Responsible Investor Portfolio Weekly Update, September 26th, 2020 | $TCEHY $NEM $BK $SYF $CLIX $GRUB $PCG $LVMUY $LRLCY $PEUGF $WBD.MI $DSV.CO $DANSKE.CO $NOW $QCOM $DQ $FDX $AMWL $SNOW

If it wasn’t for a strong day on Friday, all US markets indices would have been down this week, but the Nasdaq somehow pulled off a 1.2% weekly push higher, whereas the S&P500 was 0.6% lower and the Dow lagged with a 1.7% decline. The Russell 2000 (the US small caps index) tanked finishing the week 4% lower. The situation wasn’t that different in Europe as the Stoxx was down 1.1%, the Italian FTSEMIB even lower with a 1.4% decline and the Danish OMX25 was only nominally higher.

Finally a buy, and the first stock from the transportation sector in our Responsible Investor portfolio: DSV Panalpina ($DSV.CO), a Danish shipping company. I have been meaning to go long on this stock for months and waited for a pull back that never came. This is one of the typical mistakes of irrational investors who are often unwilling to buy a stock that is always going up. In fact, if the stock is undervalued, the fact that it is appreciating is a pro, not a con, because investors have all they need, ie valuation and momentum, on their side.

The pressure is mounting on Nikola ($NKLA), the latest hype in the EV stocks as the CEO resigned just days after Hindenburg Research released a report accusing the CEO of overstating claims on the readiness of Nikola’s technology and misinforming investors. After a fall of 42% in just one week the stock is still worth 7B$ with annual sales of 440k$: think about that for a moment. The stock is still up 88% YTD but has fallen 75% from the July high. I will keep staying away from it and have another EV stock on my watchlist.

Our portfolio was down this week, but not as much as the market. This is thanks to tech stocks like $GRUB, utility company $PCG and our latest purchase $DSV.CO, all up 3+%. $NEM was hit because of the sharp decline in the price of Gold. Both our banks stocks were affected by the weekly downturn. Overall, though, it is good to see our RI portfolio having beaten the market this week.

It looks like there is no going back to the previous normalcy, at least not in the near future given the rising number of Covid-19 cases globally, therefore shipping stocks are poised for further growth. On my watchlist I have $FDX which looks grossly undervalued based on future earnings estimates. It is up 57% YTD whereas competitor companies like $UPS and $DPW.DE are up 37% and 11%, respectively.

After months of depreciation relative to the euro, the dollar has been showing signs of strength: the EUR/USD is down from 1.18 to 1.16 and is now at the 138.2% Fib level from the March 11th relative high: will it rebound from here ? I periodically report on the the EUR/USD as our portfolio is calculated in USD and has a mix of stocks traded in USD, EUR or DKK, the latter being pegged to the EUR.

The table below summarises the portfolio performance since inception.

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Responsible Investor Portfolio Weekly Update, September 12th, 2020 | $TCEHY $NEM $BK $SYF $CLIX $GRUB $PCG $LVMUY $LRLCY $PEUGF $WBD.MI $NOW $QCOM $ZS

Happy Saturday from Copenhagen whose stock market continues to push higher. After a negative week, in the last 5 days the OMX index rose by 2.1% to levels now very close to all time highs. The European stock markets in general had a very good week, with the Stoxx index up 1.7% and the Italian FTSEMIB growing by 2.2%. As our portfolio consists in European stocks for 65%, it is not surprising that we have had a great week ourselves with a 2.3% increase versus a market performance of 0.4%.

The US stock markets were down, especially the Nasdaq which fell by 4%. The technology sector was the laggard and yet our two tech stocks, $GRUB and $TCEHY outperformed the Nasdaq which is a sign of their relative strength. After a long period which started in late March when it almost seemed that it didn’t matter which stock investors decided to buy we are now back to a market of stocks and picking the right one will be key.

There were several good news of our Italian stocks: Inwit and Raiway rose by 9.1 and 7.5%, respectively. On the automotive side, $UG.PA continues its rise: with this week’s 6.1% increase it is up 17% since my buy alert. Consumer discretionary also had a good week, especially in the luxury sector as the 3.4% weekly increase of $MC.PA demonstrated. It was a negative week for the bank sector and our two positions weren’t immune: it will be interesting to see if this downward trend continues in which case we will have to pull the plug.

I continue to like lots of candidate stocks to add to our portfolio, such as $NOW, $QCOM or $ZS but I would like to see the volatility reduce before we make our next buys. As always I will send a Buy Alert on this website and on Twitter if the time is right.

The table below summarises the portfolio performance since inception.

If you don’t want to miss my alerts, please subscribe to Responsible Investor or follow me on Twitter. I also run an eToro portfolio which currently has 30+ positions and can be accessed via this link.

Responsible Investor Portfolio Update, August 29th, 2020 | $TCEHY $NEM $BK $SYF $CLIX $GRUB $PCG $LVMUY $LRLCY $PEUGF $ELC.MI $WBD.MI

Just when one might have started thinking that the FED was running out of ideas to sustain the growth in the stock market, Jay Powell announced an unprecedented change to the inflation policy from 2% as a goal to 2% on average as the target. Not that inflation has gone up during years of balance sheet expansion, including in the EU, but it does provide more room should it pick up and pass the 2% mark. That news depreciated the dollar even further relative to the euro.

In more recent news, Japan was hit by the sad news of their long-standing Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announcing to step down due to illness after 8 years of service and one year before the natural end of his term. This exerted pressure on the Japanese stock market as it can be seen from the drop the $EWJ ETF had on Thursday. It will be interesting to see whether his successor will continue to embrace the so-called “Abenomics” and maintain the stability Abe achieved by ending a streak of several predecessors who only lasted 1 year on average as PMs of Japan.

The US stock markets have had an impressive week with the three main indices all closing 2%+ higher. Europe had a good week as the Stoxx index moved 1.1% higher but the national stock markets performance varied: for example Italy was up 0.7% while Denmark was down 0.3%.

No changes to our portfolio this week. Our best performer was $SYF which gapped 7.8% higher, followed by one of our two banks stocks, $BK, which grew by 5.1%. $GRUB fell 4.4%, however that’s not concerning given how much it has run over the past weeks.

On my watchlist there are stocks like $WDAY, $QCOM and inverse ETFs such as $SQQQ.

The table below summarises the portfolio performance since inception.

2000828 RIP

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Responsible Investor Portfolio Update, August 15th, 2020 | $TCEHY $NEM $BK $SYF $GILD $GRUB $SQQQ $SCO $PCG $LVMUY $LRLCY $PEUGF $ELC.MI $WBD.MI

Another positive week for the global stock markets with Europe over-performing the US. The Italian stock market jumped almost 5% while the Stoxx index gapped 2.77% higher. The Dow and the S&P500 were up 2 and 1%, respectively. The Nasdaq was very quiet and closed marginally higher.

There are increasing calls from investment banks for a potential future over-performance of the Stoxx versus the US Stock Markets which have run a lot: YTD, the S&P500 is up 4.7% while the Stoxx index is down 10% and the FTSE MIB lags behind with a -13,82%. There are exceptions within Europe: for example the Danish stock market being up 15% YTD and currently has a P/E of 31. With our portfolio consisting of European stocks for 68% at present, we are geared to benefit from a possible mid-term rise of the European stocks.

We have had 3 winners this week as $SYF , WeBuild and Elica rose between 5% and 7%. This week’s sell off in gold has negatively impacted on $NEM , down 7%, however this precious metal is expected to rise further in the near future.

$TCEHY continues to be hit by anti-China US policies and, more recently, by the dispute between $AAPL and $GOOG vs Epic Games, the company behind popular video game Fortnite in which Tencent has a stake.

Two of our positions hit the SL price, namely $SCO and $GILD. For the latter it might have just been bad timing as the fundamentals and the valuation remains strong: we might get back in if the earnings continue to grow and the technicals suggest an entry point.

The table below summarises the portfolio performance since inception.

2000814 RIP

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Responsible Investor Portfolio Update, August 1st, 2020 | $TCEHY $NEM $BK $SYF $GILD $GRUB $SQQQ $SCO $PCG $LVMUY $LRLCY $WBD.MI $IMA.MI $ELC.MI

It is surprising how the global stock markets are capable of shrugging off just about any news headline recently. This week was no different. The pandemic keeps wreaking havoc in many developing countries and of course in the US as a second wave in Europe seems inevitable now. Check out these great graphs from the Financial Times.

On Wednesday the CEOs of the largest 4 tech companies, Apple, Amazon, Google and Facebook appeared before a US Congress Committee to be “grilled” on anti-trust accusations. You can’t say anyone of them lost their cool, really, and when the same companies all reported their Q2 earnings after the close the following day on the one hand it seemed that as if there is nothing to stop them from hoarding cash, and on the other it does reinforce the point of whether there is fair competition and reasonable profit.

The US markets were up this week, especially the Nasdaq, while the World Stocks Index was mostly flat. Italy saw a sharp decline, just shy of 5%, and the European stock markets in general were also down (Stoxx index fell by 2.6%). The other stock market we watch closely, the Nasdaq Copenhagen, was less badly hit with a 1.4% loss and continues to outperform most European stock markets.

We keep finding great investment opportunities in the Italian stock market. A classic  rule when it comes to personal finance is to invest in what you know. This past week I have sent two new buy alerts, one for mid-cap in the Industrial sector called IMA (which is already up 14% since my buy alert) and another one for a Consumer Cyclical stock called Elica, both traded on the Italian stock market.

I am disappointed by the recent weakness in WeBuild which tanked 21% this week. This is a good example of why focusing only on valuation is not sufficient to pick (or deciding to stick with) a stock: if the market is against it, you won’t see it grow. With the 38.2% fib level broken, there is the risk of further depreciation. I will look into it more closely in due course and send an alert if I sell/reduce/accumulate.

WBD.MI_YahooFinanceChart

I realised that one of our SQQQ position was incorrectly reported despite the ETF having hit our SL price of 8.1$: apologies for the inconvenience.

So far we have not included dividends in the total return and I will endeavor to add this information in a future update as some of our stocks have already paid a quarterly dividend since the inception of the RI portfolio.

The table below summarises the portfolio performance since inception.

200731 RIP

If you don’t want to miss my alerts, please subscribe to Responsible Investor or follow me on Twitter. I also run an eToro portfolio which currently has 20+ positions and can be accessed via this link.

$NEM $BK $SYF $GILD $GRUB $SQQQ $SCO $PCG $LVMUY $LRLCY| Responsible Investor Portfolio Update, July 4th, 2020

Q2 ended with a bang and Q3 started on a positive note. All major markets were up this week as the sentiment continues to be positive despite the concerning news about C-19 in the US and other non-European countries. Note the typical behaviour of the “momo crowd” erroneously reading certain news like the jump in new jobs in the US which however reflects events which occurred in the past rather than focussing on the future like “smart money” does.

Once again the US markets gapped higher, led by the Nasdaq (+4.6% weekly gain), while Europe lagged behind whilst delivering a gain, with the Italian stock market staging at 3.2% gain (#Stoxx +2.0% and #OMXC20 1.8%). Note however that most European indices have a lot more room to recover compared to the US stock market and this may affect the relative weight of our positions going forward. The Copenhagen stock market is up 10%+ YTD and its valuation is getting expensive.

Gold has passed a key resistance level and opened the opportunity for further appreciation: our position on $NEM enabled us to benefit from this move.

Our RI Portfolio was positive this week (+0,6%) but its growth was muted compared to the tracked stock markets because the hedges dragged it down. The markets are so buoyant and the valuations so high that I did not want to sell the hedges as things may change direction after the 4th of July weekend.

Five weeks after initiation we are showing a positive total return of 2.0% beating the Market by 0.6%.

No alerts this week ! I know it is nice to receive them but timing is also important.

This week’s winners in our RI Portfolio were both from Europe: Danske Bank (+6,4% gain) and Inwit (+5,7% gain).

No relative changes between the three currencies of the RI Portfolio.

We now have 15 open positions, 2 of which are leveraged hedges (inverse ETFs). Even in times of high valuations I keep finding cheap stocks and a possible further drop of the markets next week may offer an opportunity to initiate new positions.

The table below summarises the portfolio performance since inception.

2000703 RIP

If you don’t want to miss my alerts, please subscribe to Responsible Investor or follow me on Twitter. I also run an eToro portfolio which currently has 10+ positions and can be accessed via this link.

A potential takeover target: Nokia $NOK

This week saw the first group of earnings come in with the financial sector under the spotlight. The big US banks did rather poorly, for the most part: this is for example the case for Wells Fargo, which we own in one of our portfolios, who took a 14.6% weekly loss while the Dow was up 2.2%. On the flipside, our other bank stock, the Bank of New York Mellon Corp (ticker: $BK ) reported better an expected earnings and ended the week with a 0.6% gain. Even within a badly hit sector, there can be outperformers.

But our last week’s biggest winners were Danone (ticker: $BN.PA ) and AstraZeneca, both European stocks, one operating in the food industry and the other in the pharmaceutical sector, who boasted a 9.1% and a 12.1% gain, respectively !

We have made several buys and sells this week. For starters we have locked in a 5.41% gain on Dexcom (ticker: $DXCM ). This company is so promising that I am sure we will be back, but I don’t trust this overly positive sentiment at the moment and, feet to fire, I would guess that next week the market may pause.

The ETF we own which reproduces the German stock market has run a lot lately, after a period of consolidation (those who swear by technical analysis would say “bull flag”), and this week we have exited the position on $EWG with a 7.12% gain in just 2 weeks !

Finally, we have closed our long position on gold, via the $GLD ETF, with a nice 5% gain in less than two months.

From the buy side, we have initiated a long position on Nokia (ticker; $NOK ) which is a potential takeover target. We’ll keep a close watch on it and if it plays out it can result in a significant upside.

If you want to see all the positions of one of my portfolios, you are welcome to follow me on eToro here.