Recent market behavior highlights that critical price action is increasingly occurring outside regular trading hours, with $SPY and $SPX reflecting moves that are not always visible on standard charts. A sharp premarket dip into a key support zone was followed by stabilization after President Trump signaled progress in potential talks with Iran and delayed military action.
Despite optimism from U.S. leadership, Iran continues to publicly deny negotiations, while mediators such as Egypt, Turkey, and Pakistan indicate both sides remain far apart. This ongoing uncertainty is keeping volatility elevated.
Market internals show mixed signals. Volume has risen over the past two sessions but remains insufficient to confirm a sustained trend, while RSI hovers near oversold levels, suggesting potential for further swings.
Investors are advised to focus more on oil than equities. While momentum-driven traders remain bullish on stocks, oil prices are rising, reflecting persistent concerns about possible escalation in the Middle East.
On the macro front, European manufacturing data surprised to the upside, with PMIs across major economies moving into expansion territory despite geopolitical tensions. In contrast, services data showed softness. India’s PMI data came in below expectations, reflecting sensitivity to energy costs, though a resolution in the conflict could provide upside. Key stocks to watch include $FDX $SMCI $NVDA.
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