The S&P 500, tracked by $SPY, is coiling on the weekly chart, resembling a compressed spring that historically precedes a significant move. While direction remains uncertain, several near-term catalysts could trigger volatility. President Trump’s State of the Union address, $NVDA earnings tomorrow, and key SaaS reports including $CRM are all potential market movers. Nvidia’s results are especially critical given AI’s dominant influence on equities.
Momentum has weakened, with RSI signaling fading internal strength. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon has warned that rising credit risk mirrors conditions seen before the 2008 downturn, raising caution flags. Meanwhile, sharp reactions continue across individual names. IBM recently dropped on fears AI tools will disrupt legacy systems, though broader AI and hybrid cloud exposure remains significant.
AI disruption is also pressuring IT outsourcing firms, while speculative momentum favorites such as Hims & Hers have collapsed after weak guidance, dampening retail enthusiasm. Conversely, Home Depot delivered solid earnings, offering reassurance on consumer resilience.
In semiconductors, Meta’s multibillion-dollar chip deal with AMD signals diversification away from Nvidia, with longer-term implications for AI competition. Globally, Japan’s rate outlook and carry trade dynamics remain important. Bitcoin weakness is further cooling speculative sentiment. Key tickers to watch: $SPY, $NVDA, $CRM, $AMD, and $META.
Responsible Investor 