Responsible Investor Portfolio Weekly Update, November 14th, 2020 | $TCEHY $NEM $BK $SYF $CLIX $GRUB $PCG $LVMUY $LRLCY $PEUGF $IMPJY $TERRF $DSV.CO $DANSKE.CO $BRK $UMC $JD $ADSK $DVA $BYDDF $GOOG

It didn’t take more than just a few hours after our last weekly update was published for the news that Biden was confirmed to be 46th president to be broken last Saturday afternoon. Yesterday that outcome was further confirmed by the “final” results from a few states where the race was very close. The formal recognisition by China was an equally important milestone achieved by Biden, especially considering that Trump has still not conceded. It wasn’t the US presidential election to dominate the news and the market this week though. Attention swiftly shifted back to the pandemic but the concerning increase of Covid-19 cases was eased by the biggest story of the week: Pfizer’s announcement of their allegedly 90% effective vaccine. That day a massive rotation was observed from the so-called working from home stocks to those that have been badly hit by the pandemic.

Value outperformed growth this week as demonstrated by the Dow being up 4.1% while the S&P500 grew by 2.2% and the Nasdaq finished 0.6% negative. This side of the Pond, the Stoxx index was up 5.4%, the Italian FTSEMIB yielded a 6.4% weekly gain while the Danish stock market lagged and finished 1.8% lower. Our Responsible Investor portfolio was up 3.3%, with six of our positions gaining more than 10%.

$BRK released their earnings last Saturday. The main takeaway is that they bought back 9B $ worth of shares in Q3. Typically, companies implement buybacks as doing so reduces the number of shares outstanding, thereby inflating earnings per share and, often, the value of the stock. Berkshire must have thought that there was nothing else worth buying this quarter. $TRN.MI ‘s earnings were positive and the company will announce their 2021-2025 business plan on November 19th.

We added another technology stock this week, $ADSK, which is already up 2.4% in just two days. I have always admired the ability of this company to innovate as well as their earnings growth rate: their projected annual earnings growth for the next 5 years is 35% which is almost equal to the annual appreciation they have delivered over the past 5 years. To put things in perspective, with such a growth rate the stock could double in just over 2 years.

$SYF and $BK paid their quarterly dividend this week. Our Responsible Investor portfolio is now up 9.7% (10.4% including dividends) over its first 6 months. On my watchlist this week I have $GOOG and $CMG.

The table below summarises the portfolio performance since inception.

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Responsible Investor Portfolio Weekly Update, November 7th, 2020 | $TCEHY $NEM $BK $SYF $CLIX $GRUB $PCG $LVMUY $LRLCY $PEUGF $IMPJY $TERRF $DSV.CO $DANSKE.CO $BRK $UMC $JD $GOOG $ADSK $BYDDF

The US presidential election dominated the news cycles this week and still does. The global stock markets have welcomed the results that have been made available thus far and delivered a massive rally which offset last week´s steep decline. As the US get closer to finding out who their 46th president will be, there will soon be one less uncertainty to factor in the risk for.

Another piece of news which provided further tailwind to the US stock markets is the unemployment report that was published on Thursday and exceeded expectations highlighting the unemployment rate drop below 7%. The continuous outpour of increasing Covid-19 cases has been completely obfuscated by the US presidential election this week but this may change in the coming days as attention returns to coping with the pandemic.

The Stoxx index was up 5.4%, the Danish stock market grew by 6.4% and the Italian FTSEMIB closed with a 7.4% weekly gain. In the US the Nasdaq was up 8.9%, the S&P500 gained 7.3% and the Dow finished 6.8% higher. Our Responsible Investor portfolio was up 6.9%, broadly in line with the global markets. Three of our positions gained more than 10%, one of them is our recent buy, Chinese e-commerce stock $JD which finished 13.5% higher this week. On the currency front, the USD weakened relative to the EUR. This also bumped up gold as well as our mining stock $NEM.

The earnings season continues as companies keep beating estimates and guiding higher, on average. $DANSKE.CO reported earnings this week and benefitted from an upgrade by Morgan Stanley who increased their TP to 101kr per share while the stock is currently priced at 90kr. $BRK´s earnings are due today. Next week two of our Italian stocks will report earnings, $TRN.MI and $RWAY.MI.

Quarterly dividends are due for payment this week for two of our financial stocks, namely $SYF and $BK. We report on both capital appreciation and dividend yield so as to track total return for our positions.

The table below summarises the portfolio performance since inception.

Responsible Investor Portfolio Weekly Update, October 31st, 2020 | $TCEHY $NEM $BK $SYF $CLIX $GRUB $PCG $LVMUY $LRLCY $PEUGF $WBD.MI $DSV.CO $DANSKE.CO $BRK $UMC $JD $GOOG $ADSK $BYDDF

It was a horrible week for the stock markets, the worst since March actually, with most indices suffering from more than 5% losses. The main concern continues to be the second wave of the pandemic which is inducing several governments to impose new lockdowns, however ‘soft’. The upcoming US presidential election is another cause of uncertainty as demonstrated by increased volatility levels: even though this coming Tuesday is election day, considering that many votes have been cast by mail, it is likely that the winner won’t be known until week after next or even beyond that. There is an unmissable Netflix special on US voting rights which is free to watch on Youtube.

Going back to last week, out of the markets we watch more closely, only Denmark had a more muted response and was only down 3.1% while the Stoxx was 5.4% lower and the Italian FTSEMIB suffered a 6.6% loss. In the US the Nasdaq was down 5.4%, the S&P500 5.6% and the Dow 6.4%. Here is an interesting video with a summary of the technical analysis for the US stock market: while valuation is the main ingredient in investing, momentum should not be ignored. Our Responsible Investor portfolio was down 3.9% which means that we have beat the market by 2%. Yesterday was the last trading day of October, which finished lower for most indices.

It was a big week for Q3 earnings with tech giants like $AMZN, $FB, $AAPL and $GOOG reporting on Thursday. Amazon had by far the most impressive top and bottom line numbers, while Apple somewhat disappointed. $TWTR dropped 21% the day after their earnings report came out: looks like an overreaction to me but I would not touch it until one of the two US president candidates concedes.

$NEM beat earnings doubling their profit yoy for what was their best quarter ever: the stock has had a good week compared to the various indices as investors turned to gold and I still consider it grossly undervalued based on the earnings growth projections.

$GRUB smashed their earnings on Wednesday. Their sales were up 54% yoy but the stock was down last week and followed the mainstream trend. The stock is poised for more growth based on estimates but it will be important to see whether momentum will be on its side too otherwise we will lock in our profits, pull the plug and put our money to work elsewhere.

$PCG missed on the bottom line while they matched revenue expectations: I will review our position and send an alert if I feel we need to act on our position. Finally $DSV.CO reported an earnings beat and finished the week with a 0.3% gain; they have also guided higher in terms of EBIT margin. Next week $DANSKE.CO and $BRK will report earnings.

We have made two buys on Thursday: $UMC, our first semiconductor play and $JD, a Chinese consumer mega-cap stock. I think they have a long way to go given their current a projected valuations but only time will tell!

The table below summarises the portfolio performance since inception.

Responsible Investor Portfolio Weekly Update, October 24th, 2020 | $TCEHY $NEM $BK $SYF $CLIX $GRUB $PCG $LVMUY $LRLCY $PEUGF $WBD.MI $DSV.CO $DANSKE.CO $BRK $UMC $AAPL $JD $ADSK $BYDDF

The global markets were down this week, especially the European indices which are battling with rising covid-19 cases. The Italian stock market distinguished itself from the others thanks to Moody’s upgrading its outlook from negative to stable while maintaining the rating unchanged at BBB: the FTSEMIB recovered on Friday and finished the week with a 0.7% loss while the Stoxx was down 1.7%. The Danish stock market fell as much as 2.9% as the country saw the Rt growing again, effectively reversing the trend which was initially showing a containment of the second wave: despite this week’s fall, investing in the Danish stock market has been rewarding so far in 2020 as the Copenhagen OMX25 is up 22% YTD.

The US stock market indices were also down this week. Interestingly, the three main indices (Dow Jones, SP500 and Nasdaq) were mostly in sync in the first three trading days of the week, as if they were in waiting mode for the last US presidential debate which polarised the attention of the media and of the world on Wednesday night. While the debate was not as balanced as the ad by the two contenders of the Utah state, it did seems like a decent confrontation between Trump and Biden, especially compared to the first one. The last two trading days of the week, however saw the SP500 recover some of the losses and finish with a 0.4% decline while the Dow and the Nasdaq fell 0.85 and 0.9%, respectively.

$SYF beat earnings on Tuesday and announced a multi-year extension of the financing and credit card relationship with $WMT and Sam’s Club. It also declared a $0.22/share quarterly dividend which corresponds to an annual forward yield of 3.27%. The stock goes ex-dividend on October 30th and the dividend is payable on November 12th. Next week $NEM, $DSV.CO, $GRUB and $PCG will report earnings.

You will remember that we had reduced our $GRUB position last week: the stock is down 2.5% since then, so it was good call. I will be watching its price action to determine whether the time is right to exit the rest of our position. As stock prices follow earnings and earnings expectations it will be critical to see what results the company reports this coming Tuesday for Q3.

Last week we talked about three stock on our watchlist which can benefit from the (post-)pandemic world. Those still apply but again I don’t like the volatility levels and the nearing US presidential election date won’t help in the short term. This week I would like to add a couple to our watchlist: the first one is an EV play, BYD Company Ltd (ticker: $BYDDF), and the other is a semiconductor stock, $UMC, out of Taiwan.

Our Responsible Investor portfolio was down 0.8% this week whereas the market was 0.9% lower which means that we have beaten the market again, however marginally.

The table below summarises the portfolio performance since inception.

Responsible Investor Portfolio Weekly Update, October 17th, 2020 | $TCEHY $NEM $BK $SYF $CLIX $GRUB $PCG $LVMUY $LRLCY $PEUGF $WBD.MI $DSV.CO $DANSKE.CO $BRK $AMWL $AAPL $JD $ADSK

It was a choppy week for the stock markets which continue to be dominated by the two narratives of the US presidential election and of Covid-19 numbers. The US stock markets were mildly positive, led by the Nasdaq (+0.8%), while the Stoxx declined 0.8% and the Italian index was 1.0% lower. The Danish stock market continues its rise and added another 0.6% gain.

The first significant week of the Q3 earnings saw notable beats in the banks stocks which have been lagging for most of the year. One of our bank stocks, $BK reported better than expected earnings on Friday. But it was not all rosy in that sector as $WFC missed earnings and tumbled on Thursday. Our exposure to the bank sector is limited and we will likely keep it that way for a while.

The earnings of one of our consumer cyclical stocks, $MC.PA, were extremely positive thanks to a beat on both the top and the bottom line: Q3 revenue was up by almost 4B€ ! The stock rallied 5% and is now up 13.6% since we bought it. Next week $SYF will report earnings.

We have reduced our $GRUB position this week: the stock has run a lot, +13.2% just in this last week, and after the takeover news I felt we needed to protect our profits in case the market or the stock was attacked by sellers.

The Covid-19 numbers are exerting more pressure on the physical world while e-commerce and tech companies in general thrive. I am getting ready to make a move on an online retailer (spoiler: not $AMZN) and I would like to increase our exposure to the technology sectors with companies such as $AAPL and $ADSK. Let’s see if this week will be the right one.

Our Responsible Investor portfolio was up 1.6% this week: based on the weighting of our stocks relative to the indices they are traded on, this corresponds to a 2.0% market beat.

The table below summarises the portfolio performance since inception.

Responsible Investor Portfolio Weekly Update, October 10th, 2020 | $TCEHY $NEM $BK $SYF $CLIX $GRUB $PCG $LVMUY $LRLCY $PEUGF $WBD.MI $DSV.CO $DANSKE.CO $BRK $DQ $AMWL $AAPL

All stock markets were markedly higher this week, led by the US indices which rallied for most of the week, fueled by the president’s alleged recovery from C-19 and the possibility of another stimulus bill being passed in the not too distant future. Biden has increased his lead in the run for the presidency and while his policies are not considered positive by most Wall Street investors, the markets love clarity and stability, which a clean win would provide. Uncertainty and unpredictability have often led to an increase of volatility.

Up to now very few S&P 500 companies have reported their Q3 earnings and next week the earnings season goes in full swing with some large banks and it will be interesting to see whether or not they will be able to deliver better results compared to previous quarters. Year to date investing in banks has meant being on the losing side and valuations are very currently attractive; whether or not the stock prices will rise will mainly depend on their ability to grow their earnings.

Our Responsible Investor portfolio was up 2.4% this week. We have finally seen some positive movement on Webuild which closed the week 5.3% higher. The opening of the Gerald Desmond Replacement Bridge in the US was a significant milestone: let’s see whether the growth will continue over the next few weeks. The banks and financial stocks in our portfolio were on fire this week: $SYF is now up 34% since we bought it in late May. $GRUB has now reached the 30% mark and I would also like to mention our recent buy in the transportation sector $DSV.CO which is up 7% in less than 3 weeks.

We have made one buy this week, Warren Buffet’s $BRK-B which is a well known diversified business. While the purchase was triggered by a technical signal, it is intended to have a stabilising function similar to the one a position in bonds would have in a portfolio which mainly consists of stocks. In the past I have typically owned a 10-15% position in governmental bonds, mostly from BBB countries, but in this period I find corporate bonds or stable companies like Berkshire -which offer a moderate yet steady capital appreciation in the long term- more attractive.

The current positions of our portfolio amount to about 42% of the available capital, which means that we have 58% in cash. I am therefore always on the lookout for new buys: on my watchlist I have a renewable energy company like $DQ, a telemedicine play like $AMWL as well as $AAPL which will deliver a special event next week during which the launch of the new iPhone 12 is expected.

Some of our stocks pay a dividend, either yearly or quarterly: from this week onwards I will report the dividend adjusted growth of our portfolio. So far the dividends received have increased our overall performance by 0.8%, which is significant given that less than 5 months have passed since inception.

The table below summarises the portfolio performance since inception.

Responsible Investor Portfolio Weekly Update, October 3rd, 2020 | $TCEHY $NEM $BK $SYF $CLIX $GRUB $PCG $LVMUY $LRLCY $PEUGF $WBD.MI $DSV.CO $DANSKE.CO $NOW $QCOM $DQ $FDX $AMWL $CIEN $AAPL $GOOG

September is finally over and has seen the global markets go lower despite the uptrend in the last trading days of the month. Our Responsible Investor portfolio has beaten the market over this period by 0.9%. In mid to long term investing this is crucial because compounding is amplified relative to the market average performance. When friends ask me how to invest 10k € I suggest that they buy a US market index ETF because that´s too small a sum to diversify your portfolio with a group of stocks with which you can aspire to beat the market. Starting from 30 to 40k €, however, one can have about 25 to 35 different stocks, ETF or bond positions and it makes more sense to pick a diversified group of superior stocks rather than accepting the market average return.

I don´t normally keep a stock beyond a loss of 10% and in that respect construction company Webuild is a “stinker”: because I believe the stock has a great potential for capital appreciation and is somewhat subject to the fluctuations of the Italian stock market, I have not pulled the plug yet. This week I have lowered the stop loss price as you can see from the table below and when the technicals are right, I might even send an accumulation alert.

Volatility seems range-bound lately, especially in the last 3 weeks. It remains well above 20 and the news flow is such that there are less opportunities for it to reduce particularly considering there are now only 30 days to the US presidential election and one of the candidates has contracted Covid-19. The recent pullback has provided an entry point to a few good stocks such as $CIEN $AAPL $GOOG and $ORSTED.CO, let’s see if the coming week will be a good time to make a purchase.

Banks and financials were the strongest positions of our portfolio this week, with $SYF advancing by 9.2%, followed by $DANSKE.CO (5.7%) and $BK (4.0%). Our two consumer cyclical stocks, both trading on the French stock market also showed their strength as $MC.PA gapped 3.9% higher and $OR.PA rose by 1.9%. In the meantime very soft inflation data were published in Europe and with the second wave in full swing in most countries, it will be interesting to see what is the next move the ECB will make on the monetary policy side.

The table below summarises the portfolio performance since inception.

Responsible Investor Portfolio Update, August 29th, 2020 | $TCEHY $NEM $BK $SYF $CLIX $GRUB $PCG $LVMUY $LRLCY $PEUGF $ELC.MI $WBD.MI

Just when one might have started thinking that the FED was running out of ideas to sustain the growth in the stock market, Jay Powell announced an unprecedented change to the inflation policy from 2% as a goal to 2% on average as the target. Not that inflation has gone up during years of balance sheet expansion, including in the EU, but it does provide more room should it pick up and pass the 2% mark. That news depreciated the dollar even further relative to the euro.

In more recent news, Japan was hit by the sad news of their long-standing Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announcing to step down due to illness after 8 years of service and one year before the natural end of his term. This exerted pressure on the Japanese stock market as it can be seen from the drop the $EWJ ETF had on Thursday. It will be interesting to see whether his successor will continue to embrace the so-called “Abenomics” and maintain the stability Abe achieved by ending a streak of several predecessors who only lasted 1 year on average as PMs of Japan.

The US stock markets have had an impressive week with the three main indices all closing 2%+ higher. Europe had a good week as the Stoxx index moved 1.1% higher but the national stock markets performance varied: for example Italy was up 0.7% while Denmark was down 0.3%.

No changes to our portfolio this week. Our best performer was $SYF which gapped 7.8% higher, followed by one of our two banks stocks, $BK, which grew by 5.1%. $GRUB fell 4.4%, however that’s not concerning given how much it has run over the past weeks.

On my watchlist there are stocks like $WDAY, $QCOM and inverse ETFs such as $SQQQ.

The table below summarises the portfolio performance since inception.

2000828 RIP

If you don’t want to miss my alerts, please subscribe to Responsible Investor or follow me on Twitter. I also run an eToro portfolio which currently has 30+ positions and can be accessed via this link.

Responsible Investor Portfolio Update, July 25th, 2020 | $TCEHY $NEM $BK $SYF $GILD $GRUB $SQQQ $SCO $PCG $LVMUY $LRLCY

I was on holidays for the last two weeks and while I took a break from the weekly blog, I kept an eye on the markets and even sent three buy alerts over this period. So much has happened within the span of a fortnight, from the worsening of the pandemic in the US, to the diplomatic tension between the US and China and the start of the earnings season. While the first two may offer an excuse for a correction, all eyes are on earnings which will be the reality check for this frothy market.

Two months have passed since the inception of the Responsible Investor Portfolio and we are still in the black with a total return of 1.9% (excluding dividends) whereas the market is up 1.3% (0.6% market beat).

The majority of our 18 portfolio positions are traded in European currencies whereas 43% is in USD. Over the last two weeks the USD has lost 4.4% vs the Euro and this impacts on our portfolio on which I report in USD.

We initiated a position in Tencent the week before last and also one in the Italian contractor WeBuild (previously trading as Salini). Following the approval of the EU Recovery Fund and a positive technical signal, I also sent a buy alert for an ETF which reproduces the price of a selection of European dividend stocks and is traded on the Italian stock market, EUDV.MI.

The table below summarises the portfolio performance since inception.

200724 RIP

If you don’t want to miss my alerts, please subscribe to Responsible Investor or follow me on Twitter. I also run an eToro portfolio which currently has 15+ positions and can be accessed via this link.

$LVMUY $LRLCY $BK $SYF $GILD $GRUB $SQQQ $SCO $PCG | Responsible Investor Portfolio Update, June 20th, 2020

The global markets were consistently positive this past week, with Italy’s #FTSEMIB leading with a 3.9% gain. Our RI Portfolio lagged behind due to the hedges I had put in place. I had increased our hedges as I felt the markets were “tired” of going up but the week was largely positive in the end. Well, we are still showing a positive total return and we are only 3 weeks in since inception ! Also, I’d rather always loose on my hedges than on my core positions..

We have initiated 4 new positions this week, all in the European markets: two consumer French large caps, Luis Vuitton and L’Oreal and two Italian stocks, one in the media sector and the other one in the technology sector. We have also accumulated on Pacific Gas and Electric Company. With reduce and accumulate alerts the relative weight of the open positions change of course.

This week’s winners in our RI Portfolio were Italy-based Terna (+8,4% gain) and Grubhub (+6,2% gain).

The USD lost some ground compared to the EUR (0.9%) while there was no impact of the Danish krona. This means that in a portfolio in USD, the European stocks will have lost some of their value.

We now have 14 open positions, 2 of which are leveraged hedges (inverse ETFs). We are almost half way through along the path to achieve a complete portfolio. The table below summarises the portfolio performance since inception and now includes the investment strategy for each position.

If you don’t want to miss my alerts, please subscribe to Responsible Investor or follow me on Twitter. I also run an eToro portfolio which has 20+ positions and can be accessed via this link.