Responsible Investor Portfolio Weekly Update, December 19th, 2020 | $TCEHY $NEM $BK $SYF $CLIX $GRUB $PCG $LVMUY $LRLCY $PEUGF $IMPJY $TERRF $DSV.CO $DANSKE.CO $BRK $UMC $JD $ADSK $GMAB $DVA $CMG $COUP $AMT $ADBE $AVGO

The Big Picture

The Covid-19 numbers keep rising in the US and while good news on the vaccine front instill confidence in the future, the near term appears very challenging. The impression is that mitigation measures are not being implemented as quickly as they should in the US, whereas lockdowns are announced every day in Europe, especially considering the upcoming holiday season is seen as a clear threat. Negotiations on the stimulus bill continue and seems to be very close to a positive resolution which might come as early as next week.

After last week’s positive vote for the $PFE vaccine, the FDA advisory board gave the green light to the $MRNA vaccine on Friday with no votes cast against it. This emergency authorization will increase the distribution of the vaccine within the US population, especially since it requires much lower storage temperatures.

The Fed met for the last time in 2021 on Wednesday meeting. The FOMC statement was quite dovish and Powell expects growth to pick up in the second half of the year. Bond buying will continue at a clip of 120B $ per month for the foreseeable future. The injection of liquidity has been massive and is believed to have propped the market considerably in recent months. The excess liquidity in particular, ie the liquidity that is not absorbed by the economy, tends to grow valuations. Nobel-prize winner and Yale professor Robert Schiller stated that valuations are not excessive earlier this month. Earnings have deflated 15% globally in 2020 but the 25% liquidity increase caused by central banks has made the markets gain 10% on average. With earnings expected to increase again in 2021 the market should go higher and valuations become more reasonable.

Market Performance

All US market indices finished higher, led by the Nasdaq, up 3.1%, followed by the S&P500 (1.3%) and the Dow (0.4%). The Stoxx was also higher (1.5%) and the Italian index partly recovered from last week’s loss ending with a 1.3% gain. The Danish OMX20 rallied 4.1% and is lined up to be the best index in developed countries this year. The US Dollar fell relative to the Euro and gold finished higher.

Earnings

$ACN traditionally reports earlier than most stocks and beat Q1 earnings on Thursday before market open and guided higher for 2021. The stock jumped 7% on that day and reached all time highs. I like the stock a lot and continue to own it in another portfolio.

$FDX also reported an earnings beat this week with 19% growth of the top line and more than double EPS yoy. Clearly the company, alongside its peers, has benefitted from a sharp increase in e-commerce and shipping demand. The stock fell sharply, however, after not providing guidance for 2021.

Dividends

The next dividend payments for our stocks are due in March, which is when most Danish company go ex-dividend.

Portfolio Performance

We beat the market this week, as our portfolio rose 2.5% versus a weighted average gain of the relevant market indices of 1.7% (+0.8% beat).

$UG.PA was up 7.1% this week and 51.1% overall. It now weighs 7% in our portfolio: I will be looking to scale down our position on pull backs as I don’t like to be too invested in a single stock. Other notable weekly jumps were observed in $ADSK (+9.1%) and $ELC.MI (+7.5%).

Our Responsible Investor portfolio is now up 15.0% (16.0% including dividends) in 29 weeks. We are about 56% in stocks & ETFs and 44% in cash. On my watchlist this week I have $DVA, $CMG, $COUP, $AMT, $AVGO and $ADBE.

The table below summarises the portfolio performance since inception.

If you don’t want to miss my alerts, please subscribe to Responsible Investor or follow me on Twitter. I also run an eToro portfolio which currently has 35+ positions and can be accessed via this link.

Responsible Investor Portfolio Weekly Update, December 12th, 2020 | $TCEHY $NEM $BK $SYF $CLIX $GRUB $PCG $LVMUY $LRLCY $PEUGF $IMPJY $TERRF $DSV.CO $DANSKE.CO $BRK $UMC $JD $ADSK $GMAB $DVA $ROKU $LMND $AMWL $AMT $ADBE $LULU $AVGO

The Big Picture

The pandemic continues to worsen in the US both in terms of daily cases and deaths. Reports now anticipate the peak to occur in January. Additional restrictions have been imposed this week, including the banning of indoor dining in New York and travel restrictions in the state of California. Despite these mitigation measures, the Christmas season is only expected to exacerbate the situation as people gather in any way they can. It surely feels like now would be a good time to pass that stimulus package, however speaker Pelosi is now anticipating the talks to continue over Christmas lengthening the time since they were initiated over summer.

On the data front, this weeks reports were mixed with the jobless claims surpassing 850k which corresponds to the largest week on week increase in the last 3 months. On the flipside, the Michigan University consumer sentiment index for December rose to 81.4 from 76.9 in the prior month.

The FDA advisory board voted in favour of the $PFE vaccine which has started being deployed in the UK. Next Thursday will be the time of the $MRNA vaccine. It seems that the market has already factored in the positive outcome of these emergency authorizations such that any delay to their approval could have an adverse, short-term impact.

Market Performance

The US market indices fell this week, led by the S&P500, down 1.0%, followed by the Nasdaq (-0.7%) and the Dow (-0.6%). The IPO bonanza is seen as one of the factors which caused the sell-off as fund managers rebalanced their portfolios to embellish them with popular names such as $ABNB and $DASH. The Stoxx was also lower (-1.0%) and the Italian index experienced a sharp decline (-2.2%) due political uncertainty. The Danish OMX20 finished 2.0% higher after two consecutive weeks of decline. The US Dollar was mostly unchanged relative to the Euro and gold finished flat.

Earnings

$ADBE beat earnings on Thursday after the market close and upped the 2021 guidance. While the company has seen its growth rate reducing to below 20% per year, it is still in the late teens. $LULU posted a surprised profit in Q3 and grew revenue by 21% yoy. I like them both but feel our exposure to the technology and the consumer discretionary sectors is well balanced in our portfolio at the moment.

In other corporate news, $DIS upped their projected subscriptions at the Investor Day by a factor or three which led the stock to a +15% finish for the week. $AAPL announced they are developing their own cellular modem which sent $QCOM sharply down.

Dividends

This week $NEM went ex-dividend and paid their quarterly dividend. We have one more stock of our portfolio going ex-dividend in December.

Portfolio Performance

We closed our remaining position on $GRUB this week after having halved it back in the middle of October. Overall, the investment yielded a whopping 35% profit.

Our Responsible Investor portfolio is now up 12.3% (13.2% including dividends) in 28 weeks. We are about 55% in stocks & ETFs and 45% in cash. On my watchlist this week I have $DVA, $AMWL, $LMND, $AMT, $AVGO and $ADBE.

The table below summarises the portfolio performance since inception.

If you don’t want to miss my alerts, please subscribe to Responsible Investor or follow me on Twitter. I also run an eToro portfolio which currently has 35+ positions and can be accessed via this link.

Responsible Investor Portfolio Weekly Update, December 5th, 2020 | $TCEHY $NEM $BK $SYF $CLIX $GRUB $PCG $LVMUY $LRLCY $PEUGF $IMPJY $TERRF $DSV.CO $DANSKE.CO $BRK $UMC $JD $ADSK $GMAB $DVA $ROKU $LMND $AMWL $AMT

The Big Picture

The US jobs report disappointed as only 245k jobs were added in November compared to more than 600k in October. This may well be a sign of the economic recovery slowing down which isn’t all surprising given the worsening situation of the pandemic in the US with Joe Biden intending to require citizens to wear masks for 100 days. Meanwhile the US Congress seems closer to agreeing on a stimulus package after weeks of deadlock as the democrats lower their ask to just below one trillion USD. On the vaccine front the FDA advisory board will meet on December 10th to discuss the approval of the $PFE vaccine and 7 days later for the $MRNA vaccine.

Market Performance

The US market indices were all up this week, led by the Nasdaq which gained 2.1%, followed by the S&P500 (+1.7%) and the Dow (+1.0%). After reaching 30,000 last week, the Dow finished at all times highs again this week. Europe was mixed: the Stoxx was only marginally higher (+0.3%) whereas the Italian index finished 0.8% lower and the OMX20 fell considerably (-2.2%). The US Dollar was weaker, though, and depreciated 1.29% versus the Euro. This weakness sent gold futures higher by 2.9% this week.

Earnings

Some of the stocks we are watching released Q3 earnings this week as the earnings season draws to a close. $DOCU for example beat earnings expectations on both the top and the bottom line: I really like this stock but it is difficult to keep up such a growth rate. On the cybersecurity sector $CRWD also beat earnings and added about 1,200 new customer subscriptions. Ollie’s Bargain Outlet (ticker: $OLLI) beat earnings but it is likely to feel the pressure in Q4 due to mounting concerns about C-19 numbers in the US.

None of our stocks reported earnings this week.

Dividends

This week $MC.PA went ex-dividend and paid a 0.92% dividend. The stock finished lower this week but is now up 28% since inception. Two more stocks of our portfolio go ex-dividend in December.

Portfolio Performance

Our semiconductor stock $UMC is on a tear: with this week’s 27% gain our position is up 55% in just 6 weeks. We haven’t seen any significant news to justify this action and it may just be the market catching up on its compelling valuation: at Friday’s close price, the stock now has a PEG ratio of about 1 which makes it fairly valued.

Our Responsible Investor portfolio is now up 14.9% (15.9% including dividends) in 27 weeks. We are about 56% in stocks & ETFs and 44% in cash. I am always on the lookout for possible new buys and am keen to enter the insurance as well as the telemedicine sectors in the not too distant future. On my watchlist this week I have $DVA, $AMWL, $LMND and $AMT.

The table below summarises the portfolio performance since inception.

If you don’t want to miss my alerts, please subscribe to Responsible Investor or follow me on Twitter. I also run an eToro portfolio which currently has 35+ positions and can be accessed via this link.