Tag: ECB

What does a rising 10-year yield mean for the stock market? | Responsible Investor Weekly Newsletter, September 23rd, 2023

Responsible Investor is a weekly newsletter and an Apple/Spotify podcast for those who are interested in investing responsibly. Go to responsibleinvestor.dk for more information and to read our disclaimer. This week’s newsletter is titled “What does a rising 10-year yield mean for the stock market?”, and was written on September 23rd, 2023.

Weekly summary in a paragraph

The US stock market indices finished markedly lower this week, as the Fed decided to pause interest rate hikes at its September FOMC meeting and the ‘dot plot’ alluded to a ‘higher-for longer’ monetary policy. The European stock market returned to losses on news of economic slowdown within the region and particularly in France. The 2-10y spread tightened slightly this week and is still inverted at -66 basis points. It was a slow news week in terms of economic data. In corporate news, both Stitch Fix and Fedex rose on a Q2 earnings beat while Kb Home slumped. Despite the vast majority of the S&P500 companies having now reported Q2 earnings, there are still notable ones due to be published next week such as Nike, Carnival, Micron and Costco. Accenture will report its Q3 earnings, also.

Asset classes weekly performance

This week the Dow finished -1.9% lower (+2.5% year to date) while the S&P500 lost -2.9% (+12.5% year to date), the Nasdaq gave up -3.6% (+26.2% year to date) and the Russell 2000 fell -3.8% (+0.9% year to date). Gold finished -0.4% lower (+1.0% year to date) while Silver gained +1.4% (-5.2% year to date). Crude Oil lost -0.3% (+19.8% year to date). The 10-y US treasury yield jumped +2.8% (+17.0% year to date). The European stock market gave up -2.5% (+10.0% year to date). The Euro lost -0.19% against the US Dollar (-0.58% year to date).

Weekly pitch

The risk-off experienced this week was driven by the sell-off in US bonds, particularly in the 10-year which reached the 4.5% yield mark. This is particularly negative for long duration stocks as their price to earnings ratio is harmed by rising yields. Long duration stocks include tech stocks as well as speculative stocks. Should the Fed continue to exert pressure on interest rates for longer this will end up hurting the stock market and reduce valuations. Responsible Investors should exercise caution and maintain a healthy proportion of their portfolio in cash and hedges as well as a diversified portfolio with some exposure to the European stock market and to emerging markets.

Weekly Portfolio Update

Here are this week’s movements: we have taken full profits on our Academy Sports and Outdoors short position (+9.8%) and partial profits on our Ross Stores short position (+6.1%) as well as our triple inverse Nasdaq ETF long position (+2.4%). Sells stops were trigger on our HRB short position. Cash, US treasury bills, precious metals and hedges amount to 39% in our portfolio (increased compared to last week).

Top 5 Weekly Portfolio Performers

ProShares UltraPro Short Russell 2000 +11.3% (3x inverse the Russell 2000)

iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures TM +10.7% (Volatility ETF)

ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ +8.8% (3x inverse the Nasdaq)

ProShares UltraPro Short Dow 30 +5.1% (3x inverse the Dow)

iShares Silver Trust +2.3% (Silver ETF)

Portfolio Asset Allocation

US stocks long positions 47% (increased)

EU stocks long positions 8.5% (unchanged)

Emerging markets long positions 4.5% (unchanged)

US stocks short positions 1.0% (reduced)

Hedges 7.5% (reduced)

Silver & Gold 2% (unchanged)

US Treasury bills 2% (unchanged)

Cash 27.5% (increased)

1-year Portfolio Performance

Our portfolio performance over the last 12 months is +13.2% (excl. dividends) vs the S&P500 gain of +15.0%.

Invest responsibly!!!

Did the ECB send a bullish signal to the stock market? | Responsible Investor Weekly Newsletter, September 16th, 2023

Responsible Investor is a weekly newsletter and an Apple/Spotify podcast for those who are interested in investing responsibly. Go to responsibleinvestor.dk for more information and to read our disclaimer. This week’s newsletter is titled “Did the ECB send a bullish signal to the stock market?”, and was written on September 16th, 2023.

Weekly summary in a paragraph

The US stock market indices finished mostly lower this week, except the Dow which rose marginally in a week which was affected by a significant sell-off on Friday despite the success of the ARM IPO. The European stock market ended its 6-week negative streak and returned to gains despite the euro continued weakness relative to the dollar. The ECB hiked interest rates by another 0.25%. The 2-10y spread tightened slightly this week and is still inverted at -69 basis points. In economic data, the core inflation (CPI) as well as the inflation at producer level (PPI) are running hotter than expected. Retails sales data were also strong which indicates further borrowing by the consumer. In corporate news, both Adobe and Lennar dipped despite beating Q2 earnings expectations. The launch of the new Apple models and the French ban on the iPhone 12 did not help the stock which fell this week. Despite the vast majority of the S&P500 companies having now reported Q2 earnings, there are still notable ones due to be published next week such as Stitch Fix, Autozone, General Mills, Fedex and Kb Home.

Asset classes weekly performance

This week the Dow finished +0.1% higher (+4.4% year to date) while the S&P500 lost -0.2% (+15.9% year to date), the Nasdaq gave up -0.4% (+31.0% year to date) and the Russell 2000 fell -0.2% (+4.9% year to date). Gold finished -0.1% lower (+1.0% year to date) while Silver lost -0.3% (-7.2% year to date). Crude Oil gained +4.5% (+20.3% year to date). The 10-y US treasury yield rose +0.8% (+14.0% year to date). The European stock market gained +0.8% (+12.9% year to date). The Euro lost -0.52% against the US Dollar (-0.45% year to date).

Weekly pitch

One of the ways central banks fight inflation is through increasing interest rates. Both the Fed and the ECB have been using this weapon over the past months. Following this week’s inflation data, there is now a 40% chance that the Fed will hike again in November. The ECB just hiked interest rates this week though the significant news is that it suggested it may be done for this cycle. This is a bullish signal for the stock market and also for the bonds of the EU member states. Responsible Investors should exercise caution and maintain a healthy proportion of their portfolio in cash and hedges as well as a diversified portfolio with some exposure to the European stock market and to emerging markets.

Weekly Portfolio Update

No movements this week. Cash, US treasury bills, precious metals and hedges amount to 38.5% in our portfolio (unchanged compared to last week). It was a good week for our precious metals stocks.

Top 5 Weekly Portfolio Performers

Sibanye Stillwater +16.7% (Precious metals)

ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ +5.3% (3x inverse the Nasdaq)

MP Materials +4.4% (Rare-earth materials)

Newmont Mining +3.6% (Precious metals)

Denbury Resources +3.3% (Oil)

Portfolio Asset Allocation

US stocks long positions 44.5% (unchanged)

EU stocks long positions 8.5% (unchanged)

Emerging markets long positions 4.5% (unchanged)

US stocks short positions 4.0% (unchanged)

Hedges 8.0% (unchanged)

Silver & Gold 2% (unchanged)

US Treasury bills 2% (unchanged)

Cash 26.5% (unchanged)

1-year Portfolio Performance

Our portfolio performance over the last 12 months is +11.8% (excl. dividends) vs the S&P500 gain of +14.1%.

Invest responsibly!!!

Will the US debt ceiling crisis hurt the stock market? | Responsible Investor Weekly Newsletter, May 20th, 2023

Responsible Investor is a weekly newsletter and an Apple/Spotify podcast for those who are interested in investing responsibly. Go to responsibleinvestor.dk for more information and to read our disclaimer. This week’s newsletter is titled “Will the US debt ceiling crisis hurt the stock market?”, and was written on May 20th, 2023.

Weekly summary in a paragraph

The US stock market indices finished higher this week, despite Friday’s sell-off triggered by US debt debate stalling, with the Nasdaq showing its strength thanks to AI bullishness. The European stock market also finished higher. The Japanese stock market index rose to levels not seen since August 1990 this week. The 2-10y spread continues to be range-bound and has an inverted value of -58 basis points. It was a slow week for economic data. In corporate news, Home Depot’s earnings disappointed with the biggest miss in 20 years, while Walmart beat expectations. In Europe, Siemens Energy rose on a 22% year-on-year turnover increase. While most S&P500 companies have now reported Q1 2023 earnings, there are still a few to watch next week including Nvidia, Low’s, Kohl’s and Dollar Tree.

Asset classes weekly performance

This week the Dow finished +0.4% higher (+0.8% year to date) while the S&P500 gained +1.65% (+9.2% year to date), the Nasdaq advanced +3.0% (+20.9% year to date) and the Russell 2000 appreciated by +1.9% (+0.7% year to date). Gold finished -2.1% lower (+5.4% year to date, we are long) while Silver lost -1.1% (-2-4% year to date). Oil gained +0.8% (-7.2% year to date). The 10-y US treasury yield rose +5.3% (-2.7% year to date). The European stock market finished +1.5% higher (+19.4% year to date). The Euro lost -0.4% against the US Dollar (+0.9% year to date).

Weekly pitch

Despite the alleged advances in the negotiations on the US debt ceiling this week, the crisis is yet to be resolved. Analysts maintain that a solution will be found but few discuss the drawbacks of this scenario. While the resolution of this crisis is key to ensure that the US administration continues to run smoothly, the risk the stock market faces is the drying up of liquidity as more bonds are issued to replenish the coffers. This risk is particularly significant for riskier assets, for example in the tech sector which has run a lot in 2023. Responsible investors should exercise caution and maintain a healthy proportion of their portfolio in cash and hedges as well as a diversified portfolio with some exposure to the European stock market.

Weekly Portfolio Update

Here are this week’s movements: we took profits on our Chipotle Mexican Grill (+23%) long position and the Five Below (+1%) short position; sell stops were triggered on our Newmont Mining long position as well as on the Adobe and Affirm short positions. We initiated a long positions on Foot Locker and a short position on Weight Watchers. Cash, precious metals and hedges amount to 41% in our portfolio (reduced compared to last week).

Top 5 Weekly Portfolio Performers

Range Resources +11.2% (Oil)

Halliburton +5.5% (Oilfield services & equipment)

Callon Petroleum +5.1% (Oil)

Meta +5.1% (Tech)

Google +4.5% (Tech)

Portfolio Asset Allocation

US Long stock positions 49.5% (increased)

EU Long stock positions 9.5% (unchanged)

US Short stock position 3.5% (reduced)

Hedges 7.5% (unchanged)

Silver & Gold 3% (unchanged)

Cash 27% (increased)

1-year Portfolio Performance

Our portfolio performance over the last 12 months is +9.7% (excl. dividends) vs the S&P500 gain of +7.5%, which corresponds to a +2.2% market beat.

Invest responsibly!!!

Why is Dr. Copper important for a healthy portfolio? | Responsible Investor Weekly Newsletter, May 13th, 2023

Responsible Investor is a weekly newsletter and an Apple/Spotify podcast for those who are interested in investing responsibly. Go to responsibleinvestor.dk for more information and to read our disclaimer. This week’s newsletter is titled “Why is Dr. Copper important for a healthy portfolio?”, and was written on May 13th, 2023.

Weekly summary in a paragraph

The US stock market indices finished mostly lower this week, with the exception of the Nasdaq, just like the previous week. The European stock market also finished lower but is still leading year to date, globally. The Bank of England raised interest rates again and stated that a recession is not expected in the UK. The 2-10y spread continues to be range-bound has an inverted value of -52 basis points. In terms of economic data, the CPI and the PPI indices published mid-week came in as expected, supporting the disinflation narrative. In corporate news, Disney disappointed while Li Auto beat expectations with a 66% year-on-year increase in car deliveries . While 92% of the S&P500 companies have now reported earnings, there are still a few to watch next week including Target, Walmart and Applied Materials.

Asset classes weekly performance

This week the Dow finished -1.1% lower (+0.5% year to date) while the S&P500 gave up -0.3% (+7.4% year to date), the Nasdaq advanced +0.4% (+17.4% year to date) and the Russell 2000 lost -1.1% (-1.2% year to date). Gold finished -1.34% lower (+7.34% year to date, we are long) while Silver tanked -6.8% (-1.9% year to date). Oil lost -4.9% (-9.3% year to date). The 10-y US treasury yield gave up -1.65% (-8.7% year to date). The European stock market finished -1.9% lower (+17.6% year to date). The Euro lost -1.5% against the US Dollar (+1.3% year to date).

Weekly pitch

Copper is such a critical metal for global economic growth, that over the years it has earned the title of “Doctor Copper”. Copper futures have been anticipating both bull and bear markets in the past, and many investors look at its price fluctuations with interest. After Covid hit, copper made higher lows and higher highs; this trend was broken in summer 2022 when, after peaking in March, its price made a lower low. The sharp decline this week could signal further pessimism in the global economy. Responsible investors should exercise caution and maintain a healthy proportion of their portfolio in cash and hedges as well as a diversified portfolio with some exposure to the European stock market. This week we have beaten the market, taken full profits on some long positions and initiated new long and short positions.

Weekly Portfolio Update

Here are this week’s movements: we took profits on our Silver ETF (+14.1%), Palantir Technologies (+9.9%), and AMD (+6.2%) long positions as well as on our Affirm (+7.6%) and Adobe (7.5%) short positions; partial sell stops were triggered on our Nasdaq ETF short position. We initiated a long positions on Tellurian and a short position on Affirm. Cash, precious metals and hedges amount to 41.5% in our portfolio (increased compared to last week).

Top 5 Weekly Portfolio Performers

Palantir Technologies +28.2% (Tech)

Google +11.0% (Tech)

AMD +6.0% (Semiconductors)

Fortinet +4.9% (Electronic Tech)

Orsted +4.1% (Renewable Energy)

Portfolio Asset Allocation

US Long stock positions 49% (reduced)

EU Long stock positions 9.5% (unchanged)

US Short stock position 4.5% (unchanged)

Hedges 7.5% (reduced)

Silver & Gold 3% (reduced)

Cash 26.5% (increased)

1-year Portfolio Performance

Our portfolio performance over the last 12 months is +6.1% (excl. dividends) vs the S&P500 gain of +4.9%, which corresponds to a +1.2% market beat.

Invest responsibly!!!

Which key word did Fed Chair Powell not utter? | Responsible Investor Weekly Newsletter, May 6th, 2023

Responsible Investor is a weekly newsletter and an Apple/Spotify podcast for those who are interested in investing responsibly. Go to responsibleinvestor.dk for more information and to read our disclaimer. This week’s newsletter is titled “Which key word did Fed Chair Powell not utter?”, and was written on May 6th, 2023.

Weekly summary in a paragraph

The US stock market indices finished mostly lower this week, with the exception of the Nasdaq which managed to gain a meager 0.1%. The week was dominated by the FOMC meeting which confirmed the 0.25% increase in interest rate, as expected. There was one key word which the Fed’s chair Powell did not utter, though: “pause”. In other words, the Fed will keep making decisions on the basis of economic data, and is not prepared to commit to this latest increase being the last in the cycle. The European stock market finished higher and is still leading year to date, globally, despite this week’s ECB rate hike. The 2-10y spread reversed its trend and reduced the gap to an inverted value of -48 basis points. In terms of economic data, the ISM index published on Monday was slightly better than consensus, and the jobs report came in stronger than expected on Friday. In corporate news, Apple beat earnings and saved the market from an even deeper weekly loss, though this is the second quarter in a row that Apple revenue has decreased. Next week more S&P500 companies report earnings, including Paypal, Airbnb and Disney.

Asset classes weekly performance

This week the Dow finished -1.24% lower (+1.6% year to date) while the S&P500 gave up -0.8% (+7.7% year to date), the Nasdaq advanced +0.1% (+16.9% year to date) and the Russell 2000 lost -0.5% (-0.1% year to date). Gold finished +0.1% higher (+7.8% year to date, we are long) while Silver gained +1.21% (+5.4% year to date, we are long). Oil lost -0.5% (-7.7% year to date). The 10-y US treasury yield gave up -0.2% (-9.2% year to date). The European stock market gained +0.2% (+19.9% year to date). The Euro appreciated +0.11% against the US Dollar (+2.92% year to date).

Weekly pitch

Strong economic data and the Fed’s refusal to pivot were responsible for a negative week. While the quarter percentage point rate hike was largely expected, the market was looking for the Fed to confirm that no further hikes were planned, and were therefore disappointed by Powell’s words during the press conference. Despite the proximity of the war in Ukraine, the performance of the European stock market and of the Euro keeps being superior relative to the US indices and the US dollar. Responsible investors should exercise caution and maintain a healthy proportion of their portfolio in cash and hedges as well as a diversified portfolio with some exposure to the European stock market. This week we have beaten the market, taken full profits on long positions and initiated new long positions.

Weekly Portfolio Update

Here are this week’s movements: we took profits on our Arconic Corporation (+17%), Electronic Arts (+10.6%) and Sanofi (+9.1%) long positions; sell stops were triggered on our Capri Holdings and on the US Banks ETF long positions. We initiated long positions on Plug, Restaurants Brands International and AMD. Cash, precious metals and hedges amount to 41% in our portfolio (increased compared to last week).

Top 5 Weekly Portfolio Performers

Arconic Corporation +17.4% (Aluminum)

Rational +7.8% (Industrial Machinery)

Sibanye Stillwater +7.4% (Precious Metals)

Davide Campari +4.6% (Alcoholic Beverages)

Marriot International +4.3% (Hotels & Leisure)

Portfolio Asset Allocation

US Long stock positions 49.5% (reduced)

EU Long stock positions 9.5% (reduced)

US Short stock position 4.5% (increased)

Hedges 8% (increased)

Silver & Gold 3.5% (unchanged)

Cash 25% (unchanged)

1-year Portfolio Performance

Our portfolio performance over the last 12 months is +5.2% (excl. dividends) vs the S&P500 loss of -0.3%, which corresponds to a +5.5% market beat.

Invest responsibly!!!

Earnings surprise! What to do now | Responsible Investor Weekly Newsletter, April 29th, 2023

Responsible Investor is a weekly newsletter and an Apple/Spotify podcast for those who are interested in investing responsibly. Go to responsibleinvestor.dk for more information and to read our disclaimer. This week’s newsletter is titled “Earnings surprise! What to do now”, and was written on April 29th, 2023.

Weekly summary in a paragraph

The US stock market indices finished higher this week, though the Russell 2000 didn’t participate. Q1 GDP data published this week reported a 1.1% growth in the US while the Europe area stopped at 0.1%, and avoided a recession by a hair. The European stock market saw an end to multi-week gains but is still leading year to date, globally. The 2-10y spread was flat and is still inverted at -60 basis points. Oil now in negative territory after the first four months of 2023. In terms of economic data, March headline and core PCE inflation came in mostly in line. Personal income and spending for March was reported slightly higher than expected. In corporate news, mega cap companies like Microsoft and Meta smashed Q1 2023 earnings, Alphabet reported a beat while Amazon’s guidance underwhelmed. Many other long positions in our portfolio reported an earnings beat this week, Chipotle and Fielmann above all. Next week 126 S&P500 companies report earnings, including AMD, Apple and Novo Nordisk.

Asset classes weekly performance

This week the Dow finished +0.86% higher (+2.9% year to date) while the S&P500 gained +0.87% (+8.6% year to date), the Nasdaq advanced +1.28% (+16.8% year to date) and the Russell 2000 lost -1.26% (+0.4% year to date). Gold finished flat (+6.5% year to date, we are long) while Silver lost -0.74% (+3.0% year to date, we are long). Oil tanked -2.7% (-0.8% year to date). The 10-y US treasury yield gave up -1.79% (-9.0% year to date). The European stock market lost -0.4% (+19.7% year to date). The Euro gained +0.24% against the US Dollar (+2.9% year to date).

Weekly pitch

The earnings estimate for the S&P500 companies in Q1 2023 was just over 50$, in aggregate, at the beginning of the earnings season. After 222 companies reported so far that number has increased by 2.5%. If this increase is representative of the other half which will report in May, the overall figure may increase to 54-55$, ie one of the largest in recent years. It is important to note, however, that the year to date increase on the index is led by very few companies, therefore now more than ever before it is a stock picker’s market. Until more earnings data is available over the next couple of weeks, responsible investors should exercise caution and maintain a healthy proportion of their portfolio in cash and hedges. Analysts now believe that another quarter point rate hike will happen at next week’s FOMC meeting, with an 86% probability. This week we have taken full or partial profits on long and short positions and initiated new long positions.

Weekly Portfolio Update

Here are this week’s movements: we took profits on our Eli Lilly (+13.9%) long position, on our Snapchat (+2.6%) and Pinterest (+16%) short positions and partial profits on our Microsoft (+15.3%), Halliburton (+4.5%), Raytheon Technologies (+4.3%), Sibanye Stillwater (+4.2%) and Capri Holdings (+3.6%) long positions. We initiated long positions on three Chinese ETFs. Cash, precious metals and hedges amount to 40% in our portfolio (increased compared to last week).

Top 5 Weekly Portfolio Performers

Fielmann +16.43% (Medical Specialties)

Chipotle Mexican Grill +14.87% (Restaurants)

Meta +12.88% (Technology Services)

Microsoft +7.52% (Technology Services)

Centene +4.46% (Managed Healthcare)

Portfolio Asset Allocation

US Long stock positions 50% (reduced)

EU Long stock positions 10% (unchanged)

US Short stock position 4% (reduced)

Hedges 7.5% (unchanged)

Silver & Gold 3.5% (reduced)

Cash 25% (increased)

1-year Portfolio Performance

Our portfolio performance over the last 12 months is +4.2% (excl. dividends) vs the S&P500 loss of -2.8%, which corresponds to a +7.0% market beat.

Invest responsibly!!!

The Fed’s Beige Book: read or ignore? | Responsible Investor Weekly Newsletter, April 22nd, 2023

$WWE $HAL $EA $SDOW $SNAP $ADBE $FIVE $ACIW $XLV $AAPL $SNY $GOOG $QQQ $RTX $CPR.MI $SAND.ST $AMZN $WSM $NVDA $DEN $LIT $QCOM $BRK.B $NUE $DIS $MP $GL $WMT $TGT $GILD $CNC $SH $GLD $SLV $SON $NEM $HLT $NXPI $DEN $GPS $JPM $CMG $MSFT $META $BWA $LEA $PSQ $SRTY $SQQQ

Responsible Investor is a weekly newsletter and an Apple/Spotify podcast for those who are interested in investing responsibly. Go to responsibleinvestor.dk for more information and to read our disclaimer. This week’s newsletter is titled “The Fed’s Beige Book: read or ignore?”, and was written on April 22nd, 2023.

Weekly summary in a paragraph

The US stock market indices finished mildly lower this week, with the exception of the Russell 2000. In the UK, the latest economic data revealed that inflation is still high: this report spooked global markets on Wednesday. The European stock market finished higher again this week, and is now up 20% year to date. The 2-10y spread increased and is still inverted at -60 basis points: this corresponds to a 22 basis points increase in the past month. In corporate news, Tesla tanked on Thursday as more price cuts were announced and Q1 2023 earnings showed a significant reduction in profit margin. Netflix also disappointed reporting weaker-than-expected results. Procter & Gamble, conversely, beat on both the top and the bottom line, thanks to price hikes which meant that the company could pass the impact of inflation on to its customers (we are long). Next week is very busy in terms of earnings as mega cap tech companies report: by the end of the week, more than 40% of the S&P500 companies will have reported, allowing to draw some initial conclusions on the Q1 2023 earnings.

Asset classes weekly performance

This week the Dow finished -0.2% lower (+2.0% year to date) while the S&P500 lost -0.1% (+7.7% year to date), the Nasdaq gave up -0.4% (+15.3% year to date) and the Russell 2000 advanced +0.6% (+1.7% year to date). Gold finished -1.3% lower (+6.2% year to date, we are long) while Silver lost -0.4% (+3.1% year to date, we are long). Oil tanked -3.7% (+0.9% year to date). The 10-y US treasury yield finished flat (-5.9% year to date). The European stock market rose +0.5% (+20.2% year to date). The Euro finished flat against the US Dollar (+2.6% year to date).

Weekly pitch

Perhaps the most significant piece of economic news this week consisted in the Fed’s Beige Book, which was published on Wednesday. The main takeaway message in it was the fact that the loan demand dropped significantly in the US. Its relevance arises from the implicit indication that slower economic activity is expected, therefore. This, in turn, suggests an increased risk of negative impact on earnings and on the stock market. Analysts now believe that another quarter point rate hike will happen at the May FOMC meeting, with an 86% probability. Until more earnings data is available over the next couple of weeks, responsible investors should exercise caution and maintain a healthy proportion of their portfolio in cash and hedges. This week we have beaten the market again and have initiated new long and short positions.

Weekly Portfolio Update

Here are this week’s movements: we took profits on our EOG Resources long position (+10.5%) and partial profits on our Google long position (+7.9%). We initiated long positions on Rational and Fielmann, and added to our Range Resources and Berkshire Hathaway long positions; we also initiated a short position on XPO Logistics and on World Wrestling Entertainment. Cash, precious metals and hedges amount to 39% in our portfolio (unchanged compared to last week).

Top 5 Weekly Portfolio Performers

Essilor Luxottica +5.73% (Medical Specialties)

Sibanye Stillwater +4.75% (Precious Metals)

Mariott International +3.75% (Hotels & Leisure)

Chipotle Mexican Grill +3.55% (Restaurants)

Procter & Gamble +3.36% (Consumer non durables)

Portfolio Asset Allocation

US Long stock positions 51% (reduced)

EU Long stock positions 10% (increased)

US Short stock position 4.5% (unchanged)

Hedges 7.5% (unchanged)

Silver & Gold 5% (unchanged)

Cash 22% (unchanged)

1-year Portfolio Performance

Our portfolio performance over the last 12 months is +2.4% (excl. dividends) vs the S&P500 loss of -5.9%, which corresponds to a +8.3% market beat.

Invest responsibly!!!

Is disinflation a precursor of a recession? | Responsible Investor Weekly Newsletter, April 15th, 2023

$WWE $DXCM $HAL $EA $SDOW $SNAP $ADBE $FIVE $ACIW $XLV $AAPL $SNY $GOOG $QQQ $RTX $CPR.MI $SAND.ST $AMZN $WSM $NVDA $DEN $LIT $QCOM $BRK.B $NUE $DIS $MP $GL $WMT $TGT $GILD $CNC $SH $GLD $SLV $SON $NEM $HLT $NXPI $DEN $GPS $JPM $CMG $MSFT $META $BWA $LEA $PSQ $SRTY $SQQQ

Responsible Investor is a weekly newsletter and an Apple/Spotify podcast for those who are interested in investing responsibly. Go to responsibleinvestor.dk for more information and to read our disclaimer. This week’s newsletter is titled “Is disinflation a precursor of a recession?”, and was written on April 15th, 2023.

Weekly summary in a paragraph

The US stock market indices finished higher for the week, despite a sell-off on Friday. The main catalyst consisted in the declining PPI data published on Thursday, just a day after the CPI report came in cooler-than-expected. The European stock market continued to show its strength and so did the Euro. The 2-10y spread finished flat and is still inverted at -56 basis points. In corporate news, Tesla announced a series of price cuts in the US and three of the major US banks (JP Morgan, Citigroup and Wells Fargo) were the first to report a Q1 2023 earnings beat this week, with JP Morgan results being the most impressive. The earnings season kicks off in earnest next week: any significant misses may exert pressure on the market.

Asset classes weekly performance

This week the Dow finished +1.2% higher (+2.2% year to date) while the S&P500 gained+0.7% (+7.7% year to date), the Nasdaq rose +0.3% (+15.8% year to date) and the Russell 2000 advanced +1.5% (+1.1% year to date). Gold finished +0.7% higher (+7.5% year to date, we are long) while Silver gained +2.2% (+4.3% year to date, we are long). Oil was +3.7% higher (+6.9% year to date). The 10-y US treasury yield gained +3.1% (-7.1% year to date). The European stock market rose +0.7% (+16.8% year to date). The Euro finished +0.76% higher against the US Dollar (+2.7% year to date).

Weekly pitch

The economic data published this week supports the disinflation narrative and leaves the Fed in the challenging position of timing the pivot correctly, if that’s at all possible: not too early to avoid inflation picking up again, and not too late to risk sending the economy into a deep recession. While a recession in late 2023 or early 2024 seems to be in the cards, the real question is how severe it may be and how long it may last. Thankfully not everything is in the hands of the monetary policy makers: the Q1 2023 earnings and especially the future earnings forecasts will provide an objective read of the state of publicly traded companies. Ultimately, it is the growth in earnings that has pushed the markets higher over the decades. Responsible investors should keep an eye on their positions during the earnings seasons, and adjust their portfolio depending on how the companies they have invested in guide for future quarters. This week we have beaten the market again and have deployed some cash.

Weekly Portfolio Update

Here are this week’s movements: we took partial profits on our Newmont Mining long position (+7.4%) and exited our Coinbase short position with a nominal gain; a sell stop was triggered on our Dexcom short position. Cash, precious metals and hedges amount to 39% in our portfolio (reduced compared to last week).

Top 5 Weekly Portfolio Performers

Palantir +8.90% (Tech)

JP Morgan +8.83% (Banking)

Callon Petroleum +7.57% (Oil)

Freeport McMoRan +7.12% (Non-energy minerals)

BorgWarner +5.80% (Automotive)

Portfolio Asset Allocation

US Long stock positions 52% (increased)

EU Long stock positions 9% (unchanged)

US Short stock position 4.5% (increased)

Hedges 7.5% (unchanged)

Silver & Gold 5% (unchanged)

Cash 22% (reduced)

1-year Portfolio Performance

Our portfolio performance over the last 12 months is +0.1% (excl. dividends) vs the S&P500 loss of -5.8%, which corresponds to a +5.9% market beat.

Invest responsibly!!!

OIL PRODUCTION CUT AND THE SPECTRE OF STAGFLATION | Responsible Investor Weekly Newsletter, April 8th, 2023

Responsible Investor is a weekly newsletter and an Apple/Spotify podcast for those who are interested in investing responsibly. Go to responsibleinvestor.dk for more information and to read our disclaimer. This week’s newsletter is titled “Oil production cut and the spectre of stagflation”, and was written on April 8th, 2023.

Weekly summary in a paragraph

The US stock market indices were mixed in a 4-day week of trading which was dominated by the surprise oil production cut by OPEC (more in the weekly pitch). Economic data included the ISM manufacturing PMI on Monday and non-manufacturing PMI on Wednesday which both missed, and the March nonfarm payroll data which came in near expectations on Friday. The European stock market continued to show its strength and so did the Euro. The 2-10y spread finished flat at -52 basis points. In corporate news, Fedex announced a restructuring and General Motors overtook Toyota as the top US automaker last year. Next week the Q1 2023 earnings season kicks off: any significant misses may result in another market leg down.

Asset classes weekly performance

This week the Dow finished +0.7% higher (+1.02% year to date) while the S&P500 lost -0.1% (+6.9% year to date), the Nasdaq gave up -1.1% (+15.5% year to date) and the Russell 2000 tanked -2.5% (-0.39% year to date, we have a 3x inverse position). Gold finished +1.8% higher (+7.8% year to date, we are long) while Silver gained +3.4% (+3.0% year to date, we are long). Oil was +6.5% higher (+4.05% year to date). The 10-y US treasury yield lost -6.1% (-13.3% year to date). The European stock market gained +0.7% (+16.8% year to date). The Euro finished +0.7% higher against the US Dollar (+1.84% year to date).

Weekly pitch

Rumour has it that OPEC decided to cut oil production by 1.6 million barrels as a reaction to Biden’s decision to not refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). For us investors the main consequence is that this is an inflationary move which comes at a rather delicate time: will it delay the Fed’s pivot? The main reason inflation has cooled off lately is that energy prices have come down from the 2022 cycle highs: if oil prices go up, the risk of stagflation will increase and this may contract earnings. Last week we went over the strong link that exists between earnings and stock prices, hence prudence is of the essence. In order to protect themselves on the downside, responsible investors should raise cash, buy hedges (including precious metals and carefully selected corporate bonds) and be well-diversified.

Weekly Portfolio Update

Here are this week’s movements: we took profit on our World Wrestling Entertainment long position (+3.0%). Cash, precious metals and hedges amount to 39.5% in our portfolio (unchanged compared to last week).

Top 5 Weekly Portfolio Performers

Ely Lilly & Co. +7.24% (Pharmaceuticals)

ProShares UltraPro Short Russell 2000 +8.11% (3x short the Russell 2000)

Newmont Mining +6.18% (Precious metals mining)

Denbury Resources +5.84% (Oil)

Callon Petroleum +5.80% (Oil)

Portfolio Asset Allocation

US Long stock positions 51.5% (unchanged)

EU Long stock positions 9% (unchanged)

US Short stock position 4% (increased)

Hedges 7.5% (unchanged)

Silver & Gold 5% (unchanged)

Cash 23% (reduced)

1-year Portfolio Performance

Our portfolio performance over the last 12 months is -1.5% (excl. dividends) vs the S&P500 loss of -8.8%, which corresponds to a +7.3% market beat.

Invest responsibly!!!

Declining earnings alert! | Responsible Investor Weekly Newsletter, April 1st, 2023

Responsible Investor is a weekly newsletter and an Apple/Spotify podcast for those who are interested in investing responsibly. Go to responsibleinvestor.dk for more information and to read our disclaimer. This week’s newsletter is titled “Declining earnings alert!”, and was written on April 1st, 2023.

Weekly summary in a paragraph

The US stock market indices rallied this week, enough that they all finished positive for the quarter. The Nasdaq had the best quarter since 2020. The European stock market staged an even stronger gain and has now more than doubled its year to date return compared to the US stock market; in fact, since the mid-October 2022 bottom, the European stock market is up 36% versus a 10% gain by the S&P500. The PCE core inflation data published on Friday was slightly softer than expected, which helped the rally. Next week more economic data are due, including the ISM manufacturing on Monday and the ISM services on Wednesday. The banking sector borrowing continued and so did outflows in deposits, albeit at a slower pace than in recent weeks. The 2-10y spread reversed and reached -58 basis points, corresponding to a 20 basis points drop: these are not small changes. In corporate news, both Electronic Arts and Roku announced cuts of their respective workforce by 6%.

Asset classes weekly performance

This week the Dow finished +3.22% higher (+0.38% year to date) while the S&P500 gained +3.48% (+7.0% year to date), the Nasdaq rose +3.37% (+16.8% year to date) and the Russell 2000 appreciated +3.89% (+2.34% year to date). Gold finished -0.1% lower (+4.9% year to date, we are long) while Silver gained +4.71% (-0.7% year to date). Oil was +3.97% higher (-2.11% year to date). The 10-y US treasury yield lost -0.96% (-7.88% year to date). The European stock market gained +5% (+16.2% year to date). The Euro finished +0.64% higher against the US Dollar (+1.3% year to date).

Weekly pitch

Stock prices follow earnings and earnings expectations. Analysts continuously track earnings forecasts for all S&P500 companies: this enables to determine a bottom-up target price for the index. Over the past 3 months, the 2023 S&P500 target price has declined and is now 221.5$; with a current price of 4040$, the P/E multiple of the S&P500 is just over 18. According to Facset, the cut in the forecasted Q1 2023 earnings per share is the largest recorded in the 5-year, 10-year, 15-year and 20-year average. The earnings decline and the credit crisis are two reasons to stay nimble if you are invested in the stock market. In order to protect yourself on the downside, responsible investors should raise cash, buy hedges (including precious metals and carefully selected corporate bonds) and be well-diversified.

Weekly Portfolio Update

Here are this week’s movements: we initiated a new short position on Dexcom. Cash, precious metals and hedges amount to 39.5% in our portfolio (unchanged compared to last week).

Top 5 Weekly Portfolio Performers

Gap +11.56% (Retail)

Sandvik +9.74% (Construction Machinery)

Denbury Resources +8.57% (Oil)

Freeport McMoRan +7.63% (Non energy minerals)

World Wresting Entertainment +7.43% (Consumer services)

Portfolio Asset Allocation

US Long stock positions 51.5% (unchanged)

EU Long stock positions 9% (unchanged)

US Short stock position 3.5% (increased)

Hedges 7.5% (unchanged)

Silver & Gold 5% (unchanged)

Cash 23.5% (reduced)

1-year Portfolio Performance

Our portfolio performance over the last 12 months is -2.4% (excl. dividends) vs the S&P500 loss of -9.3%, which corresponds to a +6.9% market beat.

Invest responsibly!!!