Responsible Investor Portfolio Weekly Update, March 20th, 2021 | $TCEHY $NEM $BK $SYF $CLIX $GRUB $PCG $LVMUY $LRLCY $STLA $IMPJY $TERRF $DSV.CO $DANSKE.CO $BRK $UMC $JD $ADSK $GMAB $ORSTED.CO $NIO $CMG $ARES $RBLX $AA $VIAV $MSFT $TRYG.CO $WMT

The Big Picture

The sell-off in the 10-year treasuries continues as yields rose by ten basis points to 1.72% this week. The FOMC meeting minutes indicate that there is no short term intention of stopping the economy from running hotter. Many consider the bond market boring however understanding its behaviour is key as it is much larger than the equity market and a sell-off in the former often offers opportunities in the latter. It is however important to select the right stocks in a rising interest environment. The rotation from growth and tech stocks to value stocks, especially small and mid caps, was reaffirmed this week.

The general optimism is still intact and standing on the well-established tripod of stimulus, positive Covid-19 data and strong earnings. There is a growing consensus between analysts on how the 1400$ stimulus checks will be spent: the re-opening trade manifests itself in strong bookings for holiday travel and the rise in airline and hotel stock prices. Meanwhile the US reached the 118 million doses mark this week. The news of a tax hike, both for the corporate world and the wealthy did not impact negatively on the sentiment and there is much anticipation for next Thursday’s press conference at which president Biden is expected to reveal more information on the infrastructure stimulus package.

Market Performance

The stock market indices were mixed this week: in the US the Dow fell by 0.5%, followed by the Nasdaq (-0.8%) and the S&P500 (-0.8%). In Europe, the Stoxx rose by a nominal 0.1% while the Italian index gained 0.4%. The Danish OMX20 finished the week 0.4% higher. The US Dollar gained 0.4% relative to the Euro. Crude $oil was markedly lower (-5%) while $Gold gained 1.1%. $BTC-USD was on a rollercoaster this week and ended with a 1.2% decline.

Earnings

None of our stocks reported their Q4 earnings last week.

Notable earnings included $ACN who beats on earnings and revenue and guided higher, $NIKE who marginally missed on earnings but beat on earnings, and $FDX who beat on both the top and the bottom line by a significant margin relative to consensus estimates.

$WBD.MI, $TRN.MI and $TCEHY will be the last three stocks in our portfolio reporting earnings this week.

Dividends

$NEM paid its quarterly dividend this week, while $DSV.CO and $DANSKE.CO paid their annual dividend. Italian stocks traditionally pay an annual dividend in late May. US stocks distribute quarterly dividends.

Portfolio Performance

Our portfolio lost 0.4% this week whereas the weighted average of the relevant market indices finished 0.2% lower.

This week’s winner was $NEM with a 5% gain supported by the recent strength in gold.

Our Responsible Investor portfolio is now up 28.5% (29.5% including dividends) in 42 weeks and is beating the market by 2.7% over the same period. We are about 60% in stocks & ETFs and 40% in cash. On my watchlist this week I have $WMT, $MSFT, $AMBU-B.CO, $ARES and $AA.

The table below summarises the portfolio performance since inception.

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Responsible Investor Portfolio Weekly Update, March 13th, 2021 | $TCEHY $NEM $BK $SYF $CLIX $GRUB $PCG $LVMUY $LRLCY $STLA $IMPJY $TERRF $DSV.CO $DANSKE.CO $BRK $UMC $JD $ADSK $GMAB $ORSTED.CO $NIO $CMG $SKLZ $RBLX $ABNB $VIAV $MSFT $TRYG.CO $WMT

The Big Picture

The US stock markets had a very strong week as the US treasuries show signs of stabilisation around the 1.6% mark and the sell-off in growth stocks appears overdone. The inflows in equities reached 51 billion $ this week due matching outflows in bonds as inflation expectations continue to rise. Jobless claims beat estimates this week and the US unemployment rate fell to 8.2%.

Covid-19 data in the US continue to be positive and the vaccine rollout numbers are very strong: president Biden has announced that all adult Americans are expected to be vaccinated by May 1st and the next July 4th is being labelled as Independence Day from the virus. $NVAX announced good efficacy on both the main and UK variant strains of the virus while some European countries have suspended the use of the $AZN vaccine, which is not approved in the US, following allegedly connected blood clot cases.

Market Performance

The stock market indices were all markedly higher this week: in the US the Dow led with a 4.1% gain, followed by the Nasdaq (3.1%) and the S&P500 (2.6%). In Europe, the Stoxx gained 3.5% while the Italian index rose +5.0%. The Danish OMX20 reversed the negative trend finished the week with a strong gain (5.1%). The US Dollar finished lost 0.3% relative to the Euro. Crude $oil was flat while $Gold gained 1.3%. $BTC-USD continued its rise by adding 11% to its price.

Earnings

$JD reported Q4 earnings before market open on Thursday and beat on both revenue and EPS. The stock gained 6% on the news but was then caught into the Friday sell-off which affected various Chinese stocks fined by antitrust regulators.

$RBLX IPO was a big success this week however the number of IPOs is starting to fade possibly due to signs of unjustified froth. $DOCU shares slipped 2.5% after hours despite reporting Q4 beats and upside sales forecasts that suggest the digital transformation trends will continue after the pandemic.

None of our stock will report their Q4 earnings next week, the last three in our portfolio will do so on week commencing the 22nd of March.

Dividends

$NEM will pay its quarterly dividend on March 18th. $DSV.CO and $DANSKE.CO also go ex-dividend this week. Italian stocks traditionally pay an annual dividend in late May. US stocks distribute quarterly dividends.

Portfolio Performance

Our portfolio gained 4.0% this week whereas the weighted average of the relevant market indices finished 3.7% higher corresponding to a 0.3% market beat.

We made a new purchase this week: Denmark-headquartered utility company $ORSTED.CO. This is a long term green energy investment. The stock has experienced a 2 month period of weakness falling from 1400 kr to about 900kr and recently rebounded from the 161.8% fib which offered a good opportunity to buy.

This week’s winner was $STLA.MI with a 12.9% gain. All of our European stocks continue to show signs of strength.

Our Responsible Investor portfolio is now up 22.8% (23.7% including dividends) in 41 weeks. We are about 60% in stocks & ETFs and 40% in cash. On my watchlist this week I have $WMT, $MSFT, $AMBU-B.CO, $ABNB and $LRN.

The table below summarises the portfolio performance since inception.

Responsible Investor Portfolio Weekly Update, March 6th, 2021 | $TCEHY $NEM $BK $SYF $CLIX $GRUB $PCG $LVMUY $LRLCY $STLA $IMPJY $TERRF $DSV.CO $DANSKE.CO $BRK $UMC $JD $ADSK $GMAB $NIO $CMG $SKLZ $AVGO $ABNB $VIAV $MSFT $TRYG.CO $WMT

The Big Picture

Despite the intra-day rally on Friday, the Nasdaq finished 2% lower this week as the technology sector was affected by a general sell-off in favour of value stocks. The energy sector was this week’s winner following the Opec + meeting which basically left production cuts unchanged and sustained the rally in crude oil. Only time will tell if the rotation will continue. Now more than ever is important to have a well diversified portfolio.

The 10-year treasuries reached 1.56% this week: the interest rates are up 60 basis points over the last 13 weeks. During an interview with the WSP on Thursday, chair Powell did not appear concerned with the rising interest rates given the general state of the economy – the markets did not react well to this analysis.

The 1.9 trillion $ stimulus is expected to be approved by the Senate this weekend ahead of President Biden signing it into bill next week. Attention will soon shift to the infrastructure package. The jobs reports exceeded expectations with most of new employments coming from the re-opening of bars, cafes and restaurants in the US. The unemployment rate has reached the lowest percentage since the pandemic begun.

On the covid front the positive vaccine data are balanced with the flattening of the infections, hospitalisations and deaths curves which may be due to factors such as relaxed behaviours and the impact of more contagious variants. In Europe the infection rates are on the rise again, paving the way to a possible third wave.

Market Performance

The stock market indices were mixed this week: in the US the Nasdaq fell 2.1%, whereas the S&P500 gained 0.8% and the Dow rose 1.8%. In Europe, the Stoxx gained 0.9% while the Italian index rose +0.5%. The Danish OMX20 fell for the third consecutive week (-3.9%). The US Dollar finished 1.4% stronger relative to the Euro. Crude $oil gained 9.9% while $Gold lost 2.2%. $BTC-USD finished 8.5% higher.

Earnings

Italy-based telecom company INW.MI reported Q4 earnings this week. The company announced an increase of EBITDA by 82% and confirmed guidance as outlook remains positive. The stock’s recent weakness is probably due to portfolio rotation into cyclical stock and to a rising interest environment, not to its fundamentals which remain intact.

Notable earnings this week included $ZM, who crushed expectations and posted a 370% revenue growth yoy, and $AVGO who beat both on earnings and revenue and confirmed their annual dividend at 3.24% which is significant given the companies growth rate.

Returning to our portfolio, next week $JD will report their Q4 earnings.

Dividends

Most Danish companies go ex-dividend in March, while Italian stocks traditionally pay an annual dividend in late May and US stocks distribute quarterly dividends.

Portfolio Performance

Our portfolio fell 0.3% this week whereas the weighted average of the relevant market indices finished 0.2 higher.

The tech stocks in our portfolio continued to be under pressure due to the market rotation but the rise of the financial and real economy stocks balanced the weekly performance.

Our Responsible Investor portfolio is now up 19.6% (20.6% including dividends) in 10 months. We are about 55% in stocks & ETFs and 45% in cash. On my watchlist this week I have $WMT, $MSFT, $AMBU-B.CO, $ABNB and $AVGO.

The table below summarises the portfolio performance since inception.

Responsible Investor Portfolio Weekly Update, February 27th, 2021 | $TCEHY $NEM $BK $SYF $CLIX $GRUB $PCG $LVMUY $LRLCY $STLA $IMPJY $TERRF $DSV.CO $DANSKE.CO $BRK $UMC $JD $ADSK $GMAB $NIO $CMG $SQ $AVGO $ABNB $VIAV $MSFT $TRYG.CO $WMT

The Big Picture

The 10-year treasuries reached 1.5% this week, a level not seen since prior to the pandemic: the rising bond yields are believed to have caused the general sell off on the stock market, particularly for tech companies, even though the Nasdaq is still up more than 3% year to date. Consumer discretionary also lagged, while financials were flat, and energy came out as the best sector.

The 1.9 trillion $ stimulus was approved by the House yesterday but the Senate is likely to strip the 15$ minimum wage off the package. The next stimulus deal on the agenda is the infrastructure package which has bipartisan support except for the quantum.

Vaccine data keeps improving with the trendline of fewer infections, hospitalisations and deaths continuing. The vaccine rollout has now surpassed the 50 million doses mark which corresponds to half of the doses Biden promised to achieve in the first 100 days of office.

Market Performance

All indices finished lower this week: in the US the Nasdaq led with a 4.9% loss, followed by the S&P500 (-2.5%) and the Dow (-1.8%). In Europe, the Stoxx lost 2.4% while the Italian index retraced -1.2%. The Danish OMX20 fell 4.2%. The US Dollar was unchanged relative to the Euro. Crude $oil gained 7% and $Gold finished flat. $BTC-USD traded lower at 48k$ from the 57k$ level achieved last weekend.

Earnings

Four stocks of our portfolio reported Q4 earnings this week.

$BRK-B published their 2020 annual report on Wednesday and their Q4 earnings today (Saturday). In the annual letter to his shareholders Warren Buffett focused on operating margin, intrinsic value, and buy-backs. The company hasn’t made sizeable acquisitions in 2020 and has recently sold some $AAPL shares and increased the stake in value companies. The stock was marginally down this week.

$ADSK beat on both the top and the bottom line on Thursday but guided lower which led to a sharp decline, partly caused by the general weakness in the technology sector. The strong Q4 earnings were offset by revenue and EPS expectations below consensus.

$PCG reported a marginal earnings beat on Thursday, though revenue fell short. The company reaffirmed its 2021 guidance. The market did not react well and the stock fell by 9% and underperformed compared to the energy sector stocks.

$GMAB.CO reported Q4 earnings on Tuesday, with a revenue beat thanks to an 88% increase year on year. The Danish biotech company also reported operating profit above expectations and initiated a share buy-back programme.

Notable earnings this week included $NVDA, who smashed expectations, and $ABNB who missed on earnings but beat on revenue and has the prospect of restrictions lift which are expected to lead to a significant travel rebound..

Returning to our portfolio, next week $INW.MI will report their Q4 earnings.

Dividends

Most Danish companies go ex-dividend in March, while Italian stocks traditionally pay an annual dividend in late May and US stocks distribute quarterly dividends.

Portfolio Performance

Our portfolio fell 4.3% this week whereas the weighted average of the relevant market indices finished 2.5 lower.

We exited our position in $RWAY.MI on Monday as the stock showed more signs of weakness after the previous week’s sell-off. Technically, the stock has also fallen below the 38.2 fib which could have led to further downward action. Our tech stocks were hit by the sector weakness but their fundamentals remain intact. The only positive performance was that of $SYF which finished 1.6% higher and is now up 67% since we bought it.

Our Responsible Investor portfolio is now up 19.2% (20.2% including dividends) in 39 weeks. We raised same cash this week and are about 55% in stocks & ETFs and 45% in cash. On my watchlist this week I have $WMT, $MSFT, $AMBU-B.CO, $ABNB and $SQ.

The table below summarises the portfolio performance since inception.

Responsible Investor Portfolio Weekly Update, February 20th, 2021 | $TCEHY $NEM $BK $SYF $CLIX $GRUB $PCG $LVMUY $LRLCY $STLA $IMPJY $TERRF $DSV.CO $DANSKE.CO $BRK $UMC $JD $ADSK $GMAB $NIO $CMG $OCDGF $AVGO $ABNB $VIAV $MSFT $TRYG.CO $ADBE

The Big Picture

The markets were down this week as the rising 10-year treasuries spooked investors who are concerned that if the uptrend continues it might induce a pull back on the stock market. The counter-argument is that raising interest rates are caused by inflation which would be indicative of a solid economy. The covid-19 stimulus package is expected in March. Q4 earnings have mostly beat expectations and a few additional ones are due to be published over the next couple of weeks.

Vaccine news were mixed: on the negative news front, a US study showed that the $PFE vaccine is less effective on the south-African variant; on the flipside, data from Israel suggests that the effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine is not impaired by lengthening the time between two doses which would increase the number of people who could get the first jab.

Market Performance

Most indices finished lower this week: in the US the Nasdaq led with a 1.6% loss, followed by the S&P500 (-0.9%) while the Dow was marginally higher (+0.1%). The Stoxx gained a meager 0.2% while the Italian index retraced -1.2%. The Danish OMX20 fell 1.1%. The US Dollar was unchanged relative to the Euro. Crude $oil retraced 0.5% and $Gold finished 2.2% lower. $BTC-USD gained 12% as the cryptocurrency flies past the 50k$ mark.

Earnings

$NEM reported a Q4 earnings beat this week as gold price rose and despite a reduction in gold production in its mines. The EPS more than doubled from the same quarter in the prior year with in-line income; the company guided higher on the basis of projected output and hiked the dividend from 0.4$/share to 0.55$/share which corresponds to a 3.81% forward yield.

$BRK-B latest 13F filing revealed the most recent changes in stake in the company positions including important divestments (eg $PFE and $JPM) and new holdings (eg $VZ and $CVX).

Notable earnings this week included $DE who crushed expectations and gained 9.9% on the news and $WMT who underwhelmed despite a good quarter and a stable outlook and slid 6.6%.

Returning to our portfolio, next week $PCG, $ADSK, $GMAB.CO and $BRK-B will report their Q4 earnings.

Dividends

$SYF paid its quarterly dividend on February 16th. Most Danish companies go ex-dividend in March, while Italian stocks traditionally pay an annual dividend in late May and US stocks distribute quarterly dividends.

Portfolio Performance

Our portfolio retraced 0.6% this week whereas the weighted average of the relevant market indices finished 0.7% lower which means that we beat the market by 0.1%.

Among this week’s winner we had $JD (+6.8%) and $DANSKE.CO (+3.1%). Two of our Italian stocks, $RWAY.MI and $INW.MI finished 6% lower, whereas $WBD.MI gained 3.4%.

Our Responsible Investor portfolio is now up 23.5% (24.4% including dividends) in 38 weeks. We are about 60% in stocks & ETFs and 40% in cash. On my watchlist this week I have $NIO, $CMG, $WMT, $MSFT, $AMBU-B.CO and $OCDO.L.

The table below summarises the portfolio performance since inception.

Responsible Investor Portfolio Weekly Update, February 13th, 2021 | $TCEHY $NEM $BK $SYF $CLIX $GRUB $PCG $LVMUY $LRLCY $STLA $IMPJY $TERRF $DSV.CO $DANSKE.CO $BRK $UMC $JD $ADSK $GMAB $NIO $CMG $OCDGF $AVGO $ABNB $VIAV $MSFT $TRYG.CO $ADBE

The Big Picture

It was a rather uneventful week with most indices finishing with moderate gains. After months of headlines dominated by the US presidential election, Brexit and rising Covid-19 numbers, the narrative seems to lack negative arguments and the bulls thrive. Record high debt and prolonged borrowing does not appear to be of concern for the markets which find their support on the tripod consisting of earnings beats, stimulus bill and positive vaccine news. The employment numbers published this week were mostly in-line and almost ignored, however next week the calendar features data which could affect the markets.

Market Performance

All indices finished higher this week: in the US the Nasdaq led with a 1.7% gain, followed by the S&P500 (+1.5%) and the Dow (+1.0%). The Stoxx gained 1.1% and the Italian index keeps ascending (+1.4%) as Mario Draghi’s new government is sworn in today. The Danish OMX20 finished 1.8% higher. The US Dollar gained 0.6% on the Euro. Crude oil is now back to pre-Covid levels and $Gold finished 0.8% higher. $BTC-USD shot to the upside by 23% following the controversial announcement by Elon Musk about $TSLA investing 1.5 billion USD in the cryptocurrency.

Earnings

Three stocks of our portfolio reported earning this week.

$DSV.CO reported Q4 earnings on February 12th with a revenue beat and in-line EBIT. The company declared a 4 DKK dividend for 2020 which corresponds to 0.35% yield at today’s price level. The stock gained 10.4% this week due to these results and the positive outlook.

$OR.PA announced the 2020 results this week. The company reported revenues of 28 billion € and operating profit of 18.6%. The e-commerce revenues increased by 62% and the annual dividend has been set at 4€ per share. The outlook remains positive with a projected growth of 4.8% in Q1 2021 despite market volatility and uncertainty.

$ELC.MI reported the Q4 earnings and the preliminary 2020 results. While the company has seen a decline of sales with respect to the previous year, the Q4 revenue was up 15% relative to Q3 driven by its cooking segment. The stock was up 12.1% this week and 35% overall since we bought it.

Notable earnings this week included $DIS who beat expectations and announced more than 90 million Disney+ subscribers, a threshold that only 9 months ago they were expecting to reach no sooner than in 2023.

Returning to our portfolio, $NEM will report their Q4 earnings next week.

Dividends

$SYF went ex-dividend last week, the quarterly dividend is payable on February 16th. The quarterly dividend for $BK was paid on Friday. Most Danish companies go ex-dividend in March, while Italian stocks traditionally pay a dividend in late May and US stocks distribute quarterly dividends.

Portfolio Performance

Our portfolio gained 3.2% this week whereas the weighted average of the relevant market indices finished 1.4% higher which means that we beat the market by 1.8%.

$WBD.MI gained more than 10% supported by the prospect of infrastructure investment in Italy thanks to the the EU Recovery Fund. $UMC had another great week with a 12% gain – the stock is up 77% in less than 4 months.

Our Responsible Investor portfolio is now up 24.0% (24.9% including dividends) in 37 weeks. We are about 61% in stocks & ETFs and 39% in cash. On my watchlist this week I have $NIO, $CMG, $VIAV, $MSFT, $AMBU-B.CO and $OCDO.L.

The table below summarises the portfolio performance since inception.