November 12th, 2022 | Zero earnings growth for 2023: is this week’s rally short-lived? | $META $FTNT $THO $KSS $GLD $SLV $MP $GILD $AIG $GL $USB $ORI $AJRD $NEM $FCX $DIS

Weekly summary in a paragraph

A mildly positive inflation data point on Wednesday was all it took to send the global stock markets higher and induce weakness in the US dollar. I don’t want to be the Cassandra of the situation here, but one month on month data point does not seem enough to justify a reversal of the general trend though technical analysis would suggest further strength ahead at least in the short term.

It was an even stronger week for the European stock market which was further amplified by strength in the Euro.

Asset classes weekly performance

This week the Dow gained +4.1% (-7.2% YTD) while the S&P500 went +5.6% higher (-16.2% YTD, we are 1x short), the Nasdaq skyrocketed +8.0% (-29.0% YTD, we have a 3x inverse position) and the Russell 2000 gained +4.6% (-16.7% YTD, we are 1x short). $Gold rose +5.2% (-4.4% YTD) while silver finished +3.6% higher (-7.2% YTD). $Oil gave up -4.0% (+18.3% YTD). The 20-y recovered +3.9% this week (-33.7% YTD). The European stock market outperformed the US market indices and finished +9.6% higher (-19.2% YTD). The Euro recovered as much as +4.0% relative to the USD (-11.5% YTD).

Weekly pitch

As most of the S&P500 companies have reported Q3 earnings, there is now sufficient data to update earnings forecasts. This week Goldman Sachs revised their S&P500 earnings forecast to the downside ($224 USD) to conclude that they now expect zero earnings growth for 2023. Because stocks follow earnings and earnings expectations, investors will now have to look to 2024 (current estimate is $237 hence +6% compared to ’22 and ‘23) to justify staying invested on the long side.

Weekly Portfolio Update

We initiated three new positions on $NEM, $KSS, and $USB which are already profitable trades. We have also increased our position in gold: if dollar continues its weakness this will send its price higher. Cash, precious metals and hedges were reduced to 37% in our portfolio which rose +2.77% this week.

Top 5 Weekly Portfolio Performers

$META +24.49% (Technology-Social Media)

$FTNT +19.17% (Technology-Software-Security)

$THO +17.38% (Building-Mobile Manufacturing/RV)

$DUE.DE +15.52% (Industrial – Germany)

$KSS +15.24% (Consumer-Dept. Stores)

Portfolio Asset Allocation

– Long stock positions 63% (increased)

– Hedges 9%, though equal to 14% considering leveraged ETFs (unchanged)

– Silver + Gold 4% (increased)

– Cash 24% (decreased)

YTD Portfolio Performance

Our currency-adjusted YTD portfolio performance is -2.2% (excl. dividends) vs the European market loss of -7.7% (+5.5% market beat).

Invest responsibly!!!

November 7th, 2022 | Does the recent election in Brazil offer an investment opportunity? | $EWZ $PBR $VALE $SQQQ $FCX $SLV $CPE $CBOE $SBSW $KO $AAPL $GOOG $META $MSFT $MP $NEM $CPE $ORSTED.CO

Weekly summary in a paragraph

A slew of positive economic data and a consistently hawkish Fed sent the US stock market lower this week. Despite indications that the next Fed’s interest rate hike may be contained to 0.5% after this week’s 0.75% increase, the jobs market is still too strong and inflation does not seem to slow down enough for the Fed to change its course such that the tightening monetary policy is limiting any upside potential at least in the short term.

On the other side of the pond, the European stock market staged the second week of gains.

Asset classes weekly performance

This week the Dow lost -1.4% (-11.9% YTD) while the S&P500 gave up -3.3% of gains (-20.9% YTD, we are 1x short), the Nasdaq tanked -5.6% (-33.9% YTD, we have a 3x inverse position) and the Russell 2000 lost -2.4% (-20.9% YTD, we are 1x short). $Gold gained +2.2% (-11.2% YTD) while silver skyrocketed +8.5% (-16.6% YTD). $Oil rose 4.9%. The 20-y recovered +5.7% this week (-35.3% YTD). The European stock market rose +1.3% (-28.3% YTD). The Euro finished flat against the USD (-13.3% YTD).

Weekly pitch

Following the marginal win of former president Lula, Brazil presents itself as more attractive economy to foreign investors. Additionally, rising oil prices are lifting the stock market since the Bovespa is heavily weighted on oil stocks such as $PBR which counts as 10% while the mining company $VALE reaches 15%. Former president Bolsonaro has not yet conceded though has signalled that he will collaborate in the transition. Brazil currently looks like an interesting investing opportunity unlike most of the emerging markets.

Weekly Portfolio Update

We initiated a position on the Brazilian stock market $EWZ which is already a profitable trade. We also went long on $USB, a regional US bank. We sold our positions on $PCTY and $FIS. Cash, precious metals and hedges were increased to 38% in our portfolio which beat the market by +2.2% this week.

Here are the top 5 performers of our portfolio this week:

$SQQQ +18.67% (3x inverse Nasdaq ETF)

$FCX +9.29% (Basic Materials-Metal Ores)

$SLV +8.57% (Silver ETF)

$EWZ +7.69% (Brazil Stock Market ETF)

$CPE +5.08% (Energy)

This is our asset allocation as things stand:

– Long stock positions 62% (increased)

– Hedges 9%, though equal to 14% considering leveraged ETFs (unchanged)

– Silver + Gold 3% (unchanged)

– Cash 26% (increased)

Our currency-adjusted YTD portfolio performance is -2.3% (excl. dividends) vs the European market loss of -15.0% (+12.7% market beat).

Invest responsibly!!!

October 29th, 2022 | Should you still be invested in Apple, Microsoft, Google and Amazon? | $GOOG $AMZN $MSFT $AAPL $META $GILD $TLT $GL $AIG $CHTR $ORSTED.CO $PINS $BWA $FIS $CMG $V $MBG.DE $CARLB.CO $EL.PA $DSV.CO $GMAB

Weekly summary in a paragraph

It was a tale of two stock markets in the US: while all the major indices continued to rally for the second week in a row, major tech companies reported poor earnings and most importantly week outlook which limited gains for the Nasdaq. Given the hotter than expected inflation data (core PCE came in at 0.5% vs 0.4% consensus) this recent optimism seems largely unjustified although we are heading towards a period of positive seasonality coupled with favourable technicals.

Asset classes weekly performance

This week the Dow gained +3.9% (-11.9% YTD) just like the S&P500 (-18.2% YTD, we are 1x short) and the Nasdaq limited its advance to +2.2% (-31.0% YTD, we have a 3x inverse position). The Russell 2000 skyrocketed +6.0% (-19.5% YTD, we are 1x short). $Gold lost 0.6% (-9.5% YTD) while silver finished flat -0.1% (-16.4% YTD). $Oil rose 3.4%. The 20-y recovered +5.7% this week (-34.2% YTD). The European stock market rose +4.9% (-26.5% YTD). The Euro recovered 1.0% against the USD (-10.9% YTD).

Weekly pitch

The four biggest tech companies in the US stock market all reported earnings this week. There are clear signs of weakness in all four although $AAPL appears more resilient. These are all companies full with an incredible pool of talented individuals though more short-term pain ahead is likely. We had exited our position in $AMZN and $AAPL at the beginning of August, just before they peaked. $META’s earnings were particularly concerning especially the reported losses from investments associated to the metaverse.

Weekly Portfolio Update

After the blowout earnings report $GILD rose sharply and finished with a 19% weekly gain: we have taken partial profit (+26.45%) on our long position. We have also taken partial profits on our short-term $TLT trade (+3.8%). Finally, we initiated long positions on $MP and $AJRD. Cash, precious metals and hedges were reduced to 37% in our portfolio which finished 1.64% higher this week.

Here are the top 5 performers of our portfolio this week:

$GILD +16.93% (Drug-Biotech)

$CHTR +11.45% (Telecom Services)

$BWA +9.55% (Auto/Truck-Original Equipment)

$ORSTED.CO +9.54 (Green Energy)

$FIS +9.08% (Financial)

This is our asset allocation as things stand:

– Long stock positions 63% (increased)

– Hedges 9%, though equal to 15% considering leveraged ETFs (unchanged)

– Silver + Gold 3% (unchanged)

– Cash 25% (decreased)

Our currency-adjusted YTD portfolio performance is -3.8% (excl. dividends) vs the European market loss of -15.6% (+11.8% market beat).

Invest responsibly!!!

Responsible Investor Portfolio Weekly Update, May 8th, 2021 | $TCEHY $NEM $BK $SYF $CLIX $PCG $LVMUY $LRLCY $STLA $IMPJY $TERRF $DSV.CO $DANSKE.CO $BRK $UMC $JD $ADSK $GMAB $ORSTED.CO $NIO $CMG $RH $RBLX $COIN $VIAV $MSFT $TRYG.CO $LOW

The Big Picture

Our weekly blog returns after a week of gains for most stock markets with the notable exception of the Nasdaq which finished 1.5% lower and has now lost ground for the third consecutive week: if you are still holding on to the stocks which made great gains in 2020, chances are that you are in the red so far in 2021. There appear to be greater opportunities for capital appreciation in value stocks which also feature good momentum.

The jobs report unexpectedly disappointed and this fuelled a rally on Friday as retail investors pumped more money in the stock market on the assumption that heavy borrowing and low interest rates will continue indefinitely. Despite some of the indices hitting all time highs the risk for a correction is still there which is why it is important not to be fully invested at this time. Scroll below to see what percentage of our portfolio is in cash.

88% of the S&P500 stocks have reported their Q1 earnings so far: the numbers are impressive such that there are several analysts discussing the possibility of this past quarter coinciding with the peak in earnings which would suggest an impending bearish cycle.

Market Performance

Most of the stock market indices recovered this week following last week’s decline: in the US the Dow was the best performer with a 2.7% gain, followed by the S&P500 which finished 1.2% higher whereas the Nasdaq which finished markedly lower (-1.5%). In Europe, the Stoxx gained 1.8% while the Italian stock market was even stronger and finished 2.0% higher. The Danish OMX20 is on a bullish 9-week streak and was 1.0% higher this week. The US Dollar lost 1.1% on the Euro. Crude $oil gained 2.8% and $Gold showed great strength by appreciating 3.6%. $BTC-USD swung within a 10% range and finished 2.1% higher.

Earnings

Eight of our stocks reported Q1 earnings the week before last:

DSV beat on earnings and revenue

DANSKE beat on net profit

ORSTED missed on revenue

SYF beat on earnings and revenue

UFC beat on earnings and missed on revenue

NEM missed on both the top and the bottom line but the

PCG missed on earnings but beat on revenue and reaffirmed guidance

BRK-B beat on earnings.

$GMAB announced their Q1 earnings on Wednesday with solid gains compared to the same quarter in 2020. The company reported a five-fold increase in operating results and maintained the guidance for 2021 set out earlier in the year. $ELC.MI reported their earnings on the same day and beat consensus as well as raised their guidance: we have a 4.4€ target price on this stock which is already up 41.4% since we bought it.

Next week $JD and $INW.MI will report their Q1 earnings.

Dividends

$OR.PA and $STLA.MI paid their dividend the week before last: our total dividend yield so far is 1.3%. Next week $WBD.MI goes ex-dividend. Our Danish stocks paid their annual dividends earlier this year. Italian stocks traditionally pay an annual dividend in late May. US stocks distribute quarterly dividends.

Portfolio Performance

Our portfolio gained 1.8% this week whereas the weighted average of the relevant market indices finished 1.5% higher, which corresponds to a 0.3% market beat.

This week’s portfolio winners were $STLA.MI which was up 8.1% and mining company $NEM which gained 7.9% (+16.6% since initiation) helped by gold strength.

Our Responsible Investor portfolio is now up 35.1% (36.4% including dividends) in 49 weeks and is beating the market by 3.3% over the same period. We are about 64% in stocks & ETFs and 36% in cash.

The table below summarises the portfolio performance since inception.

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Responsible Investor Portfolio Weekly Update, April 24th, 2021 | $TCEHY $NEM $BK $SYF $CLIX $PCG $LVMUY $LRLCY $STLA $IMPJY $TERRF $DSV.CO $DANSKE.CO $BRK $UMC $JD $ADSK $GMAB $ORSTED.CO $NIO $CMG $RH $RBLX $COIN $VIAV $MSFT $TRYG.CO $LOW

The Big Picture

The month-long rally in US stock markets came to a halt at the end of rather volatile week of trading. While the bullish narrative is still considered intact, there are various headwinds which could affect the markets going forward, including the fear of a third wave, rising inflation, and stretched valuations.

Biden’s announcement of the capital gain tax hike took a toll on the stock markets on Thursday, however analysts and investors started reconsidering its impact as early as on Friday on the basis of the fact that it is actually old news and that it only affects less than 1% of the investors.

Market Performance

Most of the stock market indices were down up this week: in the US the Dow was the worst performer with a 0.5% decline, while the S&P500 was only marginally lower (-0.1%) followed by the Nasdaq which finished 0.2% down. In Europe, the Stoxx lost 0.8% while the Italian finished 1.4% lower. The Danish OMX20 is on a bullish 7-week streak and gained 1.4% this week. The US Dollar retraced relative to the Euro (-1.0%) for the third week in a row. Crude $oil lost 1.0% and $Gold was flat. $BTC-USD had an ugly week and finished 10.5% lower.

Earnings

While none of our stocks reported earnings this week, dozens of Q1 earnings reports were published: notable ones included $NFLX who beat analysts’ expectations, but missed new subscription expectations and $CMG who rallied on record revenue and triple-digit digital sales growth.

Next week many of our stocks will report their Q1 earnings: $DSV.CO, $DANSKE.CO, $ORSTED.CO, $SYF, $NEM, $PCG and $BRK-B.

Dividends

$MC.PA and $STLA.MI went ex-dividend this week: the former has already paid the dividend whereas the latter will do so next week. Our Danish stocks paid their annual dividends earlier this year. Italian stocks traditionally pay an annual dividend in late May. US stocks distribute quarterly dividends.

Portfolio Performance

Our portfolio gained 0.7% this week whereas the weighted average of the relevant market indices finished 0.3% lower, which corresponds to a 1.0% market beat: it is great to finish up on a down week!

This week’s portfolio winners were $UMC which was up 12% and Italian consumer cyclical stock $ELC.MI which gained 4.5% (+31.6% since initiation).

Our Responsible Investor portfolio is now up 33.8% (34.8% including dividends) in 47 weeks and is beating the market by 3.2% over the same period. We are about 63% in stocks & ETFs and 37% in cash.

The table below summarises the portfolio performance since inception.

Responsible Investor Portfolio Weekly Update, April 17th, 2021 | $TCEHY $NEM $BK $SYF $CLIX $PCG $LVMUY $LRLCY $STLA $IMPJY $TERRF $DSV.CO $DANSKE.CO $BRK $UMC $JD $ADSK $GMAB $ORSTED.CO $NIO $CMG $RH $RBLX $COIN $VIAV $MSFT $TRYG.CO $LOW

The Big Picture

The US stock markets delivered the fourth consecutive week of gains with all its indices being up more than 1% this week. The bullish sentiment continues to be driven by positive earnings, the impact of stimulus initiatives and positive vaccine/covid-19 data.

The Q1 2021 earnings season kicked off in earnest this week, with several large banks reporting solid numbers: there is however some concern over these earnings already being priced in the current market valuation which could lead to a short term consolidation phase.

On the vaccine front the freeze on the roll-out of the $JNJ vaccine did not seem to affect the estimate of 200 million doses over the first 100 days of vaccinations.

Market Performance

The stock market indices were all up this week: in the US the Dow had a 1.2% gain, while the S&P500 was the strongest index (+1.4%) followed by the Nasdaq which finished 1.1% higher. In Europe, the Stoxx gained 1.2% while the Italian finished 1.3% higher. The Danish OMX20 continued its bullish ride and gained 1.2% this week. The US Dollar retraced relative to the Euro (-0.6%) for the second week in a row. Crude $oil gained 5.7% and $Gold was 2% firmer. $BTC-USD gained 3.4%.

Earnings

Our luxury company stock $MC.PA reported Q1 earnings on Wednesday which grossly exceeded analysts expectations: revenue was up 30% from the same period in 2019. While sales in Europe continue to lag due to partial lockdowns in French and Italy, revenue figures were boosted by the Asian region.

$BK announced better than expected Q1 earnings on Friday but traded 4.4% lower possibly due to many of the other banks stocks showing stronger recovery data. The New York bank’s revenue is still 5% down from last year and the EPS was reported at 0.97$ vs 1.05$ a year ago. Despite this week’s drop, we have gained 23.5% on $BK on the tailwind of a rising interest environment.

In corporate news $MSFT announced the acquisition of $NUAN, its greatest purchase since LinkedIn, which happens just a few weeks after having disclosed being in talks to acquire Discord. $COIN IPO turned out to be a great success.

Dividends

$MC.PA and $STLA.MI go ex-dividend next week. Our Danish stocks paid their annual dividends earlier this year. Italian stocks traditionally pay an annual dividend in late May. US stocks distribute quarterly dividends.

Portfolio Performance

Our portfolio gained 0.9% this week whereas the weighted average of the relevant market indices finished 1.3% higher.

This week’s portfolio winners were $MC.PA which was up 7.1% thanks to blow-out earnings and $NEM which gained 6.3% benefitting from the raise in the price of gold.

Our Responsible Investor portfolio is now up 33.1% (34.1% including dividends) in 46 weeks and is beating the market by 2.2% over the same period. We are about 63% in stocks & ETFs and 37% in cash.

The table below summarises the portfolio performance since inception.

Responsible Investor Portfolio Weekly Update, April 10th, 2021 | $TCEHY $NEM $BK $SYF $CLIX $PCG $LVMUY $LRLCY $STLA $IMPJY $TERRF $DSV.CO $DANSKE.CO $BRK $UMC $JD $ADSK $GMAB $ORSTED.CO $NIO $CMG $RH $RBLX $AA $VIAV $MSFT $TRYG.CO $LOW

The Big Picture

It was another “more of the same” week in the US stock markets with records continuing to be broken and interest rates lacking clear direction. Negotiations on the corporate tax hike are reportedly bringing the two parties to converge on the 25% mark from the initial value of 28%. This increase would see the 2022 earnings shrink by 3%.

Despite the strong employment numbers from the March reports, the fact that the target unemployment rate and the inflation goals are still unmet suggests that the Fed will continue keeping the interest rates unchanged and printing money for the foreseeable future in order to fuel this bull market.

Vaccine roll-out sees increasing volumes in the US, with 3 million daily doses now being the norm and peaks of 4 million achieved for the first time yesterday.

Market Performance

The stock market indices were generally up this week: in the US the Dow had a 2% gain, while the Nasdaq was the strongest index (+3.1%) followed by the S&P500 which finished 2.7% higher. In Europe, the Stoxx gained 1.2% while the Italian index declined 1.2%. The Danish OMX20 had the fifth consecutive week of gains and finished 2% higher. The US Dollar retraced relative to the Euro (-1.2%). Crude $oil declined 2.3% and $Gold gained 0.9%. $BTC-USD was on a rollercoaster this week and finished 0.3% lower.

Earnings

Notable earnings this week included $LEVI which reported a solid beat and positive guidance driven by faster return to pre-pandemic levels expectations and $STZ which traded lower after announcing a revenue and earnings beat as well as a “conservative” guidance: the markets are forward looking and sometimes beating earnings can be offset by weak guidance. Neither of them makes my watchlist due to their high valuations.

The Q1 2021 earnings season will commence next week for our portfolio with $BK scheduled to announce their earnings on Friday together with a number of other major US banks.

Dividends

Our Danish stocks paid their annual dividends earlier this year. Italian stocks traditionally pay an annual dividend in late May. US stocks distribute quarterly dividends.

Portfolio Performance

Our portfolio gained 0.6% this week whereas the weighted average of the relevant market indices finished 1.5% higher.

This week’s portfolio winners were $ADSK and $OR.PA with a 4.8% and a 4.5% gain, respectively. The banks and financial stocks were also strong and outperformed the market. Our two tech Chinese stocks lagged due to pressure exerted by their government.

Our Responsible Investor portfolio is now up 32.2% (33.2% including dividends) in 45 weeks and is beating the market by 2.5% over the same period. We are about 62% in stocks & ETFs and 38% in cash.

The table below summarises the portfolio performance since inception.

Responsible Investor Portfolio Weekly Update, April 3rd, 2021 | $TCEHY $NEM $BK $SYF $CLIX $PCG $LVMUY $LRLCY $STLA $IMPJY $TERRF $DSV.CO $DANSKE.CO $BRK $UMC $JD $ADSK $GMAB $ORSTED.CO $NIO $CMG $RH $RBLX $AA $VIAV $MSFT $TRYG.CO $LOW

The Big Picture

The US stock markets all traded higher and near all time highs in this short Easter week. The 10-year treasuries finished higher at 1.72%. While fiscal stimulus is still seen as a positive for stocks there are growing concerns about inflation and an overheated economy. The prospect of higher taxes is another potential catalyst to undermine the bullish narrative.

More details were announced on the 2.25T dollar infrastructure plan which will span over 8 years. Many related stocks gapped higher although this package is likely to be more of a slow-burner and will take time and negotiations to pass through Congress.

The US economy added 961,000 jobs in March, way more than expectations with estimates at 675,000. The unemployment rate fell to 6%. While this is seen as a clear sign of a recovering economy there are still 8 million jobs missing compared to pre-pandemic level.

Market Performance

The stock market indices were all up this week: in the US the Dow lagged with just a 0.2% gain, while the Nasdaq strongly rebounded (+2.6%) and the S&P500 finished 1.1% higher. In Europe, the Stoxx gained 1.2% and the Italian index rose by 1.3%. The Danish OMX20 finished 2.6% higher. The US Dollar keeps gaining over the Euro (0.3%). Crude $oil was stronger (2.7%) and $Gold finished marginally lower (-0.1%). $BTC-USD gained 5.8% this week after last week’s decline.

Earnings

Notable earnings included $LULU which reported a rise in comp sales of 21% but guided lower on EPS for FY21, and $MU which beat on both the top and the bottom line and guided higher: I think $LULU is too expensive here whereas I like $MU which seems grossly undervalued and has a forward PE of 8.6 which is very low for a company that is still growing at 18% per year.

All of our stocks have reported Q4 earnings. The Q1 2021 earnings season will commence in two weeks’ time.

Dividends

Our Danish stocks paid their annual dividends earlier this year. Italian stocks traditionally pay an annual dividend in late May. US stocks distribute quarterly dividends.

Portfolio Performance

Our portfolio gained 1.5% this week whereas the weighted average of the relevant market indices finished 1.4% higher, corresponding to a 0.1% market beat.

This week’s portfolio winners were $ADSK and $UMC with a 5.5% and a 4.9% gain, respectively. Some of the tech stocks which gave up gains in February and March seem to be waking up again. The semiconductor sector is still on fire as the industry struggles to keep up with demand.

Our Responsible Investor portfolio is now up 31.6% (32.6% including dividends) in 44 weeks and is beating the market by 3.4% over the same period. We are about 62% in stocks & ETFs and 38% in cash.

The table below summarises the portfolio performance since inception.

Responsible Investor Portfolio Weekly Update, March 27th, 2021 | $TCEHY $NEM $BK $SYF $CLIX $GRUB $PCG $LVMUY $LRLCY $STLA $IMPJY $TERRF $DSV.CO $DANSKE.CO $BRK $UMC $JD $ADSK $GMAB $ORSTED.CO $NIO $CMG $RH $RBLX $AA $VIAV $MSFT $TRYG.CO $WMT

The Big Picture

The 10-year treasuries experienced a nominal decline this week which may signify a stabilisation after the sharp ascent of recent weeks. No incremental news were published on the fiscal policy and the Fed announced the lifting on capital returns restrictions (dividend and buybacks) from Q3.

The 3 trillion dollar infrastructure plan was announced by Biden on Wednesday although more information is expected next week. This stimulus package may offer great investment opportunities in the construction industry over the coming months.

Vaccine rollout optimism continues in the US although the daily vaccinations are unchanged at 2.5 million doses. Credit card data are already picking up more sales traffic as the re-opening play continues. The situation is more controversial in Europe where lockdowns persist, albeit inconsistently across the various countries, and vaccinations are still affected by pharma companies not being able to meet demand or deliver to the agreements.

Next week’s focus will be on the March US jobs report.

Market Performance

The stock market indices were mixed this week: in the US the Dow gained 1.4%, while the Nasdaq fell for the second week (-0.6%) and the S&P500 finished 1.6% higher. In Europe, the Stoxx and the Italian index rose by 0.8%. The Danish OMX20 finished flat. The US Dollar continues to gain over the Euro (0.8%). Crude $oil finished lower (-5%) despite the Suez canal blockage and so did $Gold (-0.4%). $BTC-USD experienced another decline this week (-5.6%).

Earnings

Three of our stocks reported their Q4 earnings last week. $TCEHY reported an earnings and a revenue beat but is believed to be the next target of Chinese regulators which might trigger more weakness after last month’s decline.

$WBD.MI announced their 2020 results and their intention of completing the purchase of Astaldi. Their better-than-expected debt and dividend increase surprised and pushed the stock price 6% higher on Monday.

$TRN.MI presented their 2020 consolidated results on Wednesday. Italy’s TSO beat on both the top and the bottom line and confirmed its 2021 guidance.

Notable earnings included $ADBE which reported record quarterly sales (+27%) and EPS up 38%, and high-end home improvement company $RH which smashed earnings expectations and is poised for more growth despite having already gained 430% over the last year.

All of our stocks have reported Q4 earnings now. The Q1 2021 earnings season will commence in three weeks’ time.

Dividends

Our Danish stock paid their annual dividends earlier this year. Italian stocks traditionally pay an annual dividend in late May. US stocks distribute quarterly dividends.

Portfolio Performance

Our portfolio gained 1.6% this week whereas the weighted average of the relevant market indices finished 0.9% higher, corresponding to a 0.7% market beat.

This week’s winner was $UMC with a 7.3% gain thanks to renewed strength in the semiconductor sector. Our energy stocks also finished markedly higher and so did the two Italian positions which reported Q4 earnings.

Our Responsible Investor portfolio is now up 30.1% (31.1% including dividends) in 43 weeks and is beating the market by 3.3% over the same period. We are about 60% in stocks & ETFs and 40% in cash.

The table below summarises the portfolio performance since inception.

Responsible Investor Portfolio Weekly Update, March 20th, 2021 | $TCEHY $NEM $BK $SYF $CLIX $GRUB $PCG $LVMUY $LRLCY $STLA $IMPJY $TERRF $DSV.CO $DANSKE.CO $BRK $UMC $JD $ADSK $GMAB $ORSTED.CO $NIO $CMG $ARES $RBLX $AA $VIAV $MSFT $TRYG.CO $WMT

The Big Picture

The sell-off in the 10-year treasuries continues as yields rose by ten basis points to 1.72% this week. The FOMC meeting minutes indicate that there is no short term intention of stopping the economy from running hotter. Many consider the bond market boring however understanding its behaviour is key as it is much larger than the equity market and a sell-off in the former often offers opportunities in the latter. It is however important to select the right stocks in a rising interest environment. The rotation from growth and tech stocks to value stocks, especially small and mid caps, was reaffirmed this week.

The general optimism is still intact and standing on the well-established tripod of stimulus, positive Covid-19 data and strong earnings. There is a growing consensus between analysts on how the 1400$ stimulus checks will be spent: the re-opening trade manifests itself in strong bookings for holiday travel and the rise in airline and hotel stock prices. Meanwhile the US reached the 118 million doses mark this week. The news of a tax hike, both for the corporate world and the wealthy did not impact negatively on the sentiment and there is much anticipation for next Thursday’s press conference at which president Biden is expected to reveal more information on the infrastructure stimulus package.

Market Performance

The stock market indices were mixed this week: in the US the Dow fell by 0.5%, followed by the Nasdaq (-0.8%) and the S&P500 (-0.8%). In Europe, the Stoxx rose by a nominal 0.1% while the Italian index gained 0.4%. The Danish OMX20 finished the week 0.4% higher. The US Dollar gained 0.4% relative to the Euro. Crude $oil was markedly lower (-5%) while $Gold gained 1.1%. $BTC-USD was on a rollercoaster this week and ended with a 1.2% decline.

Earnings

None of our stocks reported their Q4 earnings last week.

Notable earnings included $ACN who beats on earnings and revenue and guided higher, $NIKE who marginally missed on earnings but beat on earnings, and $FDX who beat on both the top and the bottom line by a significant margin relative to consensus estimates.

$WBD.MI, $TRN.MI and $TCEHY will be the last three stocks in our portfolio reporting earnings this week.

Dividends

$NEM paid its quarterly dividend this week, while $DSV.CO and $DANSKE.CO paid their annual dividend. Italian stocks traditionally pay an annual dividend in late May. US stocks distribute quarterly dividends.

Portfolio Performance

Our portfolio lost 0.4% this week whereas the weighted average of the relevant market indices finished 0.2% lower.

This week’s winner was $NEM with a 5% gain supported by the recent strength in gold.

Our Responsible Investor portfolio is now up 28.5% (29.5% including dividends) in 42 weeks and is beating the market by 2.7% over the same period. We are about 60% in stocks & ETFs and 40% in cash. On my watchlist this week I have $WMT, $MSFT, $AMBU-B.CO, $ARES and $AA.

The table below summarises the portfolio performance since inception.