Tag: Responsible Investor

Responsible Investor Portfolio Update, September 5th, 2020 | $TCEHY $NEM $BK $SYF $CLIX $GRUB $PCG $LVMUY $LRLCY $PEUGF $WBD.MI

At the beginning of the week the stock markets kept going higher as if there was no tomorrow but on Thursday they came to a screeching halt. More importantly, the Friday morning rally did not last long and the week ended with a second consecutive down day. I cannot even remember when we had two red days in a row last time !

While nobody knows what happens next, with the upcoming US presidential election and economies around the world still struggling to pick up, I cannot see governments stopping the support of the stock markets with more “propping” policies. Analysts are raising S&P500 quarterly earnings estimates for the first time since Q2 2018, Factset reports. Only time will tell and we will be quick in raising cash if the downtrend continues.

Despite the end of week selloff the Dow and the S&P500 managed to pull off a nominal increase of 0.24 and 0.16%, respectively, whereas the Nasdaq fell 1.6%. The European stock markets had a similar decline with the Stoxx down by 1.25%; the FTSEMIB retraced by 1.49% and the Copenhagen Nasdaq fell by 2.5%. The Danish stock market currently has a whopping P/E of 32.8 which is even higher than that of the S&P500 which stands at 30.5.

No changes to our portfolio this week. For the second week in a row our best performer was $SYF which is up 23.2% since we bought it and has now overtaken $GRUB. Car-maker UG.PA had a great week and was up 3.8%. Our other tech stock $TCEHY fell 4.7% but the fundamentals remain intact.

On my watchlist there are stocks like $VEEV, $QCOM and $GOOG. This recent selloff can present an opportunity for shopping at more reasonable prices.

The table below summarises the portfolio performance since inception.

If you don’t want to miss my alerts, please subscribe to Responsible Investor or follow me on Twitter. I also run an eToro portfolio which currently has 30+ positions and can be accessed via this link.

Responsible Investor Portfolio Update, August 29th, 2020 | $TCEHY $NEM $BK $SYF $CLIX $GRUB $PCG $LVMUY $LRLCY $PEUGF $ELC.MI $WBD.MI

Just when one might have started thinking that the FED was running out of ideas to sustain the growth in the stock market, Jay Powell announced an unprecedented change to the inflation policy from 2% as a goal to 2% on average as the target. Not that inflation has gone up during years of balance sheet expansion, including in the EU, but it does provide more room should it pick up and pass the 2% mark. That news depreciated the dollar even further relative to the euro.

In more recent news, Japan was hit by the sad news of their long-standing Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announcing to step down due to illness after 8 years of service and one year before the natural end of his term. This exerted pressure on the Japanese stock market as it can be seen from the drop the $EWJ ETF had on Thursday. It will be interesting to see whether his successor will continue to embrace the so-called “Abenomics” and maintain the stability Abe achieved by ending a streak of several predecessors who only lasted 1 year on average as PMs of Japan.

The US stock markets have had an impressive week with the three main indices all closing 2%+ higher. Europe had a good week as the Stoxx index moved 1.1% higher but the national stock markets performance varied: for example Italy was up 0.7% while Denmark was down 0.3%.

No changes to our portfolio this week. Our best performer was $SYF which gapped 7.8% higher, followed by one of our two banks stocks, $BK, which grew by 5.1%. $GRUB fell 4.4%, however that’s not concerning given how much it has run over the past weeks.

On my watchlist there are stocks like $WDAY, $QCOM and inverse ETFs such as $SQQQ.

The table below summarises the portfolio performance since inception.

2000828 RIP

If you don’t want to miss my alerts, please subscribe to Responsible Investor or follow me on Twitter. I also run an eToro portfolio which currently has 30+ positions and can be accessed via this link.

 

 

Responsible Investor Portfolio Update, August 22th, 2020 | $TCEHY $NEM $BK $SYF $CLIX $GRUB $PCG $LVMUY $LRLCY $PEUGF $ELC.MI $WBD.MI

This is a market of contrasts. On the one hand we have increasing Covid-19 numbers all over the world and particularly in Europe where infection cases are going back to April-May levels, and on the other several bullish signals, the most recent one to note being the existing house sales in the US which grew by 25% in July – a rate not seen since 2006.

In the meantime the candidacies of Joe Biden and of his prospective VP Kamala Harris have been formalised at the Democratic Convention and the US stock market did not have a negative reaction. In the past there used to be many articles about how a Democratic government would be unwelcome for corporate America whereas positions seems to be more open to a leadership alternative to Trump of late.

It was a mixed week for the stock market: the MSCI World was flat, Europe was down 1.8% (with Italy loosing 2.42% and the Nasdaq Copenhagen a meager 0.12%) and the US indices were up with the S&P500 growing by 0.7% and the Nasdaq by a whopping 2.7%, whereas the Dow ended the week flat. The Dollar recovered about 0.58% over the Euro.

We have made one purchase on the RI portfolio this week, a relatively new ETF which invests in e-commerce while shorting the bricks & mortar sector. It is basically a combination of two other ETFs I have watched (and still own in another portfolio), $IBUY and $EMTY, and goes by the ticker of $CLIX. Thanks to its long and short positions it adds a lot of alpha to a signle investment: it is up 87% YTD, widely outperforming all the US stock market indices.

Our $SQQQ position hit the SL price at the beginning of the week but I expect that it is more of an arrivederci for this hedge. $TCEHY gapped 7% higher and looks like a break-out is around the corner. With gold recovering most of last week’s losses, $NEM was up 2.7%. On our watchlist we have stocks like $HUBS, $JD and $CSGP.

The table below summarises the portfolio performance since inception.

2000821 RIP

If you don’t want to miss my alerts, please subscribe to Responsible Investor or follow me on Twitter. I also run an eToro portfolio which currently has 25 positions and can be accessed via this link.

Responsible Investor Portfolio Update, August 15th, 2020 | $TCEHY $NEM $BK $SYF $GILD $GRUB $SQQQ $SCO $PCG $LVMUY $LRLCY $PEUGF $ELC.MI $WBD.MI

Another positive week for the global stock markets with Europe over-performing the US. The Italian stock market jumped almost 5% while the Stoxx index gapped 2.77% higher. The Dow and the S&P500 were up 2 and 1%, respectively. The Nasdaq was very quiet and closed marginally higher.

There are increasing calls from investment banks for a potential future over-performance of the Stoxx versus the US Stock Markets which have run a lot: YTD, the S&P500 is up 4.7% while the Stoxx index is down 10% and the FTSE MIB lags behind with a -13,82%. There are exceptions within Europe: for example the Danish stock market being up 15% YTD and currently has a P/E of 31. With our portfolio consisting of European stocks for 68% at present, we are geared to benefit from a possible mid-term rise of the European stocks.

We have had 3 winners this week as $SYF , WeBuild and Elica rose between 5% and 7%. This week’s sell off in gold has negatively impacted on $NEM , down 7%, however this precious metal is expected to rise further in the near future.

$TCEHY continues to be hit by anti-China US policies and, more recently, by the dispute between $AAPL and $GOOG vs Epic Games, the company behind popular video game Fortnite in which Tencent has a stake.

Two of our positions hit the SL price, namely $SCO and $GILD. For the latter it might have just been bad timing as the fundamentals and the valuation remains strong: we might get back in if the earnings continue to grow and the technicals suggest an entry point.

The table below summarises the portfolio performance since inception.

2000814 RIP

If you don’t want to miss my alerts, please subscribe to Responsible Investor or follow me on Twitter. I also run an eToro portfolio which currently has 25 positions and can be accessed via this link.

Responsible Investor Portfolio Update, August 8th, 2020 | $TCEHY $NEM $BK $SYF $GILD $GRUB $SQQQ $SCO $PCG $LVMUY $LRLCY $PEUGF $ELC.MI

Welcome to the ever rising stock market era where nothing that used to matter really matters anymore. One could call it state capitalism.

Another week of growth across the board with the US markets leading the push towards ATHs. With the US presidential election now just 90 days away, chances are that more stimulus and more bubble blowing policies will be implemented. That’s all well and good in the short term, but will happen in the long term ? If momentum is dictating the current market direction, at some point valuations will matter, one would think.

In the meantime our portfolio was basically flat this week due to a couple stinkers, namely $TCEHY -which has been affected by Trump’s attack to Chinese stocks- and Italian Contractor WeBuild which has now dropped below 1.1€ and is very close to my line in the sand. On the positive side, $GRUB becomes our first position to pass the 30% mark, a capital appreciation threshold I use to determine when to have take profit (TP) ready: more on this in future weekly updates.

We have sold our position on $IMA.MI on Monday with a nice +14% profit in just one week ! No other changes to the portfolio this week but there are many stocks on my watchlist, such as $CSPG, $SMSFT and $AMAT.

From this week onwards you will see all the stop loss (SL) prices which have been defined so far. A general rule I follow is to consider a 7 to 10% loss to determine the SL price depending on whether it is a divided stock or not and on the general market performance. The SL price increases if the investment relates to a leveraged ETF. And with every rule, there are always exceptions of course !

The table below summarises the portfolio performance since inception.

2000807 RIP

If you don’t want to miss my alerts, please subscribe to Responsible Investor or follow me on Twitter. I also run an eToro portfolio which currently has 25 positions and can be accessed via this link.

Responsible Investor Portfolio Update, August 1st, 2020 | $TCEHY $NEM $BK $SYF $GILD $GRUB $SQQQ $SCO $PCG $LVMUY $LRLCY $WBD.MI $IMA.MI $ELC.MI

It is surprising how the global stock markets are capable of shrugging off just about any news headline recently. This week was no different. The pandemic keeps wreaking havoc in many developing countries and of course in the US as a second wave in Europe seems inevitable now. Check out these great graphs from the Financial Times.

On Wednesday the CEOs of the largest 4 tech companies, Apple, Amazon, Google and Facebook appeared before a US Congress Committee to be “grilled” on anti-trust accusations. You can’t say anyone of them lost their cool, really, and when the same companies all reported their Q2 earnings after the close the following day on the one hand it seemed that as if there is nothing to stop them from hoarding cash, and on the other it does reinforce the point of whether there is fair competition and reasonable profit.

The US markets were up this week, especially the Nasdaq, while the World Stocks Index was mostly flat. Italy saw a sharp decline, just shy of 5%, and the European stock markets in general were also down (Stoxx index fell by 2.6%). The other stock market we watch closely, the Nasdaq Copenhagen, was less badly hit with a 1.4% loss and continues to outperform most European stock markets.

We keep finding great investment opportunities in the Italian stock market. A classic  rule when it comes to personal finance is to invest in what you know. This past week I have sent two new buy alerts, one for mid-cap in the Industrial sector called IMA (which is already up 14% since my buy alert) and another one for a Consumer Cyclical stock called Elica, both traded on the Italian stock market.

I am disappointed by the recent weakness in WeBuild which tanked 21% this week. This is a good example of why focusing only on valuation is not sufficient to pick (or deciding to stick with) a stock: if the market is against it, you won’t see it grow. With the 38.2% fib level broken, there is the risk of further depreciation. I will look into it more closely in due course and send an alert if I sell/reduce/accumulate.

WBD.MI_YahooFinanceChart

I realised that one of our SQQQ position was incorrectly reported despite the ETF having hit our SL price of 8.1$: apologies for the inconvenience.

So far we have not included dividends in the total return and I will endeavor to add this information in a future update as some of our stocks have already paid a quarterly dividend since the inception of the RI portfolio.

The table below summarises the portfolio performance since inception.

200731 RIP

If you don’t want to miss my alerts, please subscribe to Responsible Investor or follow me on Twitter. I also run an eToro portfolio which currently has 20+ positions and can be accessed via this link.

Responsible Investor Portfolio Update, July 25th, 2020 | $TCEHY $NEM $BK $SYF $GILD $GRUB $SQQQ $SCO $PCG $LVMUY $LRLCY

I was on holidays for the last two weeks and while I took a break from the weekly blog, I kept an eye on the markets and even sent three buy alerts over this period. So much has happened within the span of a fortnight, from the worsening of the pandemic in the US, to the diplomatic tension between the US and China and the start of the earnings season. While the first two may offer an excuse for a correction, all eyes are on earnings which will be the reality check for this frothy market.

Two months have passed since the inception of the Responsible Investor Portfolio and we are still in the black with a total return of 1.9% (excluding dividends) whereas the market is up 1.3% (0.6% market beat).

The majority of our 18 portfolio positions are traded in European currencies whereas 43% is in USD. Over the last two weeks the USD has lost 4.4% vs the Euro and this impacts on our portfolio on which I report in USD.

We initiated a position in Tencent the week before last and also one in the Italian contractor WeBuild (previously trading as Salini). Following the approval of the EU Recovery Fund and a positive technical signal, I also sent a buy alert for an ETF which reproduces the price of a selection of European dividend stocks and is traded on the Italian stock market, EUDV.MI.

The table below summarises the portfolio performance since inception.

200724 RIP

If you don’t want to miss my alerts, please subscribe to Responsible Investor or follow me on Twitter. I also run an eToro portfolio which currently has 15+ positions and can be accessed via this link.

 

$NEM $BK $SYF $GILD $GRUB $SQQQ $SCO $PCG $LVMUY $LRLCY| Responsible Investor Portfolio Update, July 4th, 2020

Q2 ended with a bang and Q3 started on a positive note. All major markets were up this week as the sentiment continues to be positive despite the concerning news about C-19 in the US and other non-European countries. Note the typical behaviour of the “momo crowd” erroneously reading certain news like the jump in new jobs in the US which however reflects events which occurred in the past rather than focussing on the future like “smart money” does.

Once again the US markets gapped higher, led by the Nasdaq (+4.6% weekly gain), while Europe lagged behind whilst delivering a gain, with the Italian stock market staging at 3.2% gain (#Stoxx +2.0% and #OMXC20 1.8%). Note however that most European indices have a lot more room to recover compared to the US stock market and this may affect the relative weight of our positions going forward. The Copenhagen stock market is up 10%+ YTD and its valuation is getting expensive.

Gold has passed a key resistance level and opened the opportunity for further appreciation: our position on $NEM enabled us to benefit from this move.

Our RI Portfolio was positive this week (+0,6%) but its growth was muted compared to the tracked stock markets because the hedges dragged it down. The markets are so buoyant and the valuations so high that I did not want to sell the hedges as things may change direction after the 4th of July weekend.

Five weeks after initiation we are showing a positive total return of 2.0% beating the Market by 0.6%.

No alerts this week ! I know it is nice to receive them but timing is also important.

This week’s winners in our RI Portfolio were both from Europe: Danske Bank (+6,4% gain) and Inwit (+5,7% gain).

No relative changes between the three currencies of the RI Portfolio.

We now have 15 open positions, 2 of which are leveraged hedges (inverse ETFs). Even in times of high valuations I keep finding cheap stocks and a possible further drop of the markets next week may offer an opportunity to initiate new positions.

The table below summarises the portfolio performance since inception.

2000703 RIP

If you don’t want to miss my alerts, please subscribe to Responsible Investor or follow me on Twitter. I also run an eToro portfolio which currently has 10+ positions and can be accessed via this link.

$NEM $LVMUY $LRLCY $BK $SYF $GILD $GRUB $SQQQ $SCO $PCG | Responsible Investor Portfolio Update, June 27th, 2020

This week was a roller-coaster for the global markets which pushed higher in the first two trading days to then loose strength and finish the week down. We still did not manage to have two consecutive negative days though !

In the US markets the #Dow suffered a 3.3% loss, followed by the #S&P500 which closed 2.9% lower than last week and the #Nasdaq which limited the loss to 1.9%. The weekly performance in Europe was no different, however all the three indices we follow more closely fared better than the US markets (#Stoxx -1.1%, #OMXC20 -1.3% and #FTSEMIB -1.6%).

Our RI Portfolio was nominally positive this week (+0,2%) and therefore outperformed these 6 indices by a weighted average of +2.6% thanks to selected stocks and especially to the hedges I had put in place during the preceding week, namely $SQQQ and $SCO.

We now have one full month of track record and I am pleased to see that we are showing a positive total return of 1.4% (+0,4% vs the Market).

There was only one Buy Alert this week, for precious metals stock #Newmont which benefited from the stock markets coming to a screeching halt. We also added to the triple inverse Nasdaq ETF $SQQQ position which proved to be the right move. With reduce and accumulate alerts the relative weight of the open positions change of course.

This week’s winners in our RI Portfolio were $SQQQ (+7,4% gain) and, once again, Grubhub (+8,1% gain).

No relative changes between the three currencies of the RI Portfolio.

We now have 15 open positions, 2 of which are leveraged hedges (inverse ETFs). Even in times of high valuations I keep finding cheap stocks and a possible further drop of the markets next week, especially around the quarter close, may offer an opportunity to initiate new positions.

The table below summarises the portfolio performance since inception.

200626 RIP

If you don’t want to miss my alerts, please subscribe to Responsible Investor or follow me on Twitter. I also run an eToro portfolio which currently has 30 positions and can be accessed via this link.