian index finished 0.8% lower and the OMX20 fell considerably (-2.2%). The US Dollar was weaker, though, and depreciated 1.29% versus the Euro. This weakness sent gold futures higher by 2.9% this week.

Earnings

Some of the stocks we are watching released Q3 earnings this week as the earnings season draws to a close. $DOCU for example beat earnings expectations on both the top and the bottom line: I really like this stock but it is difficult to keep up such a growth rate. On the cybersecurity sector $CRWD also beat earnings and added about 1,200 new customer subscriptions. Ollie’s Bargain Outlet (ticker: $OLLI) beat earnings but it is likely to feel the pressure in Q4 due to mounting concerns about C-19 numbers in the US.

None of our stocks reported earnings this week.

Dividends

This week $MC.PA went ex-dividend and paid a 0.92% dividend. The stock finished lower this week but is now up 28% since inception. Two more stocks of our portfolio go ex-dividend in December.

Portfolio Performance

Our semiconductor stock $UMC is on a tear: with this week’s 27% gain our position is up 55% in just 6 weeks. We haven’t seen any significant news to justify this action and it may just be the market catching up on its compelling valuation: at Friday’s close price, the stock now has a PEG ratio of about 1 which makes it fairly valued.

Our Responsible Investor portfolio is now up 14.9% (15.9% including dividends) in 27 weeks. We are about 56% in stocks & ETFs and 44% in cash. I am always on the lookout for possible new buys and am keen to enter the insurance as well as the telemedicine sectors in the not too distant future. On my watchlist this week I have $DVA, $AMWL, $LMND and $AMT.

The table below summarises the portfolio performance since inception.

If you don’t want to miss my alerts, please subscribe to Responsible Investor or follow me on Twitter. I also run an eToro portfolio which currently has 35+ positions and can be accessed via this link.