Nvidia shares, tracked by $NVDA, surged after blockbuster earnings but remain within a broader “coiled spring” formation, signaling unresolved tension in the market. The stock briefly moved above the psychological $200 level before pulling back as selling emerged. RSI indicates overbought conditions, raising the risk of a pause, though strong momentum could delay any meaningful retracement.
Nvidia delivered results well above already elevated expectations. Q4 revenue reached $68.1B versus $66.23B consensus, EPS came in at $1.62 versus $1.54 expected, and Q1 revenue guidance of about $78B topped forecasts. Gross margins near 75% and bullish commentary from CEO Jensen Huang reinforced AI demand strength. Still, heavy ownership may limit incremental buying despite exceptional performance.
In software, $CRM also beat estimates and announced a $50B buyback, yet shares fell as investors remain concerned about AI disruption to traditional business models. The broader market continues to coil despite multiple potential catalysts having passed.
Probabilities remain balanced: roughly 30% for an upside breakout, 35% for a downside move, and 35% for continued range-bound or false breaks. Jobless claims were steady, and PPI data is next. Bitcoin sentiment has swung sharply positive, lifting $BTC, while $SPY and $QQQ hover near critical levels.
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