Responsible Investor Portfolio Weekly Update, February 20th, 2021 | $TCEHY $NEM $BK $SYF $CLIX $GRUB $PCG $LVMUY $LRLCY $STLA $IMPJY $TERRF $DSV.CO $DANSKE.CO $BRK $UMC $JD $ADSK $GMAB $NIO $CMG $OCDGF $AVGO $ABNB $VIAV $MSFT $TRYG.CO $ADBE

The Big Picture

The markets were down this week as the rising 10-year treasuries spooked investors who are concerned that if the uptrend continues it might induce a pull back on the stock market. The counter-argument is that raising interest rates are caused by inflation which would be indicative of a solid economy. The covid-19 stimulus package is expected in March. Q4 earnings have mostly beat expectations and a few additional ones are due to be published over the next couple of weeks.

Vaccine news were mixed: on the negative news front, a US study showed that the $PFE vaccine is less effective on the south-African variant; on the flipside, data from Israel suggests that the effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine is not impaired by lengthening the time between two doses which would increase the number of people who could get the first jab.

Market Performance

Most indices finished lower this week: in the US the Nasdaq led with a 1.6% loss, followed by the S&P500 (-0.9%) while the Dow was marginally higher (+0.1%). The Stoxx gained a meager 0.2% while the Italian index retraced -1.2%. The Danish OMX20 fell 1.1%. The US Dollar was unchanged relative to the Euro. Crude $oil retraced 0.5% and $Gold finished 2.2% lower. $BTC-USD gained 12% as the cryptocurrency flies past the 50k$ mark.

Earnings

$NEM reported a Q4 earnings beat this week as gold price rose and despite a reduction in gold production in its mines. The EPS more than doubled from the same quarter in the prior year with in-line income; the company guided higher on the basis of projected output and hiked the dividend from 0.4$/share to 0.55$/share which corresponds to a 3.81% forward yield.

$BRK-B latest 13F filing revealed the most recent changes in stake in the company positions including important divestments (eg $PFE and $JPM) and new holdings (eg $VZ and $CVX).

Notable earnings this week included $DE who crushed expectations and gained 9.9% on the news and $WMT who underwhelmed despite a good quarter and a stable outlook and slid 6.6%.

Returning to our portfolio, next week $PCG, $ADSK, $GMAB.CO and $BRK-B will report their Q4 earnings.

Dividends

$SYF paid its quarterly dividend on February 16th. Most Danish companies go ex-dividend in March, while Italian stocks traditionally pay an annual dividend in late May and US stocks distribute quarterly dividends.

Portfolio Performance

Our portfolio retraced 0.6% this week whereas the weighted average of the relevant market indices finished 0.7% lower which means that we beat the market by 0.1%.

Among this week’s winner we had $JD (+6.8%) and $DANSKE.CO (+3.1%). Two of our Italian stocks, $RWAY.MI and $INW.MI finished 6% lower, whereas $WBD.MI gained 3.4%.

Our Responsible Investor portfolio is now up 23.5% (24.4% including dividends) in 38 weeks. We are about 60% in stocks & ETFs and 40% in cash. On my watchlist this week I have $NIO, $CMG, $WMT, $MSFT, $AMBU-B.CO and $OCDO.L.

The table below summarises the portfolio performance since inception.

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Responsible Investor Portfolio Weekly Update, February 13th, 2021 | $TCEHY $NEM $BK $SYF $CLIX $GRUB $PCG $LVMUY $LRLCY $STLA $IMPJY $TERRF $DSV.CO $DANSKE.CO $BRK $UMC $JD $ADSK $GMAB $NIO $CMG $OCDGF $AVGO $ABNB $VIAV $MSFT $TRYG.CO $ADBE

The Big Picture

It was a rather uneventful week with most indices finishing with moderate gains. After months of headlines dominated by the US presidential election, Brexit and rising Covid-19 numbers, the narrative seems to lack negative arguments and the bulls thrive. Record high debt and prolonged borrowing does not appear to be of concern for the markets which find their support on the tripod consisting of earnings beats, stimulus bill and positive vaccine news. The employment numbers published this week were mostly in-line and almost ignored, however next week the calendar features data which could affect the markets.

Market Performance

All indices finished higher this week: in the US the Nasdaq led with a 1.7% gain, followed by the S&P500 (+1.5%) and the Dow (+1.0%). The Stoxx gained 1.1% and the Italian index keeps ascending (+1.4%) as Mario Draghi’s new government is sworn in today. The Danish OMX20 finished 1.8% higher. The US Dollar gained 0.6% on the Euro. Crude oil is now back to pre-Covid levels and $Gold finished 0.8% higher. $BTC-USD shot to the upside by 23% following the controversial announcement by Elon Musk about $TSLA investing 1.5 billion USD in the cryptocurrency.

Earnings

Three stocks of our portfolio reported earning this week.

$DSV.CO reported Q4 earnings on February 12th with a revenue beat and in-line EBIT. The company declared a 4 DKK dividend for 2020 which corresponds to 0.35% yield at today’s price level. The stock gained 10.4% this week due to these results and the positive outlook.

$OR.PA announced the 2020 results this week. The company reported revenues of 28 billion € and operating profit of 18.6%. The e-commerce revenues increased by 62% and the annual dividend has been set at 4€ per share. The outlook remains positive with a projected growth of 4.8% in Q1 2021 despite market volatility and uncertainty.

$ELC.MI reported the Q4 earnings and the preliminary 2020 results. While the company has seen a decline of sales with respect to the previous year, the Q4 revenue was up 15% relative to Q3 driven by its cooking segment. The stock was up 12.1% this week and 35% overall since we bought it.

Notable earnings this week included $DIS who beat expectations and announced more than 90 million Disney+ subscribers, a threshold that only 9 months ago they were expecting to reach no sooner than in 2023.

Returning to our portfolio, $NEM will report their Q4 earnings next week.

Dividends

$SYF went ex-dividend last week, the quarterly dividend is payable on February 16th. The quarterly dividend for $BK was paid on Friday. Most Danish companies go ex-dividend in March, while Italian stocks traditionally pay a dividend in late May and US stocks distribute quarterly dividends.

Portfolio Performance

Our portfolio gained 3.2% this week whereas the weighted average of the relevant market indices finished 1.4% higher which means that we beat the market by 1.8%.

$WBD.MI gained more than 10% supported by the prospect of infrastructure investment in Italy thanks to the the EU Recovery Fund. $UMC had another great week with a 12% gain – the stock is up 77% in less than 4 months.

Our Responsible Investor portfolio is now up 24.0% (24.9% including dividends) in 37 weeks. We are about 61% in stocks & ETFs and 39% in cash. On my watchlist this week I have $NIO, $CMG, $VIAV, $MSFT, $AMBU-B.CO and $OCDO.L.

The table below summarises the portfolio performance since inception.

Responsible Investor Portfolio Weekly Update, February 6th, 2021 | $TCEHY $NEM $BK $SYF $CLIX $GRUB $PCG $LVMUY $LRLCY $STLA $IMPJY $TERRF $DSV.CO $DANSKE.CO $BRK $UMC $JD $ADSK $GMAB $DVA $CMG $OCDGF $AVGO $ABNB $VIAV $MSFT $TRYG.CO $ADBE

The Big Picture

Last week’s drop already seems like a distant memory as the markets field significant gains this week with some indices reaching new all time highs. There is an inherent inconsistency between the stocks, the dollar and the treasuries all going up at the same time, however: at some point something has got to give. Positive Q4 earnings keep pouring in and negotiations for the stimulus bill continue. On the vaccine front, the $JNJ vaccine continues to attract attention and reports postulate that preventative measures as well as vaccinations start to reduce infection rates and hospitalisations.

Market Performance

All indices finished higher this week: in the US the Nasdaq led with a 6.0% gain, followed by the S&P500 (+4.7%) and the Dow (+3.9%). The Stoxx gained 3.4% and the Italian index gapped 7.0% higher as Mario Draghi accepted the task to form a new government. The Danish OMX20 finished 3.9% higher. The US Dollar gained 0.7% on the Euro. Crude oil was markedly higher while $Gold finished 1.6% lower. $BTC-USD gained more than 10% continuing its recovery from the sharp January fall.

Earnings

One of our stocks reported Q4 earnings this week. $DANSKE.CO presented its 2020 annual report on Thursday and the results were in-line. The Danish bank continues on its journey to increase its profitability after the money laundering scandal that hit it a few years ago. The stock was up 6.7% this week.

Notable earnings this week included $AMZN and $GOOG who beat on both the top and the bottom line by a wide margin. The e-commerce and cloud service giant also announced Jeff Bezos stepping down as CEO and passing the baton to the executive in charge of AWS – Amazon’s profit machine.

Next week two of our stocks will report their earnings: $DSV.CO and $OR.PA.

Dividends

$BK went ex-dividend last week, the quarterly dividend is payable on February 12th. Most Danish companies go ex-dividend in March, while Italian stocks traditionally pay a dividend in late May and US stocks distribute quarterly dividends.

Portfolio Performance

Our portfolio gained 5.9% this week whereas the weighted average of the relevant market indices finished 4.7% higher which means that we beat the market by 1.2%.

$WBD.MI jumped 17.6% and is now in the black for the first time since we purchased it. $ADSK gained 10.2% after three consecutive weeks of decline. $SYF rose 10.8% thereby erasing the loss from the previous week.

Our Responsible Investor portfolio is now up 20.6% (21.5% including dividends) in 9 months. We are about 60% in stocks & ETFs and 40% in cash. On my watchlist this week I have $DVA, $CMG, $VIAV, $MSFT, $AMBU-B.CO and $OCDO.L.

The table below summarises the portfolio performance since inception.

Responsible Investor Portfolio Weekly Update, January 30th, 2021 | $TCEHY $NEM $BK $SYF $CLIX $GRUB $PCG $LVMUY $LRLCY $STLA $IMPJY $TERRF $DSV.CO $DANSKE.CO $BRK $UMC $JD $ADSK $GMAB $DVA $CMG $OCDGF $AVGO $ABNB $VIAV $MSFT $TRYG.CO $ADBE

The Big Picture

While hundreds of earnings were published this week reporting better than expected earnings, the narrative was dominated by the retail-driven short squeeze of a number of heavily shorted stocks. The volatility that ensued resulted in two steep declines on Wednesday and Friday which sent the US stock markets more than 3% down. Some labelled this as a battle between generations or ‘classes’ of investors: to be honest it seems more like irresponsible investing and a failure of the stock market regulators to me.

Despite this decline, however, the bullish sentiment seems intact and supported by the ‘tripod’ consisting of positive earnings, vaccine optimism and the forthcoming stimulus bill. There were several positive vaccine news this week: $NVAX reported 89% efficacy in the UK trials and 60% in South Africa, the EMA approved the $AZN vaccine in Europe and $JNJ stated that their vaccine is 66% effective. This latter news initially underwhelmed but it is actually more positive than one would think at first look especially given the fact that it only requires a single shot.

Market Performance

All US indices were markedly down this week: in the US the Nasdaq led with a 3.5% decline, followed by the S&P500 and the Dow which both lost 3.3% of their value. The Stoxx fell 3.1% and the Italian index contained the loss to 2.3% as the political crisis sees a mildly positive optimism. The Danish OMX20 dropped 4.3%. The US Dollar gained 0.3% on the Euro. Crude oil was softer and $Gold finished 0.5% lower. $BTC-USD gained 3.3% after two consecutive weeks of sharp declines.

Earnings

Three of our stocks reported Q4 earnings this week. $MC.PA rose 1.3% on Wednesday after beating expectations with sales rising 18% year-on-year on a comparable basis.

$UMC missed on revenue despite an 8.2% yoy growth, while EPS rose to 0.16$ from 0.13$ in Q3. Their foundries are now at 99% capacity and the company guided in line. The stock sell off and underperformed relative to the Nasdaq this week: it is still up 59.4% since we initiated our position, however.

$SYF crushed earnings on Friday with Q4 EPS of 1.24$ vs consensus estimate of 0.85$ and improved from 0.52$ of Q3. Despite gaining in pre-market, the stock sell-off with the rest of the market that day which could provide an opportunity for accumulation in the near future.

Other notable earnings included $AAPL who beat expectations, and $MSFT whose cloud revenues grew 34% year on year. In the physical world, $CAT beat earnings despite a revenue fall.

Next week $DANSKE.CO will present its 2020 annual report.

Dividends

$BK went ex-dividend this week, the quarterly dividend is payable on February 12th. Most Danish companies go ex-dividend in March, while Italian stocks traditionally pay a dividend in late May and US stocks distribute quarterly dividends.

Portfolio Performance

Our portfolio fell 4.2% whereas the weighted average of the relevant market indices finished 3.1% lower.

Our Responsible Investor portfolio is now up 14.5% (15.5% including dividends) in 35 weeks. We are about 56% in stocks & ETFs and 44% in cash. On my watchlist this week I have $DVA, $CMG, $VIAV, $MSFT, $TRYG.CO and $OCDO.L.

The table below summarises the portfolio performance since inception.

Responsible Investor Portfolio Weekly Update, January 23rd, 2021 | $TCEHY $NEM $BK $SYF $CLIX $GRUB $PCG $LVMUY $LRLCY $STLA $IMPJY $TERRF $DSV.CO $DANSKE.CO $BRK $UMC $JD $ADSK $GMAB $DVA $CMG $KBH $OCDGF $AVGO $ABNB $VIAV $TRYG.CO $ADBE

The Big Picture

The 46th US President inauguration was an uplifting ceremony which made history on many levels. The next 100 days will be key to appreciate the direction this administration will take. In his first days in office Biden signed a flurry of executive orders to dismantle several policies which were set in place by his predecessor.

Meanwhile the US markets continued to rally, especially the Nasdaq, off the back of positive Q4 earnings news, vaccine optimism and the prospect of the next stimulus bill. Scratching the surface, however, one finds several counter-arguments to this “risk on” environment: paradoxically, a significant growth in earnings could undermine the monetary expansion; vaccine roll-out is being affected by various glitches in doses delivery; and the negotiations for the stimulus bill are unlikely to result in a smooth ride for the new administration.

Market Performance

All US indices were up this week: in the US the Nasdaq led with a whopping 4.2%, followed by the S&P500 (1.9%) and the Dow (0.6%). The Stoxx finished flat while the Italian index lost 1.3% as uncertainty continues to affect its political environment. The Danish OMX20 gained 1.3%. The US Dollar lost 0.2% on the Euro. Crude oil was softer while $Gold finished 0.8% higher. $BTC-USD had another horrible week and lost 9.7% after the fall of the previous week.

Earnings

$BK beat Q4 earnings but the market did not react well and the stock finished 8% lower. We are still up 13.3% since we purchased it and will take action should there be any further signs of weakness.

Other notable earnings included $NFLX who crushed estimates and exceeded 200M subscribers for the first time and lukewarm Q4 results from $INTC.

Next week two of our stocks will report earnings, $UMC and $SYF, as well as many other well know companies such as $MSFT, $AAPL and $FB.

Dividends

$BK goes ex-dividend next week. Most Danish companies go ex-dividend in March, while Italian stocks traditionally pay a dividend in late May and US stocks distribute quarterly dividends.

Portfolio Performance

Our portfolio was up 1.9% whereas the weighted average of the relevant market indices finished 0.7% higher, which means we have beaten the market this week (+1.2%).

$UMC jumped 17% this week and is now up 72% overall! $TCEHY was up 9.8% increasing the gain of the last 3 weeks to 24%. Our long e-commerce/short bricks and mortar ETF grew 6%. From this week we will start reporting $UG.PA under the new ticker $STLA.MI following the merger with FGA which resulted in the conversion of every Peugeout share into 1.742 shares of Stellantis: the European car maker had an excellent first week of trading finishing 5.3% higher.

Our Responsible Investor portfolio is now up 18.5% (19.4% including dividends) in 34 weeks. We are about 59% in stocks & ETFs and 41% in cash. On my watchlist this week I have $DVA, $CMG, $VIAV, $TRYG.CO and $OCDO.L.

The table below summarises the portfolio performance since inception.