Another week of consistent recovery for the US stock market as well as for many others around the world. I remain cautious and still hold onto some hedges because this sudden reversal cannot be fully trusted and due to it being reportedly fueled by a short squeeze for the most part.
While I like to make investments for the long term, I do occasionally perform short term trades and this week I have managed to pull two off! One of them could be traded on eToro and related to eHealth (ticker: $EHTH ). What happened is the classic short selling amplified by the media, with a stock which was trading at 136$ until last week and dropping to below 100$ on Wednesday. I took the opportunity, bought at 99$ and exited at 114$ over the course of two days ! I believe the stock has the potential to go even higher and if I was a more aggressive investor, I would hold on to part of it, but decided to lock in the profit this week.
There were two more positions we closed this week, on two of the food-related stocks owned in my eToro portfolio, both with a 5% gain, Conagra Foods (ticker: $CAG ) and General Mills (ticker: $GIS ). These were both sold with the automatic sell function available on eToro. I am ready to get back into these two but when any my positions goes above a 10% gain, I have a take profit ready at 5% in order not to give up all the profit if the stock price goes down passed that mark. I then set up a price alert to be notified if the price goes up again past the sell price and re-evaluate my view on that particular stock.
I am also very satisfied with this week’s recovery in my $WFC position, with a 26% jump in just 4 trading days.
So now I am 49% in cash on my eToro portfolio and continue to look for more investment opportunities. One from my watchlist I am prepared to jump into is $BABA , but that will depend on how next week goes.
Enjoy the long weekend and for those who celebrate it, have a happy Easter !
If anyone claims to have the answer to this question, they really don’t know what they are saying because the truth is nobody knows. So the best thing to do is to objectively assess what is going on, to invest responsibly and be patient.
This past week has been another rollercoaster with the US markets rallying more than 13% as you can see from the $SPY (an ETF which reproduces the SP500 index), however the #volatility has not moved much, with a weekly reduction of just over 1% (see $VXX the ETF which reproduces the VIX). This means that it is too early to call the bottom in my opinion.
All investors who are predominantly long are obviously pleased to see this week’s jump, don’t get me wrong, but there are many examples of rallies which have followed large drops. Look at what happened during the 2008 crisis for example, there were 6 positive jumps between +9 and +19% on the way down. Before the market finally bottomed in Q1 2009 the volatility was greater than 30.
So what can investors do in the meantime ? Be patient and take one day at a time. As I have a long term horizon and the market has already dropped a lot, I did do some nibbling this past week, focusing on dividend payers with a good valuation such as $BMY, but I still have a large cash position overall as I don’t reckon it is time to go all in yet.
I have also increased my hedges, by upping my position on a double inverse SP500 by 50%. One might ask, why enter or increase a long position on a stock while at the same time increasing a short position ? The answer lies in the time horizon, once again. I invest long when there is upside potential in the long term (most of the times), whereas I introduce hedges when markets are volatile, therefore in the short term. If there is another drop next week, my loss will be reduced; if it goes up again, I will gain less but hedges are typically a smaller percentage of one’s portfolio so the loss is limited. In fact, I wish I could always lose on my hedges !!!
If you are interested in seeing what additional stocks I might get long on when the conditions are right, please keep reading my weekend updates !
Stay safe everyone and invest responsibly.
Despite the recent drop following Q1 2018 #earnings, Applied Materials, $AMAT, still looks like an attractive investment idea.
The reported earnings show very good growth in both the top and the bottom line, however the analysts were put off by the guidance provided during the conference call.
From a valuation point of view, the stock still looks cheap with a PEG ratio (5 years expected) well below unity as you can appreciate from Yahoo Finance.
Now that the stock is trading below the 200 days moving area it may be a good idea to see whether and how this sudden drop is temporary or the start of a downtrend prior to initiating any position or accumulating.