Silver has entered a period of extreme volatility, marked by a rapid surge followed by sharp reversals. Prices accelerated from the high 90s to above 117 in a very short span as clustered stop losses from short sellers were triggered. Once those stops were cleared, aggressive options buying intensified the move, forcing dealers to hedge by buying silver-related instruments. This dynamic fueled a classic gamma squeeze. After peaking, silver quickly retreated toward the low 100s as the squeeze ran out of momentum, inviting short sellers back into the market. Renewed pressure has since led to another round of squeezes, keeping volatility elevated.
Speculation and unverified rumors are amplifying the frenzy, drawing momentum-driven traders into precious metals and mining assets, while more disciplined investors remain cautious. Outside commodities, equity markets showed resilience. Despite fresh tariff threats toward South Korea, investors dismissed the rhetoric and pushed Korean stocks to new highs, driven by enthusiasm around AI-related demand for semiconductor memory. This optimism spilled into U.S.-listed memory and storage names ahead of key earnings reports.
In the U.S., weakness in the Dow was largely attributable to a sharp decline in a major health insurer following disappointing earnings and regulatory pressure on Medicare Advantage pricing. Upcoming consumer confidence data could further influence market direction. Key names in focus include $SLV, $GLD, $MU, $WDC, and $UNH.
Gold has surged decisively above its magnet, signaling strong momentum but also flashing warning signs. Prices are now far above the 200-day moving average, and RSI readings show gold is overbought and vulnerable to a pullback. Silver is also racing higher, driven by an aggressive short squeeze. Retail momentum traders are piling into precious metals and mining assets, while more cautious investors are staying on the sidelines.
The immediate catalyst for the move in metals is a sharp surge in the Japanese yen. Japanese and U.S. officials signaled readiness to intervene against currency speculation, prompting yen strength and a decline in Japanese equities, with the Nikkei falling sharply. Lower Japanese bond yields provided some offset, but the yen’s move is weighing on U.S. stocks, particularly technology shares, due to the unwinding risk in yen-funded carry trades. The overall impact remains nuanced, as some global funds are hedged against currency swings while others are not.
Geopolitically, renewed tariff threats toward Canada briefly pressured equities before easing as Canada stepped back from a potential China trade deal. Attention now turns to the upcoming Fed decision and a heavy earnings calendar, led by major technology companies and AI-linked demand trends. Durable goods data surprised to the upside, offering a supportive macro backdrop. Key tickers to watch include $GLD, $SLV, $AAPL, $TSLA, and $NVDA.
Silver is seeing a powerful surge, with prices approaching the psychologically important $100 magnet. Gold is also climbing and is now close to its own major magnet near $5,000, reinforcing the broader move into precious metals. The sharp rally in silver is being driven by two forces: a wave of capital rotating out of stalled cryptocurrencies and an aggressive short squeeze. This shift highlights how momentum-driven investors often migrate to whatever asset is moving fastest, amplifying short-term price action.
U.S. equities have stalled in early trading following a hawkish tone from the Bank of Japan. While rates were left unchanged, higher inflation projections and a stronger yen are creating anxiety around the yen carry trade, which has historically had an outsized impact on U.S. markets. With Japan heading toward a snap election in early February, currency volatility remains a key risk factor.
Speculation is also building around a potential SpaceX IPO, which could become one of the largest listings ever and reshape sentiment across growth and innovation stocks. In semiconductors, memory-related names continue to rise on pricing rumors despite official denials, showing how sensitive the sector remains to supply narratives.
Meanwhile, Intel shares are under pressure after lowered guidance tied to capacity constraints, while broader market focus now turns to the upcoming Fed meeting and fresh consumer sentiment data.
Key tickers to watch include $SI_F, $GLD, $TSLA, $MU, and $INTC.
U.S. stocks are consolidating just below a key technical magnet, suggesting underlying strength despite the lack of a breakout. Importantly, momentum indicators show the market is not overbought, increasing the odds of a push higher if supportive catalysts emerge. However, the latest December jobs report has complicated the Federal Reserve’s path. Payroll growth came in slightly below expectations, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.4%, a level that makes an immediate rate cut more difficult even as markets continue to price one in.
Outside of macro data, major corporate and policy developments are shaping sector leadership. Meta announced an aggressive, long-term commitment to nuclear power, signing multi-decade energy agreements and supporting new reactor development. This highlights how AI-driven power demand is increasingly influencing capital allocation and energy strategy.
Housing is another focal point. President Trump directed government-sponsored enterprises to purchase large amounts of mortgage bonds to stimulate home buying. While housing starts disappointed, stronger building permits suggest builders remain optimistic, supported by the prospect of lower mortgage rates.
Geopolitically, oil markets remain sensitive to U.S. policy in Venezuela, while tensions in Asia are rising as China restricts rare earth exports to Japan. These crosscurrents underscore why markets remain resilient but cautious near current levels.
Responsible Investor is a weekly newsletter and an Apple/Spotify podcast for those who are interested in investing responsibly. Go to responsibleinvestor.dk for more information and to read our disclaimer. This week’s newsletter is titled “Was this week’s rally justified?”, and was written on November 11th, 2023.
Weekly summary in a paragraph
The US stock market indices were mostly higher this week, despite somewhat hawkish commentary from chair Powell and a weak US bond auction. Small caps lagged and which finished significantly lower. The European stock market managed to stay afloat despite more companies missing earnings estimates and warning about lower full-year profits. The 2-10y spread continues to widen this week after the trend reversal experienced in late October and is still inverted at -41 basis points. There was nothing incremental in terms economic data. In corporate news, Disney and Gilead Sciences published strong earnings reports while The Trade Desk disappointed. Next week more Q3 earnings will come in, as companies such as Home Depot, Target, Palo Alto Networks, Applied Materials and The Gap report.
Asset classes weekly performance
This week the Dow finished +0.7% higher (+3.4% year to date) while the S&P500 gained +1.3% (+15.0% year to date), the Nasdaq rose +2.4% (+31.8% year to date) and the Russell 2000 gave up -3.2% (-3.2% year to date). Gold slid -2.2% (+0.9% year to date) while Silver tanked -4.0% (-11.2% year to date). Crude Oil dropped -4.3% (+3.2% year to date). The 10-y US treasury yield lost -0.7% (+22.0% year to date). The European stock market gained +0.9% (+11.6% year to date). The Euro lost -0.43% against the US Dollar (-0.22% year to date).
Weekly pitch
It was not a very convincing week as the markets rallied with no significant news to justify the move. In fact, hawkish statements by Powell and a poor auction would have suggested a drop from last week’s levels. From a technical perspective, the Dow is very close to a death cross and if the S&P500 and the Nasdaq are not able to keep up the recent momentum, they too will be in a similar position. Next week the all-important CPI and PPI reports will be published: these have the potential to be market movers and are closely watched by the Fed who, together with labour market report, use this data to define their monetary policy. Responsible Investors should exercise caution and maintain a healthy proportion of their portfolio in cash and hedges as well as a diversified portfolio with some exposure to the European stock marketand to emerging markets.
Weekly Portfolio Update
Here are this week’s movements: stop losses were triggered on our Denbury Resources long position and on our XPO Logistics short position.Cash, US treasury bills, precious metals and hedges amount to 37% in our portfolio (increased compared to last week).
Top 5 Weekly Portfolio Performers
ProShares UltraPro Short Russell 2000 +9.6% (3 times inverse the Russell 2000 ETF)
Responsible Investor is a weekly newsletter and an Apple/Spotify podcast for those who are interested in investing responsibly. Go to responsibleinvestor.dk for more information and to read our disclaimer. This week’s newsletter is titled “What caused the big rally on Friday?”, and was written on October 7th, 2023.
Weekly summary in a paragraph
The US stock market indices were mixed this week, as US treasury yields kept rising while the recently strong oil prices fell substantially. The European stock market managed to stay afloat and was helped by the first signs of dollar weakening in weeks. The 2-10y spread tightened significantly this week and is still inverted at -30 basis points. In economic data, there were strong job reports on Tuesday and Friday as well as ISM non-manufacturing data almost in line. In corporate news, McCormick and Levi’s published disappointing earnings reports while Constellation Brands beat expectations. Next week the first significant batch of Q3 earnings will come in, as large US banks such as JP Morgan, Wells Fargo and Citi report.
Asset classes weekly performance
This week the Dow finished -0.3% lower (+0.8% year to date) while the S&P500 gained +0.5% (+12.2% year to date), the Nasdaq rose +1.6% (+28.3% year to date) and the Russell 2000 gave up -2.2% (-0.9% year to date). Gold finished -1.0% lower (flat year to date) while Silver lost -3.0% (-10.4% year to date). Crude Oil tanked -6.8% (+9.8% year to date). The 10-y US treasury yield rose +2.2% (+26.1% year to date). The European stock market was barely higher at +0.1% (+8.7% year to date). The Euro gained +0.26% against the US Dollar (-1.10% year to date).
Weekly pitch
It was a fairly negative week on the stock market as several positive jobs report came in better than expected leaving investors little chances to hope for a shift in monetary policy. Oversold conditions worsened at the start of the week and the S&P500 approached its 200-day moving average. And yet, despite the very strong report on Friday, the US markets staged a significant rally probably due to the average hourly earnings coming in cooler than expected. Investors can be unreasonably selective in terms of which data to base their decisions on. In the medium term, however, yields and inflation data are likely to affect where the markets go from here. In the long term, earnings and earnings expectations drive stocks. Responsible Investors should exercise caution and maintain a healthy proportion of their portfolio in cash and hedges as well as a diversified portfolio with some exposure to the European stock marketand to emerging markets.
Weekly Portfolio Update
Here are this week’s movements: we have taken partial profits on our Halliburton long position (+30.4%). We have accumulated on our Boeing, Newmont Mining, Brazil ETF and silver ETF long position. Sell stops were triggered on our Desktop Metal long position. Cash, US treasury bills, precious metals and hedges amount to 37% in our portfolio (decreased compared to last week).
Top 5 Weekly Portfolio Performers
Foot Locker +14.1% (Apparel)
ProShares UltraPro Short Russell 2000 +6.6% (3x inverse the Russell 2000)
Google +5.2% (Tech)
Meta Platforms +5.1% (Tech)
Walt Disney +2.3% (Entertainment)
Portfolio Asset Allocation
US stocks long positions 49% (unchanged)
EU stocks long positions 8.5% (unchanged)
Emerging markets long positions 5.0% (increased)
US stocks short positions 0.5% (reduced)
Hedges 7.5% (unchanged)
Silver & Gold 2.5% (increased)
US Treasury bills 2% (unchanged)
Cash 25.0% (decreased)
1-year Portfolio Performance
Our portfolio performance over the last 12 months is +9.2% (excl. dividends) vs the S&P500 gain of +15.1%.
Responsible Investor is a weekly newsletter and an Apple/Spotify podcast for those who are interested in investing responsibly. Go to responsibleinvestor.dk for more information and to read our disclaimer. This week’s newsletter is titled “Will oversold conditions help the stock market?”, and was written on September 30th, 2023.
Weekly summary in a paragraph
The US stock market indices were mixed this week, as US treasury yields rose and portfolio managers increased spending as part of the end of quarter ‘window dressing’. The European stock market fell for the second week in a row despite better thank expected inflation data in the Eurozone. The 2-10y spread tightened significantly this week and is still inverted at -44 basis points. A strong jobs report and cooler than expected PCE data were this week’s highlights in terms of US economic data. In corporate news, Micron and Accenture guided lower while Nike jumped on strong guidance. Despite the vast majority of the S&P500 companies having now reported Q2 earnings, there are still notable ones due to be published next week such as McCormick, Tilray, Constellation Brands and Levi’s.
Asset classes weekly performance
This week the Dow finished -1.3% lower (+1.1% year to date) while the S&P500 lost -0.7% (+11.7% year to date), the Nasdaq rose +0.1% (+26.3% year to date) and the Russell 2000 gained +0.5% (+1.4% year to date). Gold finished -3.7% lower (-3.2% year to date) while Silver tanked -4.3% (-10.9% year to date). Crude Oil gained +1.2% (+20.4% year to date). The 10-y US treasury yield rose +0.7% (+20.6% year to date). The European stock market gave up -1.3% (+8.6% year to date). The Euro lost -0.68% against the US Dollar (-1.26% year to date).
Weekly pitch
Technical analysis can help assess the market direction from time to time. With the market currently in oversold conditions, there is a fair chance of a bounce. This week’s performance was masked by end of quarter movements. New money pours in at the beginning of the month which might sustain the stock market at the beginning of next week. In the medium term, however, yields are likely to affect where the markets go from here. In the long term, earnings and earnings expectations drive stocks. Responsible Investors should exercise caution and maintain a healthy proportion of their portfolio in cash and hedges as well as a diversified portfolio with some exposure to the European stock marketand to emerging markets.
Weekly Portfolio Update
Here are this week’s movements: we have taken full profits on our Ross Stores short position (+8.5%). We have initiated a long position on Boeing and a consumer staples ETF, and accumulated on our Newmont Mining long position. Cash, US treasury bills, precious metals and hedges amount to 38% in our portfolio (decreased compared to last week).
Top 5 Weekly Portfolio Performers
The Gap +6.9% (Apparel)
Callon Petroleum +5.5% (Oil)
ProShares UltraPro Short Dow 30 +4.4% (3x inverse the Dow)
Responsible Investor is a weekly newsletter and an Apple/Spotify podcast for those who are interested in investing responsibly. Go to responsibleinvestor.dk for more information and to read our disclaimer. This week’s newsletter is titled “What does a rising 10-year yield mean for the stock market?”, and was written on September 23rd, 2023.
Weekly summary in a paragraph
The US stock market indices finished markedly lower this week, as the Fed decided to pause interest rate hikes at its September FOMC meeting and the ‘dot plot’ alluded to a ‘higher-for longer’ monetary policy. The European stock market returned to losses on news of economic slowdown within the region and particularly in France. The 2-10y spread tightened slightly this week and is still inverted at -66 basis points. It was a slow news week in terms of economic data. In corporate news, both Stitch Fix and Fedex rose on a Q2 earnings beat while Kb Home slumped. Despite the vast majority of the S&P500 companies having now reported Q2 earnings, there are still notable ones due to be published next week such as Nike, Carnival, Micron and Costco. Accenture will report its Q3 earnings, also.
Asset classes weekly performance
This week the Dow finished -1.9% lower (+2.5% year to date) while the S&P500 lost -2.9% (+12.5% year to date), the Nasdaq gave up -3.6% (+26.2% year to date) and the Russell 2000 fell -3.8% (+0.9% year to date). Gold finished -0.4% lower (+1.0% year to date) while Silver gained +1.4% (-5.2% year to date). Crude Oil lost -0.3% (+19.8% year to date). The 10-y US treasury yield jumped +2.8% (+17.0% year to date). The European stock market gave up -2.5% (+10.0% year to date). The Euro lost -0.19% against the US Dollar (-0.58% year to date).
Weekly pitch
The risk-off experienced this week was driven by the sell-off in US bonds, particularly in the 10-year which reached the 4.5% yield mark. This is particularly negative for long duration stocks as their price to earnings ratio is harmed by rising yields. Long duration stocks include tech stocks as well as speculative stocks. Should the Fed continue to exert pressure on interest rates for longer this will end up hurting the stock market and reduce valuations. Responsible Investors should exercise caution and maintain a healthy proportion of their portfolio in cash and hedges as well as a diversified portfolio with some exposure to the European stock marketand to emerging markets.
Weekly Portfolio Update
Here are this week’s movements: we have taken full profits on our Academy Sports and Outdoors short position (+9.8%) and partial profits on our Ross Stores short position (+6.1%) as well as our triple inverse Nasdaq ETF long position (+2.4%). Sells stops were trigger on our HRB short position. Cash, US treasury bills, precious metals and hedges amount to 39% in our portfolio (increased compared to last week).
Top 5 Weekly Portfolio Performers
ProShares UltraPro Short Russell 2000 +11.3% (3x inverse the Russell 2000)
iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures TM +10.7% (Volatility ETF)
ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ +8.8% (3x inverse the Nasdaq)
ProShares UltraPro Short Dow 30 +5.1% (3x inverse the Dow)
iShares Silver Trust +2.3% (Silver ETF)
Portfolio Asset Allocation
US stocks long positions 47% (increased)
EU stocks long positions 8.5% (unchanged)
Emerging markets long positions 4.5% (unchanged)
US stocks short positions 1.0% (reduced)
Hedges 7.5% (reduced)
Silver & Gold 2% (unchanged)
US Treasury bills 2% (unchanged)
Cash 27.5% (increased)
1-year Portfolio Performance
Our portfolio performance over the last 12 months is +13.2% (excl. dividends) vs the S&P500 gain of +15.0%.
Responsible Investor is a weekly newsletter and an Apple/Spotify podcast for those who are interested in investing responsibly. Go to responsibleinvestor.dk for more information and to read our disclaimer. This week’s newsletter is titled “Did the ECB send a bullish signal to the stock market?”, and was written on September 16th, 2023.
Weekly summary in a paragraph
The US stock market indices finished mostly lower this week, except the Dow which rose marginally in a week which was affected by a significant sell-off on Friday despite the success of the ARM IPO. The European stock market ended its 6-week negative streak and returned to gains despite the euro continued weakness relative to the dollar. The ECB hiked interest rates by another 0.25%. The 2-10y spread tightened slightly this week and is still inverted at -69 basis points. In economic data, the core inflation (CPI) as well as the inflation at producer level (PPI) are running hotter than expected. Retails sales data were also strong which indicates further borrowing by the consumer. In corporate news, both Adobe and Lennar dipped despite beating Q2 earnings expectations. The launch of the new Apple models and the French ban on the iPhone 12 did not help the stock which fell this week. Despite the vast majority of the S&P500 companies having now reported Q2 earnings, there are still notable ones due to be published next week such as Stitch Fix, Autozone, General Mills, Fedex and Kb Home.
Asset classes weekly performance
This week the Dow finished +0.1% higher (+4.4% year to date) while the S&P500 lost -0.2% (+15.9% year to date), the Nasdaq gave up -0.4% (+31.0% year to date) and the Russell 2000 fell -0.2% (+4.9% year to date). Gold finished -0.1% lower (+1.0% year to date) while Silver lost -0.3% (-7.2% year to date). Crude Oil gained +4.5% (+20.3% year to date). The 10-y US treasury yield rose +0.8% (+14.0% year to date). The European stock market gained +0.8% (+12.9% year to date). The Euro lost -0.52% against the US Dollar (-0.45% year to date).
Weekly pitch
One of the ways central banks fight inflation is through increasing interest rates. Both the Fed and the ECB have been using this weapon over the past months. Following this week’s inflation data, there is now a 40% chance that the Fed will hike again in November. The ECB just hiked interest rates this week though the significant news is that it suggested it may be done for this cycle. This is a bullish signal for the stock market and also for the bonds of the EU member states. Responsible Investors should exercise caution and maintain a healthy proportion of their portfolio in cash and hedges as well as a diversified portfolio with some exposure to the European stock marketand to emerging markets.
Weekly Portfolio Update
No movements this week. Cash, US treasury bills, precious metals and hedges amount to 38.5% in our portfolio (unchanged compared to last week). It was a good week for our precious metals stocks.
Top 5 Weekly Portfolio Performers
Sibanye Stillwater +16.7% (Precious metals)
ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ +5.3% (3x inverse the Nasdaq)
MP Materials +4.4% (Rare-earth materials)
Newmont Mining +3.6% (Precious metals)
Denbury Resources +3.3% (Oil)
Portfolio Asset Allocation
US stocks long positions 44.5% (unchanged)
EU stocks long positions 8.5% (unchanged)
Emerging markets long positions 4.5% (unchanged)
US stocks short positions 4.0% (unchanged)
Hedges 8.0% (unchanged)
Silver & Gold 2% (unchanged)
US Treasury bills 2% (unchanged)
Cash 26.5% (unchanged)
1-year Portfolio Performance
Our portfolio performance over the last 12 months is +11.8% (excl. dividends) vs the S&P500 gain of +14.1%.
Responsible Investor is a weekly newsletter and an Apple/Spotify podcast for those who are interested in investing responsibly. Go to responsibleinvestor.dk for more information and to read our disclaimer. This week’s newsletter is titled “Which three factors are putting pressure on the stock market?”, and was written on September 9th, 2023.
Weekly summary in a paragraph
The US stock market indices finished lower this week, with the Russell 2000 and the Nasdaq underperforming the other indices in a shorter week of trading. The European stock market dropped significantly on stagflation fears due to weak economic data and rising oil prices. The 2-10y spread widened slightly this week and is still inverted at -72 basis points. In economic data, the ISM non-manufacturing index came in higher than expected: while this is good for the economy it may signal that inflation is picking up again which would be bad news for the stock market. In corporate news, Kroger and DocuSign beat Q2 earnings expectations. The Apple stock is under pressure on news of the Chinese government banning government workers from using iphones for official work. Despite the vast majority of the S&P500 companies having now reported Q2 earnings, there are still notable ones due to be published next week such as Oracle, Adobe and Lennar.
Asset classes weekly performance
This week the Dow finished -0.4% lower (+4.3% year to date) while the S&P500 lost -1.1% (+16.1% year to date), the Nasdaq gave up -2% (+31.5% year to date) and the Russell 2000 tanked -2.5% (+5.1% year to date). Gold finished -0.5% lower (+0.9% year to date) while Silver lost -2.8% (-7.6% year to date). Crude Oil gained +0.6% (+15.1% year to date). The 10-y US treasury yield gave up -0.2% (+12.3% year to date). The European stock market lost -2.8% (+12.0% year to date). The Euro lost -0.69% against the US Dollar (-0.1% year to date).
Weekly pitch
Rising oil, rising yields, and rising dollar are putting downward pressure on the stock markets. Oil prices have had a good run lately mostly due to cuts announced by Russia and Saudi Arabia: this is an inflationary situation. Rising yield are tough for long-duration stocks and negatively impact on investments. A rising dollar puts pressure on the emerging markets and reduces the appeal of US exports. If these weren’t enough, weakness in some of the stocks which have a significant market share in China are also behind this week’s drop in the stock market. Responsible Investors should exercise caution and maintain a healthy proportion of their portfolio in cash and hedges as well as a diversified portfolio with some exposure to the European stock marketand to emerging markets.
Weekly Portfolio Update
Here are this week’s movements: we have closed our long position on Desktop Metal (+8.1%). We have also initiated long positions on STEM, Kenvue and Gilead Sciences as well as short positions on Academy Sports and Outdoors, Ross Stores and H&R Block. Cash, US treasury bills, precious metals and hedges amount to 38.5% in our portfolio (reduced compared to last week).
Top 5 Weekly Portfolio Performers
ProShares UltraPro Short Russell 2000 +11.5% (3x inverse the Russell 2000)
Centene +6.8% (Managed Healthcare)
ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ +4.3% (3x inverse the Nasdaq)
Halliburton +3.7% (Oil Services)
Denbury Resources +2.6% (Oil)
Portfolio Asset Allocation
US stocks long positions 44.5% (increased)
EU stocks long positions 8.5% (unchanged)
Emerging markets long positions 4.5% (unchanged)
US stocks short positions 4.0% (increased)
Hedges 8.0% (unchanged)
Silver & Gold 2% (unchanged)
US Treasury bills 2% (unchanged)
Cash 26.5% (reduced)
1-year Portfolio Performance
Our portfolio performance over the last 12 months is +9.0% (excl. dividends) vs the S&P500 gain of +11.3%.