I was on holidays for the last two weeks and while I took a break from the weekly blog, I kept an eye on the markets and even sent three buy alerts over this period. So much has happened within the span of a fortnight, from the worsening of the pandemic in the US, to the diplomatic tension between the US and China and the start of the earnings season. While the first two may offer an excuse for a correction, all eyes are on earnings which will be the reality check for this frothy market.
Two months have passed since the inception of the Responsible Investor Portfolio and we are still in the black with a total return of 1.9% (excluding dividends) whereas the market is up 1.3% (0.6% market beat).
The majority of our 18 portfolio positions are traded in European currencies whereas 43% is in USD. Over the last two weeks the USD has lost 4.4% vs the Euro and this impacts on our portfolio on which I report in USD.
We initiated a position in Tencent the week before last and also one in the Italian contractor WeBuild (previously trading as Salini). Following the approval of the EU Recovery Fund and a positive technical signal, I also sent a buy alert for an ETF which reproduces the price of a selection of European dividend stocks and is traded on the Italian stock market, EUDV.MI.
The table below summarises the portfolio performance since inception.
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Seven winners this past week ! Out of these, 3 were opened and closed in the same week and the rest I owned since earlier in 2020.
The top 3 winners where $CSX with a 10% gain in 5 days, $VIAV with a 5.01% gain in 2 weeks and $RR.L with a 4.90% gain in one day. While the future remains uncertain for Rolls Royce, I will look for opportunities to go back into CSX Transportation in the near future; also we still hold a 2% position on Viavi Solutions.
This week we have also gone back into Coca Cola (ticker: $KO ) which is a long term investment. The stock has dropped a lot and seems to have now stabilised with a potential breakout in sight. The dividend yield is 3.6% at these valuations and the stock goes ex-dividend early in June.
Aroundtown (ticker: $AT1.DE ) has been badly hit during this corona virus crisis, just like most of the real estate companies. We have previously invested in $AT1.DE and made a decent profit out of it. As the sector stabilises, it seems a good moment to go back in as it offers capital appreciation potential and sports a 5.2% dividend.
Just as the sentiment was turning on Thursday, I added to my $SQQQ position which played out really well as a hedge: the US markets were down between 2.5 and 3.2% on Friday, whereas my eToro portfolio was only down 0.39%. This highlights the importance of having hedges in times of volatility as the market can quickly change its course.
At this time, I am 58% in cash and have 5% in hedges (inverse ETF): if you don’t have enough cash, you won’t be able to take advantage of bargain stocks that will come your way in the future.
If you want to find out about all the positions in my eToro portfolio follow this link.
Verizon (ticker: $VZ ) has been a great investment for me so far, I have owned it for about 2 years now. It is one of the value stocks which offers both a solid dividend (>4%) and capital appreciation.
It is considered a 5G play and its deal with $DIS related to Disney+ has helped it soar.
Verizon is a mega cap, with a market value of 240B $. It currently trades at 58.13$ and it was trading at about 48$ when I bought it. This means a 20+% capital appreciation which outperformed the SP500 by 15 percentage points over the same period. And then you have to add the dividend, which was about 5% at the start of my investment and is now 4.28%. American stocks typically pay dividends out on a quarterly basis which gives you the option of re-investing more frequently than, say, most European stocks which pay a dividend on a yearly basis.
In terms of valuation, the stock is actually quite pricey at the moment and the projected total return over the next 5 years, including dividend, is of 41%. There are plenty of better valued stocks out there which offer a greater growth potential (even >100%), like $AMZN and $TSLA, but you probably want to combine more aggressive plays with other less volatile investments in order to stabilise your portfolio. In 2008, when the market was down 38.5%, Verizon was “only” down 21%. So far in 2020 Verizon is down 7% compared to a 15% fall of the SP500.
The stock has had a steep recover from the late March lows and is now trading above the 5 and the 50 moving average, with the 200 moving average within grasp.
It reports earnings for Q1 of 2020 on Friday the 24th of April. Consensus estimates are EPS of $1.22 and revenue of $32.37B.
If you want to see all the positions of one of my portfolios, you are welcome to follow me on eToro here.
Another week in red has gone by, with the three major US stock market indices losing between 1.7 and 2.6%.
Perhaps the most significant development, however, relates to the price of #oil which has finally seen a spike from the lows of the beginning of the week. This is thanks to the expectation that the major producers may soon agree to cut production which should better align supply with the reduced demand. I have tried to play this with a very short term trade but didn’t actually succeed as I sold my $USO position too quickly with a marginal loss. It has taught me another lesson about how pointless short term trades can be, at least for me, as I am fundamentally a long term investor. Always invest in what you understand ! I did however benefit from a 12% gain in my Occidental (ticker $OXY ) position.
This week I have started a new long position in ConAgra Foods (ticker is $CAG ): I don’t expect it to work wonders, as it is a value stock, but to actually provide a single to low teens return within the next year or so and therefore some stability to my portfolio. I have bought it on Tuesday and have already achieved a 4.28% gain. It also pays a 2.8% dividend and the next quarterly ex-dividend date is expected in late April. I felt the timing was right as they have increased their guidance and now see FY20 adjusted EPS earnings per share above the high end of $2 to $2.07.
A similar investment made earlier in March is in General Mills (ticker is $GIS ) which this week has gained 9.4% !
Here is a simple graph created with Yahoo Finance to compare these two stocks with the three major US indices for this past week. How did your portfolio fare compared to them?
I currently have 14 long positions in my eToro portfolio and 9 out of 14 have beaten the US market this past week. Ultimately, beating the market is the most important goal.
Be an active investor and invest responsibly.
Have a great weekend, all !
Accenture ($ACN) provides management consulting, technology, and outsourcing services and is normally among the first companies reporting earnings at the beginning of each quarter: I find their earnings more interesting than those of Alcoa which have traditionally been considered as the start of the earnings period.
The company reported an earnings beat for Q3 on June 28th for both EPS and revenue. Guidance was reported as being in-line with expectations. Earnings misses are rare for $ACN and the company forecasts more top- and bottom-line growth in the quarters ahead.
The company is now up 8% YTD and has beaten the market over the years doubling its value over the last 5 years and tripling its value over the last 10 years. Despite these capital appreciation figures, it also yields a 1.6% dividend to its investors.
Here is a snapshot of their operations as of the first half of 2018:
Accenture is a global leader in the digital transformation and is also seen by some as a #blockchain play.